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Final Predictions for the 85th Academy Awards
With the clock ticking, unfortunately, there’s not much time for discussion or justification. I’m just going to have to spit these out and see what happens in a matter of hours. Enjoy, and don’t forget to check back to see the results in the morning.
BEST PICTURE
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Silver Linings Playbook”
6. “Life of Pi”
7. “Moonrise Kingdom”
8. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
9. “Skyfall”
10. “Amour”
Alt 1: Django Unchained
Alt 2: “The Master”
(NOTE: Again, Best Picture could end up being anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees, so in this case, you can use the ideology of “if there are five…if there are six…etc”)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
3. Ben Affleck – “Argo”
4. Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
5. Tom Hooper” – “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: Michael Haneke – “Amour
Alt 2: Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”
BEST LEADING ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
2. Denzel Washington – “Flight”
3. Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
4. John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
5. Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Alt 1: Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
2. Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
3. Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
4. Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
5. Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
Alt 1: Quevenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 2: Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
3. Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. Alan Arkin – “Argo”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”
Alt 2: Christoph Waltz” – “Django Unchained”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
2. Sally Field – “Lincoln”
3. Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
4. Amy Adams – “The Master”
5. Ann Dowd – “Compliance”
Alt 1: Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Alt 2: Judi Dench – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Argo”
3. “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
5. “Life of Pi”
Alt 1: “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
Alt 2: “The Sessions”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Moonrise Kingdom”
3. “The Master”
4. “Amour”
5. “Looper”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Middle of Nowhere”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. “The Gatekeepers”
2. “The Invisible War”
3. “Searching for Sugar Man”
4. “The House I Live In”
5. “Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”
Alt 1: “How to Survive a Plague”
Alt 2: “5 Broken Cameras”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. “Brave”
2. “Frankenweenie”
3. “Wreck It Ralph”
4. “Paranorman”
5. “Rise of the Guardians”
Alt 1: “The Painting”
Alt 2: “Zarafa”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. “Amour”
2. “The Intouchables”
3. “War Witch”
4. “A Royal Affair”
5. “No”
Alt 1: “Sister”
Alt 2: “Kon Tiki”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “Lincoln”
4. “The Master”
5. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “Anna Karenina”
BEST EDITING
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Argo”
3. “Skyfall”
4. “Lincoln”
5. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: “Life of Pi”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “The Master”
5. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “The Dark Knight Rises”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Les Miserables”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “Django Unchained”
5. “Mirror Mirror”
Alt 1: “A Royal Affair”
Alt 2: “Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “Zero Dark Thirty”
4. “The Avengers”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”
Alt 1: “Lincoln”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
1. “Skyfall”
2. “The Dark Knight Rises”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Prometheus”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “John Carter”
BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS
1. “Lincoln”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Men in Black 3″
Alt 2: “Looper”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Anna Karenina”
5. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 1: “The Master”
Alt 2: “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Skyfall” – “Skyfall”
2. “Suddenly” – “Les Miserables”
3. “Learn Me Right” – “Brave”
4. “Still Alive” – “Paul Williams Still Alive”
5. “Ancora Qui” – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “From Here to the Moon and Back” – “Joyful Noise”
Alt 2: “Song of the Lonely Mountain” – “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Boston and New York Online Close Out the Sweep
While the LAFCA has helped spread the wealth in California, Boston and the rest of New York have continued their enduring love for “Zero Dark Thirty.” On behalf of all those on the outside looking in on this supposed gem, I must say that it has a lot to live up to at this point.
One thing that today has definitely told us is that Best Actress is going to me closer and any of us could have imagined. A month ago, people proclaimed it was signed, sealed and delivered for Jennifer Lawrence. Despite pulling out a tie on the west coast, she hasn’t been much of a factor on the critical front. Jessica Chastain has had much of the buzz, and today, Emmanuelle Riva pretty much ran the table for her work in Michael Hanecke’s “Amour” Previously, I wasn’t sure if the aging actress would have enough support to even gain a nomination, but as of this point, there’s certainly no question. If it wasn’t for the tendency of the male side of the Academy to vote from below the waste, she might have had a decent shot at winning.
