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The ACE, CAS and Scripter…Oh, my!

February 19, 2012 Leave a comment

Seven days left, folks. It’s the deep breath before the plunge. The last of the ballots are being finalized and pundits are making their final predictions. And while most of the race seems like a done deal, sealed and locked, there’s always the chance of a few upsets around the bend.

Aside from what I already mentioned, another event occurring in this final week is the rush for precursors to get their awards out before last call of the year. This weekend is a hornets nest of accolades being dished out almost faster than I can report them. While the Writers Guild is set to announce tonight, the other major screenplay award declared its winner yesterday evening. The USC Library Scripter, awarded each year to the finest example of adapting a film from another medium, went to Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash and novelist Kaui Hart Hemmings for “The Descendants.” Not at all a surprise, given the quality of the work. Personally I was predicting “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” to take this down. Also, the Scripter has absolutely no affiliation with the Academy or any other guild, so aside from common taste, this win has no impact on the Oscar outcome.

While “The Descendants” winning the Scripter was fairly expected, what was not was it’s simultaneous win with the American Cinema Editors. Forgive me, but this has to be one of the more outrageous and, more or less, absurd victories of the year. Going up against “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” “Hugo,” “War Horse” and, for god’s sake, “Moneyball,” the actual winner was the least deserving of any of the dramatic nominees. It’s the only film in which the editing really adds no level of complexity or character. I really have no idea what this group was thinking. In the musical/comedy category, “The Artist” very expectantly took home the prize. Originally, this award seemed like a tight race between said frontrunner and either “Hugo” or “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.” Yet, with this turn of events, it seems as though “The Artist” has a huge advantage next weekend. Add it to the pile.

The final award issued last night was the Cinema Audio Society, the guild equivalent of the Best Sound Mixing Oscar. As was largely expected, “Hugo” took this award home. This year presented a fairly odd situation, with the CAS and Oscar nominees only lining up 2/5 (only the second time in the CAS’ existence that their opinions differed so radically). However, going with statistics, NEVER since the formation of the CAS has a film won Best Sound Mixing without even being nominated by the guild. That would leave “Moneyball” and “Hugo.” With the latter winning the support from the guild, it has more than confirmed its frontrunner status. In fact a sweep of both sound categories is becoming more and more likely, but we’ll wait on the Motion Picture Sound Editors to announce, tonight.

With the WGA hours away, weighing extremely on the adapted screenplay field, I’ll make a prediction. However, my choice is definitely a lot more wishful thinking than common sense. If “Moneyball” takes this award down, it will reassert itself at the head of the pack (making me one happy pundit), although “The Descendants” is a steep wall to climb and the odds are definitely in its corner. I’ll stick with my favorite horse, though, but whatever wins here, will likely go on to Oscar gold.

Interestingly, while the adapted field will likely be decided tonight, the WGA’s Best Original Screenplay award will have little to no impact on the Oscar’s equivalent, barring any unforeseen upset. “Midnight in Paris” will likely take this award in a walk, but still move on to a dogfight next Sunday. That’s because the film’s stiffest opposition will not even be competing tonight. “The Artist,” which has basically become either the frontrunner or a threat in all of its categories, fell victim to the WGA’s strict eligibility rules. Therefore, even if Woody the Great is the winner tonight, “The Artist” just might be the odds-on favorite in seven days. It will be one of the night’s closest races for sure.

That’s all for now. Stay tuned for updates from tonight’s awards, as well as the announcement of the 2nd Annual Edgy nominations. It’s about to get interesting.

Does “The Social Network” Still Have a Chance?

February 5, 2011 Leave a comment

I recently read an article written by Steve Pond over at The Wrap, who is in the same boat as 95% of awards pundits in believing that this race is pretty much called for “The King’s Speech.” However, he outlines that there still are some outs left for “The Social Network,” particularly if it changes and ups its campaign in these last few weeks.

The film is having a great weekend, having won the USC Scripter Award last night and all but locked to win the WGA award for Best Adapted Screenplay tonight. What’s better for it is that since “The King’s Speech” wasn’t eligible for the WGA awards (even though its the best bet to win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay), it will be a weekend in which “The King’s Speech” will actually be out of the news.

Pond’s article makes some good points. I’ve highlighted a small section of it below where he discusses how “The Social Network” might have a shot in the balloting:

“The question that’ll face “The Social Network” on Sunday morning is whether it can capitalize on the small shot of momentum that comes from a pair of expected victories – and if so, how.

Columnists have been offering scenarios in recent days, ranging from S.T. Van Airsdale’s suggestion that David Fincher show that he actually wants the award to John Lopez’s theorythat the preferential system of ballot-counting – in which a film can win if it picks up enough number two and three votes from movies that are eliminated from contention – will help a critical favorite like “TSN.”

In fact, I’d guess that the preferential count will help “TKS” or even “The Fighter” or “Toy Story 3” more than “TSN.” The question to ask: among voters whose first choices are “Winter’s Bone,” “127 Hours,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “Inception” and “True Grit,” which film is likely to be ranked second? If the majority of those voters go for “Social Network,” it can pull off an upset; if they split their votes or rally behind something else, the Facebook flick is in trouble.”

You can read the full article here. And here’s to holding out hope: