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2013 Oscar Predictions: “Just when I thought I was out…”
“…they pull me back in.” That’s right folks. It has now been nearly nine months since my last official post on The Edge of the Frame and I am severely out of practice. The close of last year’s Oscar season ironically coincided with my being hired into full time employment. Spending nine hours a day composing upwards of seventy-five emails and compiling online data have made coming home and getting behind a computer screen a not-so-welcoming scenario. A couple of hours of “The X-Files” on Netflix or “The Sopranos” on DVD have become a much more viable way to close out an evening. All of this partnered with a summer of fantasy baseball and my engagement to the woman I love have left comparably little time for my beloved little website.
However, as it turns out, old habits die hard. I’ve been watching the Oscars religiously for fifteen years and been dipping my toe into prognostication for the last seven. There’s no way I can sit this one out. There’s a lot of work to be done. Working full time has more or less hindered my rate of viewing new releases. I’ve got a schedule of about 36 films to see, both on Netflix and in theaters, over the next three months. However, with the first of the critics’ awards just around the corner, things are about to get very busy. Even before everything is seen and done, it’s about time that I offer a bit of perspective on how this year’s race is going to play out.
Some of the year’s biggest contenders have retained their position at the head of the race (“Les Miserables,” “Lincoln,”), practically since they were originally announced. Others have taken a hefty fall from grace (“The Master,” “The Dark Knight Rises”). A few projects have sprung up from out of the blue to become bonafide Best Picture threats (“The Silver Linings Playbook,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,”), while a couple that have barely been seen at all remain a mystery to many (“Zero Dark Thirty,” “Django Unchained”).
However, it’s never too early (or too late, in my case) to start putting the pieces together and assembling a picture of how the board will look almost exactly three months to the date. Listed below are my predictions for the 85th Annual Academy Award nominations. They’re ranked by the chances of each film (or individual) getting nominated. Winning does not come into play here. As complicated as it is, sometimes a person could have a lot easier a path getting nominated for an Oscar, then they ever would of winning. Ask Peter O’Toole if you need more info…
Enjoy, and remember that this whole chalkboard might be completely erased and scribbled down again, a month from now:
BEST PICTURE
1. “Argo”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Les Miserables”
4. “Silver Linings Playbook”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”
6. “The Master”
7. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
8. “Moonrise Kingdom”
9. “Life of Pi”
10. “The Sessions”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Amour”
Alt 3: “Flight”
NEW “Contagion” Trailer
Yesterday, I got a shaky, poor-quality glimpse of the bootleg “Dark Knight Rises” teaser, said to be officially premiered tonight at midnight. Didn’t think this week could get much more exciting. I was wrong.
This has definitely been a film that’s been high on my must-see radar of 2011 for quite some time. Steven Soderbergh teaming with Matt Damon is always a treat (this is their fifth collaboration). However, it certainly doesn’t hurt to also bill Gwyneth Paltrow, Marion Cotillard, Laurence Fishburne, Jude Law, John Hawkes and Kate Winslet. It’s not much of a stretch to call that the best cast of the year, what with 14 nominations and 4 Oscar wins between them, already.
The trailer screams one word more than anything else, and it’s all I could have ever hoped for: DARK. Many pieces of entertainment featuring lethal outbreaks and deadly diseases have come about over the years, Wolfgang Petersen’s film “Outbreak” and Tom Clancy’s novel “Rainbow Six” being the most prominent. What all of those works seem to portray is what MIGHT happen in the case of a deadly virus unleashed upon the world’s population. Instead of following that same formula, “Contagion” seems to portray instead what DOES, or what WILL happen in that case scenario. And in the hands of such a capable director, one who is known for taking a no-holds-barred approach to tense subject matter, this film might not only be genuinely frightening, but also brilliant, as both a white-knuckle thriller and a touching human tragedy.
