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Oscar Winner Predictions: The Impossibility of Reason
I’ve taken somewhat of a backseat to much of this year’s Oscars and how they’ve unfolded. Maybe I don’t have as much time on my hands anymore, or perhaps I’m getting a little bit lazy. However, there’s also the immutable fact that this is, without a doubt, the weirdest Oscars I’ve ever bore witness to. Pundits like myself have bitched and moaned for years about the Oscar race becoming a predictable formality. Now, we’ve had so many wrenches thrown into the works that all of the precedents, reason and logic have just gone clear out the window. 2012 is the ultimate crapshoot.
Perhaps it’s a good thing, overall. Because while this year’s awards season has spiraled into an enormous whirlwind of indecision and confusion, I believe we can all find a consensus in the overwhelming class and quality that was on display in filmmaking during the past year. I can’t have enough good things to say about 2012 and I believe it will go down as shining star in the chronology of cinematic history, up there with the likes of 2001, 1980, 1976, 1960 and, of course, 1939. I also believe that, in some way, the less focus on awards and accolades, we can foresee that it’s ultimately the movies that we’ll remember decades from now, while fiasco over the gold will simply be an afterthought.
Nevertheless, at it’s roots, this is an awards site and it’s time to get down to business. Bottom line, the award for Best Picture (and more than a few others) was completely thrown for a loop the morning that the nominations were announced, when two of the year’s biggest heavyweights were absent from the shortlist. Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow being left in the cold was perhaps the strangest occurrence in this category since Ang Lee and Ron Howard failed to receive nominations for their respective work back in 1995 (“Apollo 13” and “Sense and Sensibility”). Yet, this may have overall worked in Affleck’s favor, for since that morning, every critic, actor, producer, director, grip, PA and their mother has seemed to fall head over heels for the film. At this point, it seems that enough voters will sway towards “Argo” for the Best Picture, out of sheer sympathy, more than anything else. It doesn’t hurt that it’s also a fantastically entertaining and uplifting piece that pulls at Oscar’s heartstrings like a toddler on a hoop earring.
Meanwhile, there’s a flip-side to every equation. “Argo” may have taken every award since that fateful morning, yet that doesn’t change the fact that the snub still happened. Affleck missing out on Best Director makes a huge statement. It has to be more than just a fluke or the notion of the Academy leaning so heavily on what the guilds have done in the past. Plus, while one can compare the strangeness of this year’s circumstances to ’95, it’s important to be reminded how that year turned out, with neither Lee or Howard taking home the big prize at the end of the night. For now, I’ll go with the odds-on favorite, but can easily see the winds shifting. This weekend’s WGA will may be a largely determining factor.
Alas, my first round of winner predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE: “Argo”
alternate: “Lincoln”
2013 Golden Globe Predictions
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
Winner: “Lincoln”
Alternate: “Argo”
BEST PICTURE – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Winner: “Les Miserables”
Alternate: “Silver Linings Playbook”
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
Alternate: Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Winner: Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alternate: Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Winner: Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
Alternate: Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Winner: Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alternate: Maggie Smith – “Quartet”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”
Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
Alternate: Sally Field – “Lincoln”
BEST DIRECTOR
Winner: Ben Affleck – “Argo”
Alternate: Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
BEST SCREENPLAY
Winner: “Lincoln”
Alternate: “Argo”
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: “Frankenweenie”
Alternate: “Wreck It Ralph”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Winner: “Amour”
Alternate: “The Intouchables”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: “Life of Pi”
Alternate: “Lincoln”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: “Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
Alternate: “Suddenly” from “Les Miserables”
The 85th Academy Awards Nominations
BEST PICTURE
“Amour”
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke – “Amour”
Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
David O’Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
Behn Zeitlin – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
Quvenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin – “Argo”
Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz – “Django Unchained”
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams – “The Master”
Sally Field – “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway – “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver – “Silver Linings Playbook”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“Flight”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Amour” – Austria
“Kon-Tiki” – Norway
“No” – Chile
“A Royal Affair” – Denmark
“War Witch” – Canada
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Invisible War”
“Searching for Sugar Man”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”
“The Pirates! Band of Misfits”
“Wreck-It Ralph”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Anna Karenina”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
BEST EDITING
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Anna Karenina”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Mirror Mirror”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
“Argo”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
BEST SOUND EDITING
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice”
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from “Ted”
“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Anna Karenina”
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
Final Predictions for the 85th Academy Awards
With the clock ticking, unfortunately, there’s not much time for discussion or justification. I’m just going to have to spit these out and see what happens in a matter of hours. Enjoy, and don’t forget to check back to see the results in the morning.
