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Predictions for the 92nd Annual Academy Award Nominations
BEST MOTION PICTURE
WILL WIN: 1917
MIGHT WIN: Parasite
MY VOTE: Parasite
SHOULD BE HERE: Uncut Gems
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Sam Mendes – 1917
MIGHT WIN: Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
MY VOTE: Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
SHOULD BE HERE: Robert Eggers – The Lighthouse
BEST LEADING ACTOR
WILL WIN: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
MIGHT WIN: Adam Driver – Marriage Story
MY VOTE: Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
SHOULD BE HERE: Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Renee Zellweger – Judy
MIGHT WIN: Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
MY VOTE: Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
SHOULD BE HERE: Florence Pugh – Midsommar
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
MIGHT WIN: Joe Pesci – The Irishman
MY VOTE: Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
SHOULD BE HERE: Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Laura Dern – Marriage Story
MIGHT WIN: Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
MY VOTE: Florence Pugh – Little Women
SHOULD BE HERE: Shuzhen Zhao – The Farewell
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: Parasite
MIGHT WIN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
MY VOTE: Parasite
SHOULD BE HERE: The Farewell
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: Jojo Rabbit
MIGHT WIN: Little Women
MY VOTE: The Irishman
SHOULD BE HERE: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
WILL WIN: Parasite
MIGHT WIN: Les Miserables
MY VOTE: Parasite
SHOULD BE HERE: Atlantics
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: Toy Story 4
MIGHT WIN: Klaus
MY VOTE: I Lost My Body
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL WIN: American Factory
MIGHT WIN: For Sama
MY VOTE: For Sama
SHOULD BE HERE: One Child Nation
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: 1917
MIGHT WIN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
MY VOTE: The Lighthouse
SHOULD BE HERE: Parasite
BEST EDITING
WILL WIN: Parasite
MIGHT WIN: Ford v Ferrari
MY VOTE: Parasite
SHOULD BE HERE: Uncut Gems
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
WILL WIN: Once Upon a Time in America
MIGHT WIN: Parasite
MY VOTE: Parasite
SHOULD BE HERE: Midsommar
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: Little Women
MIGHT WIN: Jojo Rabbit
MY VOTE: Little Women
SHOULD BE HERE: Rocketman
BEST SOUND EFFECTS MIXING
WILL WIN: 1917
MIGHT WIN: Ford v Ferrari
MY VOTE: Joker
SHOULD BE HERE: Rocketman
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
WILL WIN: 1917
MIGHT WIN: Ford v Ferrari
MY VOTE: Ford v Ferrari
SHOULD BE HERE: Parasite
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: 1917
MIGHT WIN: Avengers: Endgame
MY VOTE: The Irishman
SHOULD BE HERE: Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
WILL WIN: Bombshell
MIGHT WIN: Judy
MY VOTE: Bombshell
SHOULD BE HERE: Midsommar
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: Hair Love
MIGHT WIN: Kitbull
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: The Neighbor’s Window
MIGHT WIN: Brotherhood
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone
MIGHT WIN: Walk Run Cha Cha
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
Predictions for the 89th Academy Awards
Every year I seem to cut it closer and closer to game time. Lots to deliberate on, but really it just comes down to how many Oscars will “La La Land” NOT win. We’ll find out. See my predix below, as well as my picks if I had a ballot:
__________
BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle – “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: Denis Villeneuve – “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: Robert Eggers – “The Witch”
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
MIGHT WIN: Denzel Washington – “Fences”
MY VOTE: Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
SHOULD BE HERE: Joel Edgerton – “Loving”
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Emma Stone – “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: Isabelle Huppert – “Elle”
MY VOTE: Natalie Portman – “Jackie”
SHOULD BE HERE: Amy Adams – “Arrival”
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight”
MIGHT WIN: Dev Patel – “Lion”
MY VOTE: Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: Ralph Fiennes – “A Bigger Splash”
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Viola Davis – “Fences”
MIGHT WIN: Umm…
MY VOTE: Viola Davis – “Fences”
SHOULD BE HERE: Greta Gerwig – “20th Century Women”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “Manchester by the Sea”
MIGHT WIN: “La La Land”
MY VOTE: “Manchester by the Sea”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “Moonlight”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Loving”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL WIN: “The Salesman”
MIGHT WIN: “Toni Erdmann”
MY VOTE: “N/A”
SHOULD BE HERE: “N/A”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL WIN: “O.J. Made in America”
MIGHT WIN: “13th”
MY VOTE: “13th”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Tower”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: “Zootopia”
MIGHT WIN: “Kubo and the Two Strings”
MY VOTE: “Zootopia”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Sausage Party”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Lion”
MY VOTE: “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”
BEST EDITING
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Midnight Special”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Hail, Caesar!”