This having been shot in Chicago, I know a number of people who worked on it. Through them, I’ve been privy to a few scenes that definitely back up some of the themes I just foreshadowed. However, I really hate to spoil anything at all, so I’ll just keep them to myself. I am a little miffed that they’ve pushed up the release from October to September. Having only finished shooting in the last month, I’m surprised they’re so confident in such a quick release. Also, September has become known as a no-man’s land for studios to dump films that get left over from summer’s slate, yet are not quite so confidence-inspiring to warrant a fall/holiday push. I hope that “Contagion” has not been lumped into said category.
Anyway, check out the fantastic trailer in full HD quality, below.
The 1st Annual Edgy Award Winners
Well, Hollywood’s biggest night is this Sunday. However, the biggest night for this particular blog is right here and now. I announced the nominees for this year’s Edgy Awards last week and it’s now time to bestow said honors upon the winners. As the results will show, several films have proven their excellence by taking a high number of awards. However, much of the love has been equally spread out. Interestingly, four films out of my Top Ten List went home empty handed, while a film that I would consider quite a disappointment still propelled itself to a win in one category.
Overall, these awards are a very accurate depiction of my opinion on films this year. Now, if only the Oscars had this type of taste. However, if the Oscars always matched exactly what one person thought the best, where’s the fun in that? That kind of reality would eliminate the fun of having an opinion in the first place. It would do away with genuine discussion and healthy argument over film. And, most importantly, it would take away from making this site it’s own unique vision.
NOTE: I have been awesome enough to include a video selection for each award chosen, either a short documentary describing the category or a clip from the film that best exhibits what it has been awarded. However, I can not guarantee that any of the clips selected do or do not contain spoilers. Therefore, if you haven’t yet seen the chosen film, do not watch the clip. Simple.
Also, a number of the clips do not allow embedment. But don’t give up, so easily. Just click the link and it will take you directly to the video’s Youtube link where you can view it. Once again, simple.
Without further adieu, here are the winners of the 2011 Edgy Awards!
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“If I Rise” featured in “127 Hours”
Music by A.R. Rahman and Lyrics by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
Runner-Up: “Bred and Buttered” featured in “Winter’s Bone”
My Top Ten List – 2010
Last year, I can remember the huge uproar against the AMPAS extending the amount of Best Picture nominees to ten. I can also remember, that through it all, I was one of this notion’s strongest supporters. I recognize the faults in the logic. It allows for lesser films that have no business being considered one of the year’s best to fight their way in due to endless campaigning and the votes of stupid people. This flaw took shape last year in the form of “The Blind Side” getting nominated for Best Picture.
However, the upsides of the expansion are far greater. It gives the field a more diverse look, for one. It’s nice to see films from a wide range of directors and collaborators. If allows also a mix of both intelligent box office hits and scrappy indy favorites. More than anything else, however, is that five films is just two few to sum up a year in cinema. Had the Academy enacted this ruling ten years ago, one would look back on certain films and think it a crime had they not been nominated, which they haven’t. Imagine a world if films like “The Wrestler,” “The Dark Knight,” “WALL-E,” “Into the Wild,” “Once,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “United 93,” “Little Children,” “Children of Men” and “Pan’s Labyrinth” could have been Best Picture nominees, and that’s only the last five years.
It must be for that reason that critics, for over fifty years, have been issuing top ten lists of their favorite films, rather than top five lists. It’s about that time, therefore, for The Edge of the Frame to release its own list for the 2010 year. I have now seen sixty films from 2010, which is low for me and not quite an respectable amount. Over the years, I’m sure that this list will change a spot or two as I see more, but for now, I believe that I’ve seen an acceptable sum to create an adequate list.
This has been a good year for film, but not really a great one. Out of sixty films, I gave only two films “A” grades. The year has had its high points and low points. For instance, it has been a great year for lead acting performances, but a rotten year for cinematography. For sure, I will always remember 2010 as the year that the Oscars snubbed its nose at great film and went home to their comfort zones. More than anything else, however, 2010 has been the year of the documentary. Never have I seen a year in cinema in which so many documentaries have captured my interest, let alone made it into my top ten.