BEST PICTURE
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Silver Linings Playbook”
6. “Life of Pi”
7. “Moonrise Kingdom”
8. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
9. “Skyfall”
10. “Amour”
Alt 1: Django Unchained
Alt 2: “The Master”
(NOTE: Again, Best Picture could end up being anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees, so in this case, you can use the ideology of “if there are five…if there are six…etc”)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
3. Ben Affleck – “Argo”
4. Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
5. Tom Hooper” – “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: Michael Haneke – “Amour
Alt 2: Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”
BEST LEADING ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
2. Denzel Washington – “Flight”
3. Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
4. John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
5. Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Alt 1: Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
2. Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
3. Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
4. Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
5. Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
Alt 1: Quevenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 2: Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
3. Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. Alan Arkin – “Argo”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”
Alt 2: Christoph Waltz” – “Django Unchained”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
2. Sally Field – “Lincoln”
3. Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
4. Amy Adams – “The Master”
5. Ann Dowd – “Compliance”
Alt 1: Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Alt 2: Judi Dench – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Argo”
3. “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
5. “Life of Pi”
Alt 1: “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
Alt 2: “The Sessions”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Moonrise Kingdom”
3. “The Master”
4. “Amour”
5. “Looper”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Middle of Nowhere”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. “The Gatekeepers”
2. “The Invisible War”
3. “Searching for Sugar Man”
4. “The House I Live In”
5. “Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”
Alt 1: “How to Survive a Plague”
Alt 2: “5 Broken Cameras”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. “Brave”
2. “Frankenweenie”
3. “Wreck It Ralph”
4. “Paranorman”
5. “Rise of the Guardians”
Alt 1: “The Painting”
Alt 2: “Zarafa”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. “Amour”
2. “The Intouchables”
3. “War Witch”
4. “A Royal Affair”
5. “No”
Alt 1: “Sister”
Alt 2: “Kon Tiki”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “Lincoln”
4. “The Master”
5. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “Anna Karenina”
BEST EDITING
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Argo”
3. “Skyfall”
4. “Lincoln”
5. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: “Life of Pi”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “The Master”
5. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “The Dark Knight Rises”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Les Miserables”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “Django Unchained”
5. “Mirror Mirror”
Alt 1: “A Royal Affair”
Alt 2: “Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “Zero Dark Thirty”
4. “The Avengers”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”
Alt 1: “Lincoln”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
1. “Skyfall”
2. “The Dark Knight Rises”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Prometheus”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “John Carter”
BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS
1. “Lincoln”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Men in Black 3″
Alt 2: “Looper”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Anna Karenina”
5. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 1: “The Master”
Alt 2: “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Skyfall” – “Skyfall”
2. “Suddenly” – “Les Miserables”
3. “Learn Me Right” – “Brave”
4. “Still Alive” – “Paul Williams Still Alive”
5. “Ancora Qui” – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “From Here to the Moon and Back” – “Joyful Noise”
Alt 2: “Song of the Lonely Mountain” – “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Updated 2013 Oscar Predictions – 12/29
It’s less than two weeks left until the big morning comes, but with everything that’s happened thus far, I thought it would be a good time to re-assess things. Obviously, “Zero Dark Thirty” has largely positioned itself at the head of the pack and Daniel Day Lewis is lined up for another coronation. However, many of the major categories still seem much more open then normal.
In the next two weeks, the guilds will really start to have their say. Throughout the last decade or so, these union groups nominations have very tight links to the eventual nominations. On the other hand, this year will be a unique one. For the first time, the DGA nominations won’t be announced until after Oscar ballots are due in. Therefore, this year, the DGA, which was always believed to have a large impact on not only Best Director, but the Best Picture category as well. Or perhaps this year will prove that theory wrong, in the event that we see the two organizations line-up without any connection proves that they really do think alike. We shall see.
