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My FINAL 2012 Oscar Predictions
It’s time, folks. The time is come. No more second-guessing. No more procrastinating. This is it. I think I’ve provided enough commentary over the last few months (and I’ve got to start helping my girlfriend get our place ready for our Oscar party), so I’ll just let my predictions speak for themselves.
Here goes nothing:
BEST PICTURE
WINNER: “The Artist”
(runner-up: “Hugo”)
BEST DIRECTOR
WINNER: Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist
(runner-up: “Martin Scorsese – “Hugo”)
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
WINNER: George Clooney – “The Descendants”
(runner-up: Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”)
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
WINNER: Viola Davis – “The Help”
(runner-up: Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”)
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WINNER: Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”
(runner-up: Max von Sydow – “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”)
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WINNER: Octavia Spencer – “The Help”
(runner-up: Berenice Bejo – “The Artist”)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WINNER: “The Descendants”
(runner-up: “Moneyball”)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WINNER: “Midnight in Paris”
(runner-up: “The Artist”)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WINNER: “Rango”
(runner-up: “Puss in Boots”)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WINNER: “Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”
(runner-up: “Undefeated”)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WINNER: “A Separation”
(runner-up: “In Darkness”)
BEST ART DIRECTION
WINNER: “Hugo”
(runner-up: “The Artist”)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WINNER: “The Tree of Life”
(runner-up: “The Artist”)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WINNER: “The Artist”
(runner-up: “Hugo”)
BEST EDITING
WINNER: “The Artist”
(runner-up: “Hugo”)
BEST SOUND MIXING
WINNER: “Hugo”
(runner-up: “War Horse”)
BEST SOUND EDITING
WINNER: “War Horse”
runner-up: “Hugo”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WINNER: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
(runner-up: “Hugo”)
BEST MAKEUP
WINNER: “The Iron Lady”
(runner-up: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part 2”)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WINNER: “The Artist”
(runner-up: “Hugo”)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WINNER: “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets”
(runner-up: “Real in Rio” from “Rio”)
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
WINNER: “Tuba Atlantic”
(runner-up: “The Shore”)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
WINNER: “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore”
(runner-up: “A Morning Stroll”)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
WINNER: “The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom”
(runner-up: “Saving Face”)
Well there you have it. I’m gonna go make some dip. I’ll try not to get my hair in it, since pulling it out will be all I do for the next two hours.
Have fun everyone, and remember that there will be live updates on The Edge of the Frame for each win. Also, follow me on Twitter (@edgeoftheframe) for some good old snarkyness.
Writers Guild and MPSE Announce Winners
Well, the weekend has wrapped and all but a few precursors remain. Yesterday’s winners continued to shed a bit of light on how things will go this Sunday, and, in some ways, made things a little more confusing.
The Writers Guild of America announced their 64th annual slate of winners early in the evening. As was overwhelmingly expected, Woody Allen was awarded Best Original Screenplay for his comeback film “Midnight in Paris.” While some believe that this makes him a lock for the Oscar win, he is actually far from it. Due to the WGA’s wacky (and absurd, if you ask me) eligibility guidelines, many films did not even qualify for the nominations. One such film is Best Picture frontrunner “The Artist,” and to be quite honest, said film still has a tremendous chance of stealing that award away. I’d say the money is still on “Paris,” since it has managed to beat out its competition, thus far (except for the BAFTA). Yet, one should never underestimate the power of a film’s sweeping potential. Screenplay might just get caught up in the hurricane.
Adapted Screenplay was a bit of a depressing moment for me, last night. “The Descendants” expectantly won the award for writers Alexander Payne, Jim Rash and Nat Faxon. Put together with the Scripter, this easily makes it the leading contender for the Oscar equivalent. Truly sad, if you ask me. “Descendants” is a great script, hurt, mind you, by a uneven and largely expositional voiceover. However, the obvious and true winner of this award has been discarded. Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zallian, undoubtedly crafted the best screenplay of the year, and as of now, will probably not see their work awarded. I can only hope for a 2009-esque upset, when “Precious” defied all logic to beat “Up in the Air” (ironically also starring George Clooney). Don’t count on it, though.
