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Predictions for the 90th Annual Academy Awards
Tonight may be a competition, but I’ve never been interested in racing with my predictions. Every moment counts, but the buck’s got to stop somewhere. I went 20/24 last year, which I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to top again, but we’ll see…
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BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR
WILL WIN: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
MIGHT WIN: “The Shape of Water”
MY VOTE: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Guillermo Del Toro – “The Shape of Water”
MIGHT WIN: Christopher Nolan – “Dunkirk”
MY VOTE: Christopher Nolan – “Dunkirk
SHOULD BE HERE: Darren Aronofsky – “Mother!”
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Gary Oldman – “Darkest Hour”
MIGHT WIN: Timothee Chalamet – “Call Me By Your Name”
MY VOTE: Timothee Chalamet – “Call Me By Your Name”
SHOULD BE HERE: Jeremy Renner – “Wind River”
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Frances McDormand – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
MIGHT WIN: Saoirse Ronan – “Lady Bird”
MY VOTE: Frances McDormand – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
SHOULD BE HERE: Jennifer Lawrence – “Mother!”
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
MIGHT WIN: Willem Dafoe – “The Florida Project”
MY VOTE: Sam Rockwell – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
SHOULD BE HERE: Michael Stuhlbarg – “Call Me By Your Name”
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Allison Janney – “I, Tonya”
MIGHT WIN: Laurie Metcalf – “Lady Bird”
MY VOTE: Allison Janney – “I, Tonya”
SHOULD BE HERE: Michelle Pfeiffer – “Mother!”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “Get Out”
MIGHT WIN: “Lady Bird”
MY VOTE: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Wind River”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “Call Me By Your Name”
MIGHT WIN: “Mudbound”
MY VOTE: “Call Me By Your Name”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL WIN: “A Fantastic Woman”
MIGHT WIN: “Loveless”
MY VOTE: “N/A”
SHOULD BE HERE: “N/A”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL WIN: “Faces Places”
MIGHT WIN: “Icarus”
MY VOTE: “Strong Island”
SHOULD BE HERE: “One of Us”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: “Coco”
MIGHT WIN: “Loving Vincent”
MY VOTE: Meh
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: “Blade Runner: 2049”
MIGHT WIN: “Dunkirk”
MY VOTE: “Blade Runner: 2049”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Call Me By Your Name”
BEST EDITING
WILL WIN: “Dunkirk”
MIGHT WIN: “Baby Driver”
MY VOTE: “Dunkirk”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Mother!”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
WILL WIN: “The Shape of Water”
MIGHT WIN: “Blade Runner: 2049”
MY VOTE: “Blade Runner: 2049”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: “Phantom Thread”
MIGHT WIN: “Victoria and Abdul”
MY VOTE: “Phantom Thread”
SHOULD BE HERE: “I, Tonya”
BEST SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: “Dunkirk”
MIGHT WIN: “Baby Driver”
MY VOTE: “Blade Runner: 2049”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Logan”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
WILL WIN: “Dunkirk”
MIGHT WIN: “Blade Runner: 2049”
MY VOTE: “Dunkirk”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Mother!”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: “War for the Planet of the Apes”
MIGHT WIN: “Blade Runner: 2049”
MY VOTE: “Blade Runner: 2049”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Alien Covenant”
BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
WILL WIN: “Darkest Hour”
MIGHT WIN: “Wonder”
MY VOTE: “Darkest Hour”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Bright”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: “The Shape of Water”
MIGHT WIN: “Phantom Thread”
MY VOTE: “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Blade Runner: 2049”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: “Remember Me” from “Coco”
MIGHT WIN: “This is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”
MY VOTE: “Mystery of Love” from “Call Me By Your Name”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Visions of Gideon” from “Call Me By Your Name”
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “DeKalb Elementary”
MIGHT WIN: “The Silent Child”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Dear Basketball”
MIGHT WIN: “Garden Party”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
WILL WIN: “Heroin(e)”
MIGHT WIN: “Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
“Conviction” Review
When a movie has a very strong plotline and/or message, it can sometimes take its time to manifest itself. It will beat around the bush and make the viewer wait patiently until it has sufficient structure and weight to dig into the meaty part of the story. This is not one of those films, and whether or not that’s a good quality is up for grabs.
“Conviction,” directed by Tony Goldwyn, is based on the true story of Betty Anne Waters, a small town woman who’s brother, Kenny, is wrongfully accused and convicted of murdering a woman. Betty puts her entire life on hold for nearly two decades and puts herself through law school in order to prove Kenny’s innocence, when the authorities line up against her, for fear of having their mistakes revealed.
From the moment it was first announced, this film’s plot sounded like Oscar gold. A powerful human interest story of people overcoming huge obstacles in the search for truth and redemption, with the added bonus of being true to life. However, I’ve discovered that this type of story’s line that separates it between high art and Hallmark Saturday afternoon fare is very thin. “Conviction” straddles that border quite precariously.
Much more than a directing or writing heavy piece, this film is really an acting showcase, and in that respect, it mostly prevails. Hilary Swank is very good, as usual. Forceful and direct, she can definitely carry a scene, even if I’ve never really been that fond of her as an actress, in regard, at least, to everything she’s done after “Boys Don’t Cry.” Minnie Driver matches that Swank’s no-nonsense intensity, and adds a decent dose of humor.
More than anyone else, however, this film is a major Oscar vehicle for the long-overdue for a nomination Sam Rockwell. In all honesty, the performance isn’t really much better than anything else he’s ever done, which isn’t to say that it isn’t stellar. Rockwell is just an actor of such extraordinary depth and naturalism that, aside from Duncan Jones’ “Moon,” nothing has ever fully encompassed the range of his talent. Will he finally get a nomination? With such a crowded field, maybe not, but one of these years, he will score big with them and it will be worthwhile.
The biggest and most delightful surprise of the film is Juliette Lewis in a tiny part that brings back the acting prowess that made her such a commodity in the early to mid-nineties. She completely envelops her character of a trashy misanthrope who is a key witness for the prosecution in both appearance and quality. I would love to see her take on more roles like this and perhaps she could become a compelling leading lady once again.
The film itself doesn’t quite live up to its performances. The directing lacks a certain artistic finesse. It plays out like a TV movie, bland and by the numbers. The script is really kind of all over the place, in a manner of speaking. It’s chronologically skewed, but not in a beneficial or coherent way. It takes a good 40 to 45 minutes for the plotline to truly take shape.
The movie’s message, that goes kind of unspoken for a while, until it is literally spoken, is one of capital punishment. It’s true that had Kenny Waters’ gotten the death penalty, he never would have survived long enough for his sister to pull out all the stops for his redemption, but couldn’t they have come out with a better way of getting that across than by simply saying: “If your father had gotten the death penalty, he’d be dead by now.” A note to Tony Goldwyn: exercise subtlety.
One highlight is that the film has a very clear sense of where and when it takes place. The mis en scene is crafted to create a vivid portrait of this down and out family brought up in a rundown rural environment throughout the past three decades. The wardrobe, in particular, does a fantastic job in capturing the kind of motionless world of poverty and torpor that Hilary Swank’s character fights to come free of.
All in all, this is not much more than an exercise in mediocrity. It’s got a few moments that are hot and cold, but mostly just lukewarm and by the numbers. And, I’m not gonna lie, I’m kind of sick of reviewing lukewarm movies. 2010 has got to give me something that I can shout about soon…please?
GRADES: B- * * * / * * * * * 6.2 / 10.0