Here’s my latest round of predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Silver Linings Playbook”
6. “Moonrise Kingdom”
7. “Life of Pi”
8. “Amour”
9. “The Master”
10. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 1: Django Unchained
Alt 2: “Skyfall”
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
3. Ben Affleck – “Argo”
4. Tom Hooper – “Les Miserables”
5. David O’Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 1: Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
Alt 2: Michael Haneke – “Amour”
BEST LEADING ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
2. Denzel Washington – “Flight”
3. Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
4. John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
5. Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Alt 1: Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
2. Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
3. Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
4. Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
5. Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
Alt 1: Quevenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 2: Rachel Weisz – “The Deep Blue Sea”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
3. Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. Alan Arkin – “Argo”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”
Alt 2: Eddie Redmayne – “Les Miserables”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
2. Sally Field – “Lincoln”
3. Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
4. Amy Adams – “The Master”
5. Ann Dowd – “Compliance”
Alt 1: Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Alt 2: Judi Dench – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Argo”
3. “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
5. “Life of Pi”
Alt 1: “The Sessions”
Alt 2: “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “The Master”
3. “Moonrise Kingdom”
4. “Amour”
5. “Looper”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Seven Psychopaths”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. “The Gatekeepers”
2. “The Invisible War”
3. “Searching for Sugar Man”
4. “The House I Live In”
5. “Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”
Alt 1: “How to Survive a Plague”
Alt 2: “Bully”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. “Brave”
2. “Frankenweenie”
3. “Wreck It Ralph”
4. “Paranorman”
5. “Rise of the Guardians”
Alt 1: “The Painting”
Alt 2: “Zarafa”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. “Amour”
2. “The Intouchables”
3. “A Royal Affair”
4. “War Witch”
5. “Sister”
Alt 1: “No”
Alt 2: “Kon Tiki”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Master”
3. “Skyfall”
4. “Lincoln”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 1: “Les Miserables”
Alt 2: “Django Unchained”
BEST EDITING
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Argo”
3. “Lincoln”
4. “Skyfall”
5. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: “LIfe of Pi”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “The Master”
5. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “Moonrise Kingdom”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Les Miserables”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “Mirror Mirror”
5. “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “A Royal Affair”
Alt 2: “Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “The Dark Knight Rises”
4. “The Avengers”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Life of Pi”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
1. “Skyfall”
2. “The Dark Knight Rises”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Prometheus”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “John Carter”
BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS
1. “Lincoln”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Looper”
Alt 2: “Men in Black 3”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Anna Karenina”
5. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 1: “The Master”
Alt 2: “Skyfall”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Skyfall” – “Skyfall”
2. “Suddenly” – “Les Miserables”
3. “Learn Me Right” – “Brave”
4. “Still Alive” – “Paul Williams Still Alive”
5. “Ancora Qui” – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “From Here to the Moon and Back” – “Joyful Noise”
Alt 2: “Still Dream” – “Rise of the Guardians”
NOMINATIONS TALLY
12 – “Lincoln”
11 – “Les Miserables”
7 – “The Master”
7 – “Zero Dark Thirty”
6 – “Argo”
5 – “Life of Pi”
5 – “Silver Linings Playbook”
5 – “Skyfall”
4 – “Amour”
4 – “Django Unchained”
3 – “Anna Karenina”
3 – “The Avengers”
3 – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
3 – “The Dark Knight Rises”
3 – “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
2 – “Brave”
2 – “Moonrise Kingdom”
2 – “The Sessions”
2012 Academy Awards Luncheon
The annual Oscar nominees luncheon is a longstanding tradition. The awards body extends an invitation to every single recipient of a nomination of this year’s event and awards them…well, there is no award. It’s kind of a pat on the back, honor to be nominated type of thing with some free food and a photo-op. All in all, this event really serves no purpose other than placating tradition.
However, as meaningless as this luncheon is, I always get a kick out of this annual photograph. There’s something kind of nostalgic and eye-catching about seeing all of the nominees lined up, middle school yearbook-style. It also gives you the chance to brush up on your “who’s who?” of Hollywood power, including the ones that you don’t regularly see on the screen. There also exists little moments in these things that make me smile. There’s old friends Marty and Spielberg standing side-by-side on the top right. Seventeen-time legend Meryl Streep alongside the up-and-comer Rooney Mara (apparently she doesn’t smile when someone says cheese, and I love her for it) at the top left. Nick Nolte looking like a sunburned Santa Clause and that the guy doing the Gollum impression in the second row.
Enjoy this year’s edition of the “Where’s Waldo?” Oscar spread.
Click the image to resize:
DGA Predictions 2012
I really didn’t even feel like doing this. In fact, I’ve always had an aversion to predicting the DGA. Trying to correctly predict these five nominees feels a bit like shooting fish in a barrel with an unloaded gun. Sure, there’s the chance that they’ll be exactly what people are expecting, but…no…they never are. there’s always that fifth slot that never does what you want it to do.