The second and final awards ceremony of the night was the Motion Picture Sound Editors. Many of Oscar’s Sound Editing nominees had several mentions, here, making these awards a useful barometer. The winners went down as follows:
- BEST SOUND EFFECTS AND FOLEY IN A FEATURE FILM: “War Horse”
- BEST MUSIC IN A FEATURE FILM: “Hugo”
- BEST SOUND EDITING IN AN ANIMATION FEATURE FILM: “The Adventures of Tintin”
- BEST MUSIC IN A MUSICAL FEATURE FILM: “The Muppets”
- BEST SOUND EDITING IN A FEATURE FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “The Flowers of War”
- BEST SOUND EDITING IN A FEATURE DOCUMENTARY: “George Harrison: Living in the Material World”
- BEST DIALOGUE AND ADR IN A FEATURE FILM: “Super 8″
Of the winners, two films also share an Oscar nomination: “Hugo” and “War Horse,” and we can pretty much bet that this category will go to one or the other. Since “Hugo” will probably take Sound Mixing (given its Cinema Audio Society victory, two nights ago), it is very possible it might take both categories in a sweep. Yet, I believe I’ll have to go with “War Horse” for a multitude of reasons.
First off, it took home the night’s big prize, Sound Effects and Foley, the award that most gravitates to the Oscar equivalent (“Inception,” “The Dark Knight Rises,” “The Bourne Ultimatum” and “Letters from Iwo Jima” all films that won both the MPSE and Oscar). Also, it is impossible to deny the insane popularity of Gary Rydstrom and Richard Hymns, with a combined ten Oscars between them. The last time they collaborated with Spielberg on a straight-up war film (“Saving Private Ryan”) they definitely do too shabby, either.
Everything else aside, there’s one glaring ideology pointing towards a “War Horse” victory. If “Hugo” were to win Best Sound Editing, it would be the first live action film without any gunfire to do so since “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” in 2002. If you take swordplay out of the equation, it goes back a lot further than that. With all things considered, this award leans towards movie action, and virtually always has. All of these factors, combined, point to not only a possible, but likely “War Horse” victory.
The sand is running out of the hourglass and only a few precursors to go. Tomorrow night is the Costume Designers Guild, where “The Artist,” “Bridesmaids” and “Harry Potter” appear to be likely winners. Then, the season is capped off by the Independent Spirit Awards less than twenty-four hours before the red carpet roles out. I’ll keep you posted.
2012 Oscars Winner Predictions – Round One
Well, there’s no turning back now. There’s no more debating to be done on the Academy Award nominees. No more discussion of who’s too young or too old, too white or too black, too new or two powerful, and no more weighing out each person’s clout within their particular groups of peers. The nominations are in, and it’s a whole new ballgame. Some frontrunners have fallen and others still sit at the top. Yet, I fully believe that barely a single category is the same as it was three days ago.
Instead of just highlighting a few select categories and offering my thoughts, I’m going to go through each award, one by one, and discuss how things have shaped up.
See the full list after the jump:
BEST PICTURE
Despite a couple shifts in the power balance a few days ago, this is an award whose frontrunner hasn’t shifted at all. “Hugo” may have beat it out by one to become the nomination leader (and thus the only competition for the award), but “The Artist” has a massive lead. It will take a whole lot to knock it from the top of the ladder. “The Help,” once considered a possible underdog upset, showed up little support, including a lack of the crucial Best Editing nomination. Meanwhile, “The Descendants” has lost this battle in the guilds. “Hugo” is the only film that really holds any kind of chance, but only in theory.
MY PREDICTION: “The Artist”