MY VOTE: “Hail, Caesar!”
SHOULD BE HERE: “The Witch”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: “Jackie”
MIGHT WIN: “La La Land”
MY VOTE: “Jackie”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Silence”
BEST SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Blair Witch”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
WILL WIN: “Arrival”
MIGHT WIN: “Hacksaw Ridge”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Midnight Special”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: “Jungle Book”
MIGHT WIN: “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
MY VOTE: “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Arrival”
BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
WILL WIN: “Suicide Squad”
MIGHT WIN: “Star Trek: Beyond”
MY VOTE: “Suicide Squad”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Hacksaw Ridge”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Arrival”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”
MY VOTE: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Heathens” from “Suicide Squad”
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Sing”
MIGHT WIN: “Ennemis Interieurs”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Piper”
MIGHT WIN: “Borrowed Time”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
WILL WIN: “The White Helmets”
MIGHT WIN: “Joe’s Violin”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
Updated Oscar Predictions – 12/5
Thought I’d throw these up real quick before anything has the chance to further throw things off track. With so much going on, it’s almost impossible to do this without live prediction updates with every new announcement. Yet, it’s important to remember that many of the announcements, while notable, are not intensively significant in terms of the Oscar season. When predicting at this point, you almost have to just stick your finger up and see where the wind is blowing.
There are two films that have certainly positioned themselves at the head of the field, and it’s not like we weren’t already aware. “The Descendants” and “The Artist” have dominated the majority of awards announcements thus far and are not likely to stop.”Moneyball” and “The Tree of Life” have definitely shown their still in the game, while “Hugo” has emerged as a candidate and potential frontrunner.
While the guilds will largely decide its fate, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” has yet to receive any notice at all. Neither, to some extent, has “War Horse,” yet Mr. Spielberg’s film is far from leaving contention. Meanwhile, “The Girl with Dragon Tattoo” and “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” remain shrouded in a fair amount of mystery.
Remember, that while I hope that these predictions are a bit more relevant than my last, things are going to get blown wide open in about ten days when we have the results of the BFCA, the SAG and the Golden Globe nominations. Therefore, enjoy these while they last. Things are about to get messy.
Check out my full list of predictions after the cut:
BEST PICTURE
1. “The Artist”
2. “The Descendants”
3. “War Horse”
4. “Hugo”
5. “Moneyball”
6. “The Help”
7. “Midnight in Paris”
8. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9. “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
10. “The Tree of Life”
Alt 1: “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
Alt 2: “Shame”
Updated Oscar Predictions – 10/13
Another month has passed, and many of the biggest potential candidates have yet to be released to the general public (or the people who actually vote on them). However, there have definitely been a few shifts in the state of the race. Several horses have solidified themselves while others have fallen from grace. Meanwhile, most still remain a mystery.
One film has certainly been securely planted into the Best Picture race after a decent showing in the box office and nearly unanimous praise from critics (including this one). That movie is “Moneyball.” Aaron Sorkin looks to make it two nominations in a row with his fantastic script shared with Stephen Zallian. For sure, Brad Pitt, Bennett Miller and even Jonah Hill also have chances for nominations as well. The film is far from a lock in terms of a Best Picture nomination, especially with the potentially smaller field. Yet, it has definitely sky-rocketed into contention.
While certain films are on the rise, others are falling fast. One of the season’s early hopefuls has hit a series of brick walls on the festival trail. David Cronenberg’s “A Dangerous Method” had a lot of potential, but is mostly coming across critics and audiences that simply like it or don’t. Rave reviews are an elusive find. While Keira Knightley is definitely getting the majority of the raves, keeping her in the game, the studio is attempting to campaign her in the leading category, which I personally see as a mistake. Maybe “Method” still has a shot at a few nominations, but overall, it seems to be fading fast into limbo.