The one nice thing about the DGA is that it makes things infinitely clearer in the actual Oscar race. I can recall only twice in the last ten years that the DGA hasn’t lined up with the Academy’s five Best Director nods with at least 4 out of 5 slots, and twice in those ten years, it’s been a perfect match. Ever since the Academy altered the number of Best Picture nominees, using the DGA as a predictive tool has changed a bit, as well. Instead of using it as a guide for the five nominees, the lucky directors now point to which films are absolute locks. Ironically, during the age of five nominees, the DGA was actually a better predictor for Best Picture then for its own category.
All right, well, here’s how I see the cookie crumbling. I would say that the two locks are Michael Hazavanicius and Martin Scorsese. Of the major contenders, they’ve divvied up nearly all of the critics awards and just seem to have the most clout, right now. Next on that list would be Alexander Payne. While his direction isn’t the strong point of the movie, the film is just too strong of a contender, thus far, for him to simply be left out.
The last two spots get kind of tricky. Despite the difficult time “War Horse” is having with the guilds, Spielberg shouldn’t have much trouble making his way in here. The same was happening with “Munich” in ’05 (a much superior film to “War Horse,” I might add) and he still handled the DGA. This seemed to single-handedly resurrect it back into the Oscar race. To be honest, the DGA has always drooled over Spielberg. Ten career nominations, three wins and a lifetime achievement award. When he has a film in contention, it’s simply more likely to see him nominated than not.
So for the final spot, I am going to make my “out on a limb” choice by saying that Woody Allen will miss. This will be the decision that I’ll likely be kicking myself for tomorrow, but as you are about to read, I have my reasons. At this point in Allen’s career, even if this is somewhat of a comeback film, I feel that the industry will be satisfied with just recognizing his writing. As it has been since the early nineties, nominating the film’s screenplay should suffice, making his directorial efforts easy to overlook.
As for who’s taking his spot, there’s plenty of choices. It’s quite possible Terrence Malick’s clout might carry over into the guild of his peers, yet I get the feeling that “The Tree of Life”‘s support will likely remain among the critics. Until this past week, near-rookie Tate Taylor seemed like a long shot, but the overwhelming love for “The Help” in the guilds has made said nomination more and more of a possibility. If wishing made it so, I would enjoy seeing Bennett Miller show up here in recognition for his steady and assured crafting of “Moneyball.” After all, not many saw his previous nomination coming for “Capote.” Yet, the young artist’s failure to bring in even a single nomination this season has left that option unlikely. One choice that would certainly throw a wrench in the mix would be the stellar Nicholas Wending Refn, who’s work on “Drive” earned him this award at Cannes. But, lack of a PGA mention for the film makes his chances less promising.
That leaves me with the one and only David Fincher. While his re-adaptation of “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” isn’t turning quite as many heads as the studio had hoped, the film’s director has something going for him which puts him a step ahead of his competition. That factor is the enormous amount of residual respect leftover from last year’s awards season. After both the DGA and the Oscars incomprehensibly snubbed the master of his much-deserved awards for “The Social Network,” I imagined that there had to be a fair amount of guilt churning around the industry. And while “TGWTDT” isn’t quite as extraordinary as the former, it’s certainly good enough for his peers to throw him an apologetic bone. I’ve had this aching feeling all year long, and with the film nabbing unexpected nominations from the PGA, ADG and WGA, said scenario seems now more likely than ever before.
My Predix:
1. Martin Scorsese – “Hugo”
2. Michael Hazavanicius – “The Artist”
3. Alexander Payne – “The Descendants”
4. Steven Spielberg – “War Horse”
5. David Fincher – “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Alts:
6. Woody Allen – “Midnight in Paris”
7. Tate Taylor – “The Help”
8. Bennett Miller – “Moneyball”
9. Terrence Malick – “The Tree of Life”
10. Nicholas Wending Refn – “Drive”
Well, there you have it. Check back tomorrow afternoon to see which choice (or choices) I’ll be crying over.
