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How I Did: My Prediction Tally

January 24, 2012 Leave a comment

Before I start my endless rant about how much these Oscar nominations have ruined my day, any potentially my life (it’s still too soon), I’ll just give a brief rundown of how I did. Sort of good in some places, really bad in others. I’ll try to put a cap on my emotions, as well, and save that for my reactions so we can move this along.

Yet, I cannot stop myself from asking if we could just bring on next year, please? NOW…

BEST PICTURE: 7/9 + 1st alternate (not bad)
Had I only bumped “The Tree of Life” up above “Bridesmaids” in my rankings, I’d have one more, but I won’t cheat and say that I saw it coming. And really, at this point in the game, who really saw “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”? I feel like the Academy had their own private, sick, inside joke going on with that one.

BEST DIRECTOR – 4/5 + 1st alternate (I’ll take it, but damn it!)
Lying in bed last night, all I could think of was how I knew I was wrong not to predict Malick. You can ask my girlfriend, because I was pretty sure I was thinking aloud and she kept telling me to shut up.

BEST ACTOR – 4/5 (I’ll take it)
Demien Bechir’s surprise nomination is less of a sting since I am very proud of myself for staying out on a limb with that Gary Oldman prediction. Kudos to myself and everyone else who did the same.

BEST ACTRESS – 4/5 + 1st alternate (I guess I’ll take it)
The other thing that I was fumbling with in my mind, last night, was Rooney Mara. She was just too exciting of a performance for the Academy to pass up. Certainly didn’t expect her to oust Swinton, though. Brutal.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – 4/5 (I’ll take it, but wow)
Once again, I don’t think anybody saw Max von Sydow coming, at least not at this point in the game. Very proud to have stuck with Jonah Hill. I always had an inkling suspicion that the lack of a SAG nomination for Albert Brooks was going to kill him, but never really believed that the Academy would go that far.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – 4/5 + 2nd alternate (I’ll take it)
I knew that Shailene Woodley would fall off, but didn’t figure on the Academy giving the full cold shoulder to “Shame.” No accounting for taste, I guess. McTeer takes the spot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – 4/5 (I’ll take it…grrr)
The roughest category to predict, this year, so I think I came out all right. I could really kick myself in the ear for not predicting one of my favorite scripts from 2011, “Margin Call.”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – 3/5 + 1st alternate (could have done better)
I wrestled a lot with “Tinker, Tailor” taking out “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” but didn’t quite make it there. Certainly thought that “Hugo”‘s screenplay would drop before “The Help.”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – 2/5 (ashamed of myself)
All right. This category is a holy mess. I think I have to give props to Kris Tapley and Guy Lodge at In Contention for sticking to their guns on “Adventures of Tintin” not being considered animated due to its motion capture status. The rest of this…what a pile of unpredictability.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – 5/5 (take a bow)
Ha. Who knew that the branch I’d nail would be one of the Academy’s most unpredictable. Pat on the back for me.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – 2/5 + 1st alternate (could have done better)
You know, while I’m not a fan of my overall performance in this category, I really have to give myself props for being one of the only prognosticators around predicting “If a Tree Falls.” A true dark horse that I nailed. And let’s be real, the absence of “Project Nim” is the most surprising snub of the morning.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – 5/5 (take a bow)
All right, I once again have to give it up for me. Not as difficult of a category, but I knew that the AMPAS wouldn’t give Janusz the cold shoulder like the ASC did.

BEST EDITING – 4/5 + 1st alternate (I’ll take it)
Agh! So close. It looks like “The Descendants” campaign to not get hit by the editing jinx paid off. At least this proves that “War Horse” will not win Best Picture.

BEST ART DIRECTION – 3/5 (could have done better)
Some surprises here. It seems the snub of “War Horse” from the ADG didn’t mean anything, after all. The one and only below-the-line nom for “Midnight in Paris.”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN – 3/5 + 1st and 2nd alternates (could have done better)
Wow, my alternates reigned supreme in this category. Quite shocked about “The Help” missing, here. The most colorful of the bunch. They really seem to have gone for drab, this year.

BEST SOUND MIXING – 3/5 + 1st alternate (could have done better)
After all the sound guilds crowning “Super 8” their king, it runs up completely empty. Ain’t that a bitch?

BEST SOUND EDITING – 3/5 + 2nd alternate (could have done better)
A lot of diversity from the above column on display. Sure is a good thing they upped their nomination count…so they can look exactly like their older brother.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – 4/5 (I’ll take it)
“Captain America”…(sigh)…I don’t want to talk about it. Damn you, David Cohen of Variety. At least “The Tree of Life” didn’t make it and making me look like the biggest fool for not predicting it. For that, I’m happy with how I did, here.