SPOILER: “Hugo” Read more…
2012 Academy Award Nominations!
And away we go…
BEST PICTURE
“The Artist”
“The Descendants”
“Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
“The Help”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“Moneyball”
“The Tree of Life”
“War Horse”
BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen – “Midnight in Paris”
Michael Hazanavicius – “The Artist”
Terrence Malick – “The Tree of Life”
Alexander Payne – “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese – “Hugo”
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
Demien Bechir – “A Better Life”
George Clooney – “The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”
Gary Oldman – “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Brad Pitt – “Moneyball”
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close – “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis – “The Help”
Rooney Mara – “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams – “My Week with Marilyn”
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh – “My Week with Marilyn”
Jonah Hill – “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte – “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”
Max von Sydow – “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Bérénice Bejo – “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain – “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy – “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer – “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer – “The Help”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Artist” by Michel Hazanavicius
“Bridesmaids” by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
“Margin Call” by J.C. Chandor
“Midnight in Paris” by Woody Allen
“A Separation” by Asghar Farhadi
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“The Descendants” by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
“Hugo” by John Logan
“The Ides of March” by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
“Moneyball” by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin Story by Stan Chervin
“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“A Cat in Paris”
“Chico & Rita”
“Kung Fu Panda 2”
“Puss in Boots”
“Rango”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Bullhead” Belgium
“Footnote” Israel
“In Darkness” Poland
“Monsieur Lazhar” Canada
“A Separation” Iran
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Hell and Back Again”
“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front”
“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”
“Pina”
“Undefeated”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“The Artist” – Guillaume Schiffman
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” – Jeff Cronenweth
“Hugo” – Robert Richardson
“The Tree of Life” – Emmanuel Lubezki
“War Horse” – Janusz Kaminski
BEST EDITING
“The Artist” – Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
“The Descendants” – Kevin Tent
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” – Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
“Hugo” – Thelma Schoonmaker
“Moneyball” – Christopher Tellefsen
BEST ART DIRECTION
“The Artist” – Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2” – Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
“Hugo” – Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
“Midnight in Paris” – Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
“War Horse” – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Anonymous” – Lisy Christl
“The Artist” – Mark Bridges
“Hugo” – Sandy Powell
“Jane Eyre” – Michael O’Connor
“W.E.” – Arianne Phillips
BEST SOUND MIXING
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” – David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
“Hugo” – Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
“Moneyball” – Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” – Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
“War Horse” – Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson
BEST SOUND EDITING
“Drive” – Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” – Ren Klyce
“Hugo” – Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” – Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
“War Horse” – Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2” – Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
“Hugo” – Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning
“Real Steel” – Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes” – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” – Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier
BEST MAKEUP
“Albert Nobbs” – Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2” – Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Iron Lady” – Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Adventures of Tintin” – John Williams
“The Artist” – Ludovic Bource
“Hugo” – Howard Shore
“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” – Alberto Iglesias
“War Horse” – John Williams
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets” – Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from “Rio” – Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett
BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
“Pentecost” – Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane
“Raju” – Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
“The Shore” – Terry George and Oorlagh George
“Time Freak” – Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
“Tuba Atlantic” – Hallvar Witzø
BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATION
“Dimanche/Sunday” – Patrick Doyon
“The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore” – William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
“La Luna” – Enrico Casarosa
“A Morning Stroll” – Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
“Wild Life” – Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT
“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement” – Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
“God Is the Bigger Elvis” – Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
“Incident in New Baghdad” – James Spione
“Saving Face” – Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
“The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom” – Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen
There you have it, folks. My fiery reactions to come shortly, after I blow off some steam.
It Hath Come: My Final 2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions
The time is here. Unbelievable. I woke up this morning with such a sense of elation, pride and sheer terror. As I believe I had stated at this point, last January, I find this point in the race to be more nerve-racking and exciting than that fateful day in February. This is when, in my mind, the true winners are announced. I know it’s a savage cliche in this industry, but to be real, I truly believe that it is an honor just to be nominated. Especially when people like Harvey Weinstein exist in the world. If you are able to squeeze out a nomination without that “The Weinstein Company” in your opening credits, then I say “Bravo” to you, sir or madam. Besides, when you look at history, ninety percent of the time, it’s the films that don’t win that get remembered so much more. I’d say that those films are far better company to keep.
Well, I’ll take this time, beforehand, to address any sudden change or surge that has occurred since my last batch of nominations. The big one, indeed came after the announcement of the BAFTA nominations and “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy,” suddenly became a legitimate contender. Granted, I do not believe (though some seem to) that it will receive the same level of recognition (11 nominations. Whew.), but I am fully expecting it to pop up in a few categories. In fact, perhaps my biggest “out-on-a-limb” prediction is Gary Oldman snagging his first career mention. I mean in reality, who cares what the Globes say and the SAG nominations are from a random sampling, so who knows how many of them have even heard of Oldman or understand his plight. I believe that, at this point, members of the Academy’s acting branch know that it’s about damn time to give this legendary actor his due. Plus, the British contingent of the Academy may help push him over the edge.