18 Official Contenders in Best Animated Film
According to the Academy’s press release, there are 18 full length films that have been submitted in the category of Best Animated Feature, this year. As some of you know, there are certain Oscars (including Visual Effects and Documentary Feature) which actually get narrowed down to a series of finalists before the big event. Here is the list of films that have a shot of being nominated in this column:
“The Adventures of Tintin”
“Alois Nebel”
“Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked”
“Arthur Christmas”
“Cars 2″
“A Cat in Paris”
“Chico & Rita”
“Gnomeo & Juliet”
“Happy Feet Two”
“Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil”
“Kung Fu Panda 2″
“Mars Needs Moms”
“Puss in Boots”
“Rango”
“Rio”
“The Smurfs”
“Winnie the Pooh”
“Wrinkles”
This list is pretty significant for two reasons. For one, the number of eligible films will dictate that there will be five nominees instead of just three. In order for that number to be assured, the Academy dictates that there must be at least fifteen qualifiers. Therefore, as long as all of these films meet their 2011 release dates, five of these films will be going to the Oscars. Since the award’s inception in 2001, we’ve only seen five nominees once in 2009 when “Up” took home the gold (wrongfully, in my opinion, over “Fantastic Mr. Fox”).
Another significant update this news seems to unveil is that “The Adventures of Tintin” will apparently compete as an animated film. Steven Spielberg and Paramount originally put up a fuss that the film should have it’s own category of motion capture media. In response, I like to quote Morgan Freeman from an Oscar round table in 2009 when he qualified “Avatar” and all motion capture projects as “basically cartoons.” Way to be a boss, Red. In the end, I suppose the film’s director conceded, perhaps realizing the film’s real potential at winning the Animated Feature award. It will likely be in a showdown with the year’s other major contender, the gorgeous yet creatively flawed “Rango,” if only since that seems to be the only other likely challenger that isn’t a hodgepodge sequel to a former winner or nominee.
Perhaps the most shocking aspect of this year’s race is that, for the first time in five years, it appears that Pixar will not be taking home the gold. To find the last time that another studio was able to take down that juggernaut, one must go all the way back to 2006 (the year “The Departed” won Best Picture, to put things in perspective) when “Happy Feet” narrowly beat out “Cars” for the Oscar. Ironically, both films have sequels competing against each other again this season. Since then, Pixar has kept knocking down the competition like bottles in a shooting gallery with films like “Ratatouille,” “WALL-E,” “Up” and “Toy Story 3.” I guess they will have to keep their seats this year and let the mantel pass to someone else.
The way this is shaping up now, I’d say our field will look like:
1. “The Adventures of Tintin”
2. “Rango”
3. “Cars 2”
4. “Puss in Boots”
5. “Happy Feet 2”
Alt 1: “Arthur Christmas”
Alt 2: “Winnie the Pooh”
In reality, the race really is down to those top two. “Cars 2” will make it in just based on the clout of it’s studio. Six months ago, “Puss in Boots” seemed like an odd choice for a contender. Yet the film is performing extremely well, barely dropping a dime in its second weekend from its opening gross. The “Happy Feet” sequel is very much up in the air right now. It will probably need to break the bank in order to stay ahead of the other dark horses.
Keep reading The Edge of the Frame for more updates to this year’s Oscar race. The finalists for Best Documentary Feature shouldn’t be too far away.
New “War Horse” Trailer and Poster
Over the summer, everyone questioned what I said when I declared that what we had seen of Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse” was only a teaser and there would surely be more to come. Well, here I stand on my own high horse with a new trailer for the upcoming film. Unfortunately, the new trailer doesn’t really seem to do much more than rearrange and expand on a lot of the footage shown in the last preview.
Many pundits, at the moment, are calling this film the frontrunner for Best Picture. While it definitely has a boatload of nominations in line, I would not put it at the front of the gate. The Oscars seem to enjoy Spielberg most at his grittiest, and this appears to be perhaps one of the most sentimental ventures he has ever made. One thing’s for sure about the film, however. It looks absolutely gorgeous. If all plays out, one award we can definitely say that “War Horse” is leading the field in is Best Cinematography. Should it win, my favorite active DP, Janusz Kaminski, would have three Oscars on his mantel, putting him among a group you could count on one hand, including Robert Surtees and the great Conrad L. Hall.
Recently, Dreamworks bumped up the release date to Christmas day. This now puts it within four days of “The Adventures of Tin Tin”‘s official opening. Mr. Spielberg does love to face off against himself. Not that he has anything to lose, really. Both films are sure to gross well over the 100 million mark. Combined with the success of “Super 8,” “Transformers 3,” “Terra Nova,” and all coupled with his reception of the David O’Selznick award from the Producers Guild, this will be a pretty good year for one of Hollywood’s greatest sons. And “Lincoln” hasn’t even started shooting yet.
Check out the new trailer, below:
The Edge of the Frame 