One major question, awaiting a final judgment, is whether or not “The Adventures of Tin Tin” will be ruled as an animated film or as live action due to its motion capture. This will have a huge impact on at least Best Animated Feature, for if it is ruled a cartoon, expect it to win in a walk. If not, then “Rango” becomes the frontrunner. For now, I will keep it in the category and I hope it stays. God help us when the Academy and people as a whole start to lose track of what is animated and what isn’t. I mean, seriously.
Finally, one movie that was originally poised for a potential victory on the big night was “The Ides of March.” However, now that the film has come and nearly gone, it doesn’t seem to have made as big of a splash that it would have liked. box office was relatively poor and reviews are missing a positive consensus. It seems as though the idea of the film (a political thriller, very much in the moment with George Clooney in nearly every single credit) is keeping it afloat more so than the film itself. Since critics will most likely pass it over when their awards come along, the buzz will have to survive until the guilds for it to have any kind of chance.
As far as “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” I really don’t know what to do with it, yet. As much as everyone else sees it becoming THE frontrunner for pretty much everything, I could just as easily see it missing completely. For now, I’m leaving it out of most categories, but that may change if the buzz increases once critics actually start to see it.
Well, enough talk. I will let the rest of my predictions speak for themselves. Check out the full list after the jump or up in the predictions tab in the corner of the page. Enjoy!
BEST PICTURE
1. War Horse
2. The Descendants
3. J. Edgar
4. The Artist
5. The Ides of March
6. The Help
7. Moneyball
8. Midnight in Paris
9. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
10. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Alt 1: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alt 2: The Tree of Life
My Final 83rd Oscar Predictions
Well, folks, it’s all come to an end. These will be my final predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. It has been a long year and a tough year, one with one of the biggest tide-turnings in the history of film. It’s hard to see the best, as well as my favorite, movie go from being on top of the world to fighting for its life. I still believe that it will come out victorious in the end, but I will be hanging on to that prediction by my fingernails until the first ballot is called.
This year, some of the races are a foregone conclusion. Both lead acting categories were practically finalized months ago, and the supporting awards are pretty close to sewn up, as well. You can probably take both of the screenplay awards to the bank, as well, along with animated feature. I also feel pretty confident calling both sound categories and visual effects for a single film to capture.
Several awards are thoroughly nagging on me and will be to the very end. One will be the very first ballot called, so we won’t have to wait long. Art Direction is in a very close. “The King’s Speech” is definitely the front runner with both “Inception” and “Alice in Wonderland” biting at its heals. It’s interesting to note that in all the times that a Tim Burton film has been nominated for this particular award, it has never lost. That statistic goes hand in hand with another, in that every time one such movie has been nominated for Best Costume Design, it has never won. I plan to go against that logic tonight, even as it faces a very strong contender in “The King’s Speech.”
Along with Design, both of the music categories have been severely nagging at me, as well. In Original Score, there is a showdown between the two Best Picture frontrunners, the stylish and innovative music in “The Social Network” vs. the quiet, beautiful, but really quite boring tones of “The King’s Speech.” Meanwhile, “Inception” and “How to Train Your Dragon” both have potential as spoilers. In Best Original Song, Randy Newman is looking for his second Oscar with the song “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3,” while A.R. Rahman seeks his third (he won two for “Slumdog Millionaire). Either has potential.
Finally, we come to the big one. It’s funny how after everything else, Best Picture ends up being the closest race of all. In one corner, there’s “The King’s Speech,” the heart-warming, generally-appealing historical epic. In its pocket are the PGA, the DGA and the SAG Ensemble. It’s opposition: “The Social Network,” is the original, stylized, cold-shouldered work of art. Behind it is the Golden Globe, the BFCA, the WGA, the ACE and basically every critics award for Best Picture that exists. It will be a fight to the finish. The one question the Academy has to ask themselves now.
Do they want to be smart or do they want to be saps? I still have faith.