If you had asked any prognosticator two months ago if they believed that, on the day before nominations, “War Horse” would be on the bubble, they’d have said the chances were slim. Yet, here we are. If it hadn’t been for that Producers Guild nomination, which at this point, almost seems strange, this film would be considered completely out of contention. Lacking any kind of mention from the DGA, the SAG, the WGA or the ASC, the film’s chances have dropped through the floor. Many believe that “Bridesmaids” has a better chance, at this point.
Speaking of “Bridesmaids,” I’ll address its status along with a few other “on-the-bubble” films. Many are hoping and believing that this will be the first Judd Apatow production to make the shortlist. Yet, despite all of its guild nominations, I think it will fail to make the cut. The Academy’s balloting procedures, which require a large number of #1 votes, will prevent it. Now it seems that “The Tree of Life” should be able to excel by those standards, due to the fervent passion of its followers, However, I believe that this film has seen its day with the critics, but will not register as well with the industry. The fate of “Drive” will follow along a similar path, despite a push from the BAFTAs. In a world where there was still an assured number of ten nominees, one or all of these might sneak in, but not this year.
Well, on to those nomination predictions. Won’t be able to say that again until, well, the day after this year’s Oscars. Once again, these are ranked by chance of getting nominated. If I put a film or individual at the number one spot, that does not necessarily mean I think it will win. That’s a whole different ballpark.
Here comes the part that’s hardest: double crossing my fingers. For someone in my position who has two loves, predicting the Oscars and loving films, this day is a double-edged sword. As much as I want my own favorites to somehow work their way into the categories, in many cases, I’m predicting against them. Therefore, no matter what happens, I’ll be feeling a twinge of sadness. But as Sasha Stone, one of the best analysts of the Oscar race and my personal idol says, “The trick is not minding.”
Here goes nothing:
BEST PICTURE
1. “The Artist”
2. “Hugo”
3. “The Descendants”
4. “The Help”
5. “Midnight in Paris”
6. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
7. “Moneyball
8. “War Horse” (if there are eight)
9. “Bridesmaids” (if there are nine)
10. “The Tree of Life” (if there are ten)
Alt 1: “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Alt 2: “Drive”
2012 American Cinema Editors Nominees
You know how when watching the credits of a movie and the editor’s name is usually followed by the acronym “A.C.E.”? Why is that? I remember when I was a kid, I used to think it was some sort of self-designated achievement. Once they’ve been around in the industry long enough, they earn the right to call themselves an “ACE.” Well, the truth of what A.C.E. stands for isn’t far from that logic, though it isn’t exactly the same as what WWII fighter pilots saw it as.
The American Cinema Editors is the guild belonging to motion picture editors. While not to be confused with a dues-paying union, the ACE serves more as a society, inducting new members via a voting process based on their experience and skill. Each year, for the last fifty years, the guild has been hosting the Eddie Awards, awarding the best achievements in film editing for each year. While probably not its primary purpose, this award is very influential in each year’s Oscar race.
One of the most interesting facts about the Academy Awards involves feature film editing. In the last thirty years, no film has earned a victory for Best Picture of the Year without also gaining at least a nomination for Best Editing. Since the ACE’s nominations usually line up with it’s equivalent Oscar at least 4/5, this is as good of indicator of the what nominations will look like next week as you can get. In the case of these nominations, not a lot of surprises, being that all of the projected frontrunners have happened to show up here.