BEST MAKEUP – 2/3 + 2nd alternate (I will take it)
Knew those first two would make it in, but very surprised that “The Artist” juggernaut missed here, and that the monster that is “Hugo” didn’t take its place.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – 3/5 + 1st and 2nd alternates (could have done better)
Wow. Had I just stuck with my gut and switched around my alternates, I’d be a happy man in this category. Too bad. Looks like John Williams is going to cancel himself out again. Guess he can blame Steven Spielberg and his multi-movie years.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – 0/2
You know what, we’re not even going to do this. Go jump off of a bridge, AMPAS Song Branch. You’re a disgrace to movies and life, itself.

And I was going to try and keep emotion out of it.

Well, my total tally of just predictions alone turned out to be: 73/104, which puts me at about 70%.

If you count my 1st alternates as a 1/2 correct choice and 2nd alternates as 1/4, my total is: 78.75, making my average 76%.

If we just discount the bullshit Original Song category, all together, which we should: 73/102, and that’s 72%.

Granted, I’m not really allowed to do those last two options, but damn it, I should. Last year, I ended up with just over 75%, so this year is definitely a bit of a dip in my professional status. Oh well. Shake it off. Next time you hear from me, I will likely be venting my head off. If you’re just waking up, go back to sleep. It’s not worth it.

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Awards Tally: “The King’s Speech” vs. “The Social Network”

I have one more post to make before I call it a tentative wrap on 2010. There aren’t many questions left unanswered when it comes to the results of this year’s Oscars. “The Social Network” deserved the top honors. Tom Hooper shouldn’t have been allowed near the stage. I could preach my opinions about these two films all day long and still only be able to convince myself. Therefore, I find it worthwhile to offer some hard data to support my claims.

I’ve posted tallies cataloging “The Social Network”‘s record-breaking sweep through the awards. However, now that it has lost the big prize to another film, I figure that it’s only fair to put the two movies side by side and see how they stack up against each other. Then, we’ll just let the evidence speak for itself as to which is really the best film of the year.

This is a list of the awards that both “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” won leading up to Oscar night:

 

BEST PICTURE

 

“THE SOCIAL NETWORK”

African American Film Critics Association
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Boston Society of Film Critics
Broadcast Film Critics Association
Central Ohio Film Critics Association (runner-up)
Chicago Film Critics Association
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Denver Film Critics Society
Detroit Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Golden Globes
Houston Film Critics Society
Indiana Film Journalists Association
International Press Academy
Iowa Film Critics
Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
London Film Critics Society
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
National Board of Review
National Society of Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Online
Oklahoma City Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics Society
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Toronto Film Critics Association
Utah Film Critics Association
Vancouver Film Critics Circle
Washington D.C. Film Critics Association

 

“THE KING’S SPEECH”

British Academy of Film and Television
British Independent Film Awards
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Producers Guild of America

 

While we’re at it, let’s take a closer look at the Best Director race:

 

BEST DIRECTOR

 

DAVID FINCHER

Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Boston Society of Film Critics
British Academy of Film and Television
Broadcast Film Critics Association
Chicago Film Critics Association
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Denver Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Golden Globes
Houston Film Critics Society
Indiana Film Journalists Association
International Press Academy
Iowa Film Critics
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
London Film Critics Society
Los Angeles Film Critics Association (TIE with Carlos Assayas)
National Board of Review
National Society of Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Online
Oklahoma City Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics Society
San Francisco Film Critics Circle (TIE with Darren Aronofsky)
Southeastern Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Toronto Film Critics Association
Utah Film Critics Association
Vancouver Film Critics Circle
Washington D.C. Film Critics Association

 

TOM HOOPER

Director’s Guild of America

 

So, what do we have, here? The score for Best Picture is 32 to 4 in favor of “The Social Network.” If that wasn’t enough for you, take a look at the scores for Best Director: David Fincher = 29 wins / Tom Hooper = 1 win. That kind of data doesn’t really even need my help to interpret it. It lays it out, clear and simple, that “The Social Network” is the best-reviewed film of the year, the most highly-acclaimed film of the year and the most-awarded film of the year. In other words: the best film of the year. Live with that, Academy.

“The Social Network” Updated Awards Tally

January 8, 2011 1 comment

You know, it’s true that “The Social Network” is my favorite movie of this year and many others. It’s probably in my Top 5 films of the last 20 years. However, that’s not why I am posting this. People really need to understand the precedent that is being set here. Never in the history of film has a movie been so unanimously praised as this one.