A very surprising development that has continued today has been Christoph Waltz gaining momentum for his supporting role for “Django Unchained.” While DiCaprio’s performance is certainly the showier one that will generate much more support in the Academy, this certainly isn’t the course that many expected this category to take.
Now while I must applaud the originality and diversity of some of Boston’s choices, some of them, I’m not sure to take this “Perks of Being a Wallflower” love with a grain of salt. The film has an outside shot at a Best Adapted Screenplay nod. However, many of these young actors just haven’t paid their dues yet in the Academy’s eyes. Emma Watson has a lot of room to grow before she escapes from the “Harry Potter” shadow.
Here’s the full list of winners from both parties:
BOSTON SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS
BEST PICTURE: “Zero Dark Thirty”
runner-up: “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Amour”
BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
runner-up: Paul Thomas Anderson – “The Master”
BEST LEADING ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
runner-up: Denis Lavant – “Holy Motors”
BEST LEADING ACTRESS: Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
runner-up: Deanie Yip – “A Simple Life”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ezra Miller – “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
runner-up: Christoph Waltz – “Django Unchained”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Sally Field – “Lincoln”
runner-up: Emma Watson – “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST: “Seven Psychopaths”
runner-up: “Moonrise Kingdom”
BEST SCREENPLAY: “Lincoln”
runner-up: “Moonrise Kingdom”
BEST BREAKTHROUGH FILMMAKER: David France – “How to Survive a Plague”
runner-up: Benh Zeitlin – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
BEST ANIMATED FILM: “Frankenweenie”
runner-up: “ParaNorman”
BEST DOCUMENTARY: “How to Survive a Plague”
runner-up: “The Queen of Versailles”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “The Master”
runner-up: “Life of Pi” and “Moonrise Kingdom”
BEST EDITING: “Zero Dark Thirty”
runner-up: “Argo”
BEST USE OF MUSIC: “Moonrise Kingdom”
runner-up: “Django Unchained”
NEW YORK FILM CRITICS ONLINE
BEST PICTURE: “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
BEST LEADING ACTRESS: Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
BEST SCREENPLAY: “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE: Quvenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
BEST DEBUT DIRECTOR: Benh Zeitlin – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “Amour”
BEST DOCUMENTARY: “The Central Park Five”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “Life of Pi”
2012 New York Film Critics Circle Awards
Well, we’ve officially had our first shake-up of the season. While many of the main contenders remain at the top of the field without having to take a mention, several have confirmed their frontrunner status through victory. Moreover, one film that has largely been a mystery this awards season has instantly positioned itself as possibly the film to beat.
I am, of course, speaking of Karthryn Bigelow’s “Zero Dark Thirty.” The highly anticipated expose on the search for Osama Bin Laden had a big night at the first official critics awards of the year. With the first reviews coming in from early screenings (a not-too-shabby Metacritic score of 97 after 8 reviews), this may end up being not so much of a surprise. Whether this will turn out becoming the year’s proverbial critical darling is yet to be seen. Personally, I’m hoping for a bit more diversity in opinion coming from this year’s critics awards rather than the usual polarization. Yet, if Bigelow’s film is a as good as it appears, you can’t argue with who knows best.
Here’s the full list of winners:
BEST PICTURE: “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis – “Lincoln”
BEST ACTRESS: Rachel Weisz – “The Deep Blue Sea”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike” and “Bernie”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Sally Field – “Lincoln”
BEST SCREENPLAY: Tony Kushner – “Lincoln”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Greg Fraser – “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Michael Hanecke – “Amour”
BEST FIRST FILM: David France – “How to Survive a Plague”
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon – “Central Park Five”
BEST ANIMATED FILM: “Frankenweenie”
Now to cite “Zero Dark Thirty” as the only big winner yesterday would be a mistake. Steven Spielberg’s epic biopic “Lincoln” also snagged three awards, including two for acting, confirming the idea, shared by myself, that it truly has one of the best ensemble casts in recent memory. Meanwhile, Rachel Weisz has skyrocketed herself back into contention for a film that has been largely forgotten about. And while some people may still refuse to accept it, Matthew McConaughey has now become a legitimate candidate for an Oscar nomination. Who would have thought, though credit must be paid to the stellar year his career has had.