The nominees are:
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC)
“The Descendants” – Kevin Tent
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” – Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
“Hugo” – Thelma Schoonmaker
“Moneyball” – Christopher Tellefsen
“War Horse” – Michael Kahn
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (MUSICAL or COMEDIC)
“The Artist” – Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
“Bridesmaids” William Kerr and Michael L. Sale
“Midnight in Paris” – Alisa Lepselter
“My Week with Marilyn” Michael Recht
“Young Adult” – Dana Glauberman
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (ANIMATED)
“The Adventures of Tintin” – Michael Kahn
“Puss in Boots” – Eric Dapkewicz
“Rango” – Craig Wood
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DOCUMENTARY)
“Cave of Forgotten Dreams” – Joe Bini and Maya Hawk
“Freedom Riders” – Lewis Erskine and Aljernon Tunsil
“George Harrison: Living in the Material World” – David Tedeschi
The Dramatic category is all but exactly what we’d expected it to be. With the kind of bad guild luck that “War Horse” has been experiencing as of late, it’s a little more surprising that it has been able to achieve recognition, however, it’s really difficult to snub Michael Kahn for anything, these days. He really is a master craftsmen, having just received the ACE’s Lifetime Achievement Award the previous year.
As far as Musical/Comedy is concerned, “The Artist,” “Midnight in Paris” and “Bridesmaids” were all likely contenders in this category. One surprise is the absence of such popular comedies as “50/50” and “Win Win” which seem to have been doing well with both critics and industry types up to this point. If only the folks at the top could get their heads screwed on straight and realize that “My Week with Marilyn” is about as comedic as it is musical. It honestly shouldn’t be on either one of these lists, but should at least get it’s classification right.
What does this mean for Oscar? At this point, I would consider “The Artist” and “Hugo” to be locks for a Best Editing nomination. “The Artist” is simply a juggernaut at this point and respect and admiration for Thelma Schoonmaker’s craft is beyond reproach. Following these two would be “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” who’s editors took home the gold last year for “The Social Network,” and “Moneyball,” which is here perhaps completely off of quality and merit. A perfectly edited film.
For the fifth slot, odds are on either “War Horse” or “The Descendants.” The first definitely has the chops, but has lost an immense amount of steam in the last month. At the Golden Globes, the film was treated almost as an afterthought in the awards race. “The Descendants” is far from having anything that resembles showy or standout editing. Yet, probably well-aware of the thirty-year curse, Fox Searchlight has been trying desperately hard to campaign for the film’s editors in a last ditch effort not to fall victim to Oscar voodoo. In the end, there’s always the chance that an unforeseen contender might sneak in. “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy,” “The Ides of March” and “Drive” are superbly edited features and could easily find their way in much like “Blood Diamond,” “Children of Men” and “Cinderella Man” (none of which received ACE nominations) did in past years.
Only three primary guilds are left to release their nominations (the Costume Designers Guild, the Cinema Audio Society, and the Motion Picture Sound Editors). However, those organizations have not indicated as to when said announcements will take place. Stay up to date when they do at The Edge of the Frame.
My Golden Globe Predictions 2012
Same deal as Thursday. I’ll give my winner predictions as well as an alternate. Some of these are going to be pretty predictable. Others Just seem like they’re predictable. There’s bound to be one or two surprises, here. I would expect a very close dogfight in Best Director, with Hazanavicius, Scorsese and Allen all with decent shot at the gold. I also believe that the award for Best Actress (Drama) will largely determine the trajectory of that category for the rest of the year. If Viola Davis is able to overtake Meryl Streep on the veteran’s home turf, expect things to go in her favor from here on out.
It will be interesting to see how much the HFPA’s star-fucking tendencies will be in check, tonight. I think everyone, this year, is expecting them to keep a grip on themselves, for the most part. However, one big question looms: will they snub “A Separation” (a film that has pretty much unanimously been labeled the year’s finest film, foreign or otherwise) for the sole chance of giving a statue to Angelina Jolie. How can they possibly resist?
It shouldn’t be a big secret that I despise the Globes. True that they did do all right by me last year by giving four awards to “The Social Network.” Yet, in that same year, all ninety members of the Hollywood Foreign Press accepted bribes to be flown to Vegas for a live performance by Cher, in exchange for voting “Burlesque” in for a Best Picture nomination. Therefore, I expect plenty of whoring to happen this year, as well.
Or, who knows? Maybe awarding such an outstanding film, last year, caused them to turn over a new leaf. On the whole, their slate of nominees has shown a bit more class and taste than in years’ previous.