Every year there is a critical darling. Last year, at this point last year, “The Hurt Locker” has won 12 Best Picture awards, as has “Slumdog Millionaire.” “No Country for Old Men” was the only one that came close with 20 wins. “The Social Network” has 25 Best Picture wins under its belt. Not to mention, it is also the first film in nearly 15 years to win the “Big Four,” meaning the NYFCC, LAFCA, NBR and NSFC (L.A. Confidential was the last film to do that, and before that, Schindler’s List).

This has been a bigger critical coronation than ever there was one, and it’s really something to admire and remember.

Here’s the full list of main awards that it has won:

BEST PICTURE

WINS
African American Film Critics Association
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Boston Society of Film Critics
Broadcast Film Critics Association
Central Ohio Film Critics Association (runner-up)
Chicago Film Critics Association
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Detroit Film Critics Society
Florida Film Critics Circle
Hollywood Foreign Press Association
Houston Film Critics Society
Indiana Film Journalists Association
International Press Academy
Iowa Film Critics
Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
National Board of Review
National Society of Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Online
Oklahoma City Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics Society
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Toronto Film Critics Association
Utah Film Critics Association
Vancouver Film Critics Circle
Washington D.C. Film Critics Association

NOMINATIONS
Austin Film Critics Association
London Film Critics Circle (not yet awarded)
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Producers Guild of America (not yet awarded)
San Diego Film Critics

BEST DIRECTOR

WINS
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Boston Society of Film Critics
Broadcast Film Critics Association
Chicago Film Critics Association
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Florida Film Critics Circle
Hollywood Foreign Press Association
Houston Film Critics Society
Indiana Film Journalists Association
International Press Academy
Iowa Film Critics
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Los Angeles Film Critics Association (TIE with Carlos Assayas)
National Board of Review
National Society of Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Online
Oklahoma City Film Critics Circle
Online Film Critics Society
San Francisco Film Critics Circle (TIE with Darren Aronofsky)
Southeastern Film Critics Association
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Toronto Film Critics Association
Utah Film Critics Association
Vancouver Film Critics Circle
Washington D.C. Film Critics Association

NOMINATIONS
Austin Film Critics Association
Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Detroit Film Critics Society
London Film Critics Circle (not yet awarded)
Phoenix Film Critics Society
San Diego Film Critics

BEST ACTOR

WINS
Boston Society of Film Critics
Houston Film Critics Society
Indiana Film Journalists Association (runner-up)
National Board of Review
National Society of Film Critics
Oklahoma City Film Critics Circle
Toronto Film Critics Association
Utah Film Critics Association

NOMINATIONS
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Broadcast Film Critics Association
Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Chicago Film Critics Association
Detroit Film Critics Society
Hollywood Foreign Press Association
International Press Academy
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
London Film Critics Circle (not yet awarded)
Online Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
San Diego Film Critics
Screen Actors Guild Award (not yet awarded)
St. Louis Film Critics Association
Vancouver Film Critics Circle

BEST SCREENPLAY

WINS
Alliance of Women Film Journalists (adapted)
Austin Film Critics Association (adapted)
Boston Society of Film Critics
Broadcast Film Critics Association
Central Ohio Film Critics Association (adapted)
Chicago Film Critics Association
Dallas-Forth Worth Film Critics Association
Florida Film Critics Circle (adapted)
Hollywood Foreign Press Association
Houston Film Critics Society
Indiana Film Journalists Association
International Press Academy
Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
National Board of Review
National Society of Film Critics
New York Film Critics Online
Oklahoma City Film Critics Circle (adapted)
Online Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
San Diego Film Critics Society (adapted)
San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Southeastern Film Critics Association (adapted)
St. Louis Film Critics Association (adapted)
Toronto Film Critics Association (adapted)
Utah Film Critics Association
Vancouver Film Critics Circle
Washington D.C. Film Critics Association (adapted)

NOMINATIONS
London Film Critics Circle (not yet awarded)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

WINS
Alliance of Women Film Journalists
Broadcast Film Critics Association
Central Ohio Film Critics Association (runner-up)
Hollywood Foreign Press Association
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Los Angeles Film Critics Association (TIE w/The Ghost Writer)
St. Louis Film Critics Association

NOMINATIONS
Chicago Film Critics Association
Houston Film Critics Association
International Press Academy
San Diego Film Critics Society
Washington Film Critics Association

Congrats, “Social Network.” You earned it.