Village Voice critic J. Hoberman gave some insight as to how some of the voting went down. Apparently, the female acting awards were incredibly tight. The decided winners barely beat out frontrunners Jennifer Lawrence from “Silver Linings Playbook” and Anne Hathaway from “Les Miserables” in their respective categories. Tommy Lee Jones’ performance in “Lincoln” came in a very close second for Supporting Actor. Though, as one would expect, Daniel Day Lewis met little resistance in his victory.
Without a doubt, the film that had the worst night was Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest work of genius, “The Master.” With very little box office support and a topic that’s not much of a crowd-pleaser, this film is definitely dependent on its critical success to attempt to revive itself. Despite showing up in late ballots for Picture, Director, Actor (Phoenix) and Cinematography, its failure to claim a single honor is not a good sign. It still has a chance for redemption with the Los Angeles Critics or NYFCO this weekend, but it’s chances of winning any major awards are fading fast.
Some pundits are already claiming the race down to “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Lincoln,” but I am nowhere near sold. Tomorrow brings about the National Board of Review which might just change the landscape all over again. Plus, the potential success that “Argo” and “Les Miserables” will find once guild nominations start rolling out may make all the difference in the world. No doubt about it, though, things are certainly getting interesting.
2013 Oscar Predictions: “Just when I thought I was out…”
“…they pull me back in.” That’s right folks. It has now been nearly nine months since my last official post on The Edge of the Frame and I am severely out of practice. The close of last year’s Oscar season ironically coincided with my being hired into full time employment. Spending nine hours a day composing upwards of seventy-five emails and compiling online data have made coming home and getting behind a computer screen a not-so-welcoming scenario. A couple of hours of “The X-Files” on Netflix or “The Sopranos” on DVD have become a much more viable way to close out an evening. All of this partnered with a summer of fantasy baseball and my engagement to the woman I love have left comparably little time for my beloved little website.
However, as it turns out, old habits die hard. I’ve been watching the Oscars religiously for fifteen years and been dipping my toe into prognostication for the last seven. There’s no way I can sit this one out. There’s a lot of work to be done. Working full time has more or less hindered my rate of viewing new releases. I’ve got a schedule of about 36 films to see, both on Netflix and in theaters, over the next three months. However, with the first of the critics’ awards just around the corner, things are about to get very busy. Even before everything is seen and done, it’s about time that I offer a bit of perspective on how this year’s race is going to play out.
Some of the year’s biggest contenders have retained their position at the head of the race (“Les Miserables,” “Lincoln,”), practically since they were originally announced. Others have taken a hefty fall from grace (“The Master,” “The Dark Knight Rises”). A few projects have sprung up from out of the blue to become bonafide Best Picture threats (“The Silver Linings Playbook,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,”), while a couple that have barely been seen at all remain a mystery to many (“Zero Dark Thirty,” “Django Unchained”).
However, it’s never too early (or too late, in my case) to start putting the pieces together and assembling a picture of how the board will look almost exactly three months to the date. Listed below are my predictions for the 85th Annual Academy Award nominations. They’re ranked by the chances of each film (or individual) getting nominated. Winning does not come into play here. As complicated as it is, sometimes a person could have a lot easier a path getting nominated for an Oscar, then they ever would of winning. Ask Peter O’Toole if you need more info…
Enjoy, and remember that this whole chalkboard might be completely erased and scribbled down again, a month from now:
BEST PICTURE
1. “Argo”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Les Miserables”
4. “Silver Linings Playbook”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”
6. “The Master”
7. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
8. “Moonrise Kingdom”
9. “Life of Pi”
10. “The Sessions”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Amour”
Alt 3: “Flight”
The Edge of the Frame 