The best thing about tonight’s awards is not the HFPA’s winners, but NBC’s coverage of it. One must give credit to NBC for going against the celebrity-loving critics’ wishes and bringing back Ricky Gervais to host the ceremony. I mean come on. If we’re going to watch a three hour event of how cool they are, the least celebrities can do for us is take a little kick in the ass for our amusement. Hopefully, Gervais will be wearing a steel-toed boot. Should be a hoot.
And now, The Edge of the Frame’s picks. My winner predictions are highlighted in bold, while my runners-up are underlined.
BEST PICTURE: DRAMA
“The Descendants”
“The Help”
“Hugo”
“The Ides of March”
“Moneyball”
“War Horse”
BEST PICTURE: MUSICAL/COMEDY
“The Artist”
“Bridesmaids”
“50/50″
“Midnight in Paris”
“My Week With Marilyn”
BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen – “Midnight in Paris”
Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”
Alexander Payne – “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese – “Hugo”
George Clooney – “The Ides of March”
BEST ACTOR: DRAMA
George Clooney – “The Descendants”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “J. Edgar”
Michael Fassbender – “Shame”
Ryan Gosling – “The Ides of March”
Brad Pitt – “Moneyball”
BEST ACTOR: MUSICAL/COMEDY
Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”
Brendan Gleeson – “The Guard”
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – “50/50″
Ryan Gosling – “Crazy, Stupid, Love.”
Owen Wilson – “Midnight in Paris”
BEST ACTRESS: DRAMA
Glenn Close – “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis – “The Help”
Rooney Mara – “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”
Tilda Swinton – “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
BEST ACTRESS: MUSICAL/COMEDY
Jodie Foster – “Carnage”
Kristen Wiig – “Bridesmaids”
Charlize Theron – “Young Adult”
Michelle Williams – “My Week With Marilyn”
Kate Winslet – “Carnage”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh – “My Week With Marilyn”
Albert Brooks – “Drive”
Jonah Hill – “Moneyball”
Viggo Mortensen – “A Dangerous Method”
Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo – “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain – “The Help”
Janet McTeer – “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer – “The Help”
Shailene Woodley – “The Descendants”
BEST SCREENPLAY
Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash – “The Descendants”
George Clooney – Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, “The Ides of March”
Woody Allen – “Midnight in Paris”
Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian – “Moneyball”
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
“The Flowers of War”
“In the Land of Blood and Honey”
“The Kid With a Bike”
“A Separation”
“The Skin I Live In”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“The Adventures of Tintin”
“Arthur Christmas”
“Cars 2″
“Puss in Boots”
“Rango”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Ludovic Bource – “The Artist”
Trent Reznor and Attivus Ross – “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Howard Shore – “Hugo”
John Williams – “War Horse”
Abel Korzeniowski – “W.E.”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lay Your Head Down” – “Albert Nobbs”
“Hello Hello” – “Gnomeo and Juliet”
“The Living Proof” – “The Help”
“The Keeper” – “Machine Gun Preacher”
“Masterpiece” – “W.E.”
Updated Oscar Predictions – 1/6
These might be my final set of predictions before last call on January 23rd. There’s still a mess-load of guilds on their way and a box office that could still declare certain films winners (or losers), but I still feel pretty confident about these choices. Feel free to comment whether you agree or think I’m crazy.
One note: I have spent the entire year not predicting “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” while everyone else was jumping on the bandwagon. Now that the film has all but completely fallen off the radar (thanks to the utter panning of critics), I can’t help but feel a sense of unadulterated joy. Maybe I’ll be eating my words, later on, but for now…huzzah.
One more note: The Academy’s new method of having and indiscriminate amount of Best Picture nominees has made predicting that category nearly impossible. Therefore, I will still guess on the full ten and you can go ahead and judge by the numbers I provide as to what will make it if there are nine or eight, etc…
BEST PICTURE
1. “The Artist”
2. “Hugo”
3. “The Descendants”
4. “The Help”
5. “War Horse”
6. “Midnight in Paris”
7. “Moneyball”
8. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
9. “Bridesmaids”
10. “The Tree of Life”
Alt 1: “Drive”
Alt 2: “My Week with Marilyn”
Writers Guild of America Nominations Announced
And the guilds keep rolling in. Now, when it comes to Oscar, one cannot hold the WGA up to the same predictive powers as, say, the SAG or the PGA. This is not because the voting bodies don’t match up very well, because they do. It’s because of the Writers Guild annual list of discriminatory ineligibility standards. This year, a number of very promising scripts have been cast by the wayside. The potential frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay “The Artist” will not be found here, along with “Shame,” “Martha Marcy May Marlene,” “Beginners,” and “Margin Call” (among many others). In adapted, “Carnage,” “My Week with Marilyn,” “Drive” and “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” are SOL. I don’t mind saying every year that the WGA needs to stop shunning great writers just because they don’t pay their annual dues. With that, on to who does.