My final predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Winner: “The Social Network”
Runner-Up: “The King’s Speech”
BEST DIRECTOR
Winner: David Fincher – “The Social Network”
Runner-Up: Tom Hooper – “The King’s Speech”
BEST ACTOR
Winner: Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg – “The Social Network”
BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Runner-Up: Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
Runner-Up: Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Runner-Up: Hailee Steinfeld – “True Grit”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: “The King’s Speech”
Runner-Up: “Inception”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: “The Social Network”
Runner-Up: “Toy Story 3”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Winner: “In a Better World”
Runner-Up: “Incendies”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: “Toy Story 3”
Runner-Up: “How to Train Your Dragon”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: “Inside Job”
Runner-Up: “Exit Through the Gift Shop”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: “True Grit”
Runner-Up: “Inception”
BEST EDITING
Winner: “The Social Network”
Runner-Up: “The King’s Speech”
BEST ART DIRECTION
Winner: “The King’s Speech”
Runner-Up: “Inception”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Winner: “Alice in Wonderland”
Runner-Up: “The King’s Speech”
BEST SOUND MIXING
Winner: “Inception”
Runner-Up: “The Social Network”
BEST SOUND EDITING
Winner: “Inception”
Runner-Up: “TRON: Legacy”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner: “Inception”
Runner-Up: “Alice in Wonderland”
BEST MAKEUP
Winner: “The Wolfman”
Runner-Up: “Barney’s Version”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: “The Social Network”
Runner-Up: “The King’s Speech”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”
Runner-Up: “If I Rise” from “127 Hours”
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Winner: “The Gruffalo”
Runner-Up: “Day and Night”
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
Winner: “Strangers No More”
Runner-Up: “Poster Girl”
BEST LIVE-ACTION FILM
Winner: “Na Wewe”
Runner-Up: “The Confession”
Enjoy the Oscars folks!
Oscar Predictions 11/27!
So it’s now only a little more than 2 months until the 2011 Academy Award nominations are officially announced. And now that Thanksgiving has passed, this blog will soon be buzzing with critics groups awards, top ten lists and guild nominations. Therefore, I figure it’s about time to update my predictions.
Some things are falling apart, and some stars are rising. Some things are, well, staying pretty much the same. I’m starting to lose faith that “The Way Back” will be able to gain enough momentum going into January, even if it does live up to being one of Peter Weir’s best. Same thing for the women’s rights film, “Made in Dagenham.”
However, it seems that the planets are finally aligning for Darren Arronofsky, really for the first time, as “Black Swan” is riding one of the best publicity waves of the year. It doesn’t help that the film might actually be the best of the young auteur’s career. I don’t see “127 Hours” disappearing from the list any time soon, either. Also, it appears that “Toy Story 3” is becoming a nearly unstoppable force (deservingly so) and could actually become the third member of a 3-way race for the win. Who would have thought?
As of now though, it’s still between the same two horses: “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network.” It kind of seems as though it will remain that way, too. I imagine that “The Social Network” will garner a lot of the critics awards. A dream come true would be a sweep of the LAFCA, the NYFCC and the National Society of Film Critics, just as “The Hurt Locker” did. However, with “Toy Story 3″‘s reviews being nearly as good, it will have competition. I could further go into my guild hopes, as well, but we’ll try to keep the cart behind the horse and take this thing one step at a time.
Oscar Predictions Posted
My official Oscar predictions for the 2010 film year are now up and running. You can view them from the link below, or they will always be up in the tab at the top of the page. Right now, the format is obviously pretty rough. Stand by eventually for a little more flash and media. But, there they are, quite literally in black and white. I hope to have them updated bi-weekly, or at least a couple of times a month.
Right now, I have no shame in predicting “The Social Network” right out front of the pack. It certainly does not have a straight up and down Oscar pedigree, but I believe that it’s simply too good for them to ignore. It’s biggest competition, right now, is definitely “The King’s Speech,” the big winner from TIFF. It’s Tom Hooper’s period-biopic that definitely screams Oscar out of its gills and seems to have a lot of class and quality, not to mention the indisputable frontrunner for Best Actor in Colin Firth.
The two major Hollywood blockbusters that will almost certainly survive into the winter are Pixar’s “Toy Story 3” and Christopher Nolan’s “Inception.” Obviously, they’re box office giants as well as critical darlings, and it doesn’t help that Christopher Nolan is now considered one of the most overdue men in the business.
Some other films to watch out for, for sure, include Lisa Cholodenko’s Sundance favorite “The Kids Are All Right,” Mike Leigh’s late masterpiece “Another Year,” and the Coen Brother’s remake of “True Grit,” which remains a mystery to audiences, but is obviously a likely contender due to its pedigree.
Overall, it’s going to be an interesting season with a lot left up for grabs. Enjoy the race…
The Edge of the Frame 