If you take a good look at that ineligible list above, you will notice that Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse” is not there. That’s right, it missed out on this nom out of sheer lack of votes. This is the second guild in a row to snub the film, and yet, I still do not believe it’s Best Picture chances have been tarnished. What has, however, been taken down a notch is George Clooney’s “The Ides of March,” which got a bit of a boost with Tuesday’s PGA nominations, but really could have used this one, as well. If the man, himself, doesn’t grab a DGA nod on Monday, I’d consider “Ides” to be down and out.
So enough of what’s been missing guilds and on to what’s been racking them in. Out of all the movies from this year, only two have nailed nominations in each of the four guilds, thus far: “The Help” and…that’s right…”Bridesmaids.” Chew on that for a bit, and begin to accept the film’s Best Picture chances. I’m still not sold, but am certainly entertaining the idea. However, a film enjoying perhaps an even better week is “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and I could not be more pleased. Granted Steven Zallian’s script may be ousted by one of the ineligibles in a couple of weeks, this makes 3 out of 4 guild nominations (and let’s be real, an Ensemble Cast nomination was never really in the cards, given the film’s dynamic). If David Fincher is able to score his second straight DGA nomination, it will be difficult to deny this fantastic film’s chances.
One final note. Congratulations to Zallian and Sorkin for writing the BEST screenplay of the year. Hands down.
Well, I’ll let the nominees do the rest of the talking, themselves. Check them out:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“The Descendants” by Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” by Steven Zallian
“The Help” by Tate Taylor
“Hugo” by John Logan
“Moneyball” by Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zallian
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“50/50” by Will Reiser
“Bridesmaids” by Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig
“Midnight in Paris” by Woody Allen
“Win Win” by Tom McCarthy
“Young Adult” by Diablo Cody
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Better this World” by Katie Galloway and Kelly Duane de la Vega
“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front” by Marshall Curry and Matthew Hamachek
“Nostalgia for the Light” by Patricio Guzman
“Pina” by Wim Wenders
“Position Among the Stars” by Hetty Naaijkens-Retel Helmrich and Leonard Retel Helmrich
“Senna” by Manish Pandey
The PGA Nominations Announced
I’m going to avoid any general discussion on this at the moment, suffice a moment of ecstatic joy concerning the official end of “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows” Best Picture run. It would take a miracle to get it in if the Producers won’t even give it the time of day. Apologies to “Potter” aficionados who read this blog, but I have never been a fan and I’d hate to to see that film steal away a spot on the shortlist, namely from films like “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” or “Moneyball”.
I’m currently crafting an all-encompassing post on the status of the current race which will be out later today. But for now, here are the nominations:
“THE ARTIST”
Producer: Thomas Langmann
“BRIDESMAIDS”
Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel, Clayton Townsend
“THE DESCENDANTS”
Producers: Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
“THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO”
Producers: Ceán Chaffin, Scott Rudin
“THE HELP”
Producers: Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus, Brunson Green
“HUGO”
Producers: Graham King, Martin Scorsese
“THE IDES OF MARCH”
Producers: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Brian Oliver
“MIDNIGHT IN PARIS”
Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
“MONEYBALL”
Producers: Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt
“WAR HORSE”
Producers: Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg
The Producers Guild of America Producer of the Year Award in Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:
“THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN”
Producers: Peter Jackson, Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg
“CARS 2”
Producer: Denise Ream
“KUNG FU PANDA 2”
Producer: Melissa Cobb
“PUSS IN BOOTS”
Producers: Joe M. Aguilar, Latifa Ouaou
“RANGO”
Producers: John B. Carls, Gore Verbinski
The Edge of the Frame 