As always there are a few stragglers that, even though they don’t qualify for my top ten, they still deserve an honorable mention. Therefore, this next selection of films are all very good, but just not good enough. They may be packed with amazing moments, but there’s also one too many flaws that have kept them down. So without further adieu, here are the films that just didn’t quite make it:
THE RUNNERS-UP

“127 Hours”
Directed by Danny Boyle
Written by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
Click HERE to see the rest of the list
My FINAL Oscar Predictions – 1/22
This is it. Last call before closing. Nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards will be announced this Tuesday, January 25th, at 7:30am CST (and you can bet I’ll be up hours before then, pumping myself up). For sure, there is a science behind the whole prediction game. A combination of elements, including what’s been happening with the critics groups awards, the different guild nominations and, in some cases, the film’s box office success. Along with that, there’s likability in each contender, how many times they’ve previously been nominated and won, a pseudo-mathematic question of their overall “due” status. Dozens of factors take shape in hugely methodic process, and this is all before anyone even takes into effect how good each contender is. Crazy, huh?
Well, a year-long process has now come to a close, and it’s time for me to nut up and offer my final predictions. The Best Picture line-up is basically down to 11 contenders, with two films vying for the final slot. It’s possible that either “Shutter Island” or “The Ghost Writer” could stage a massive coup and fight their way in their, but I doubt it. Some predictions that I’m sticking my neck out on? I’m still holding on to my convictions (and hopes) that the incredible John Hawkes can beat out Jeremy Renner in the Best Supporting Actor category. I’m also holding out hope that both of “Blue Valentine”‘s stars will outdo their older competition for leading notices. I’m also really hoping that “Exit Through the Gift Shop” can actually tickle the documentary branch’s funny bone (a feat not easily accomplished). Finally, here’s to “Winter’s Bone” edging out “The Town” for Best Picture. In fact, I’m predicting an across-the-board snub of the film. It’s only a slightly above action feature that has no business in the top ten. I have a strong feeling, though, that it will be this year’s “Blind Side.”
Without further adieu, here are the nominees (and once again, these are ranked in order of their chance of getting nominated, not winning):
BEST PICTURE
1. “The Social Network”
2. “The King’s Speech”
3. “The Fighter”
4. “Black Swan”
5. “Inception”
6. “Toy Story 3”
7. “True Grit”
8. “The Kids Are All Right”
9. “127 Hours”
10. “Winter’s Bone”
Alt 1: “The Town”
Alt 2: “Shutter Island”
Click READ MORE to see the rest.
Updated Oscar Predictions
What with everything that has happened in the last month in regards to the critics, the Globes and the SAGs, I figure that it’s time to do a full update on my Oscar predictions. Not a lot has shifted in the technical cateogories, except that “The Social Network” is looking more and more like a sure thing for a Best Original Score nomination. I’ve also taken “The King’s Speech” out of Best Editing. If it does miss that nomination, and somehow goes on to win Best Picture, it will be the first film in 30 years to win the big one without the support of the editors. Those two awards somehow go hand in hand.
As far as the acting categories go, Best Actor seems pretty much locked. Jesse Eisenberg has carved his name in stone and is just as solid as the top two contenders. There’s an outside chance that Ryan Gosling might break in and knock out one of the two veterans, but becoming less and less likely. A big question for Best Actress is who will take the place of Hilary Swank, after the odd as hell SAG nomination. I’m still betting on Lesley Manville, and not just because of the NBR stat, but because it’s a truly endearing character. However, much like Gosling, Williams is looming, and I can definitely see her getting a nomination, much like Laura Linney did for “The Savages” in 2007, and she didn’t even have the Golden Globe nod.
I think its safe to say that Justin Timberlake has fallen out of the running, especially since Andrew Garfield is no longer a lock. I refuse to predict Jeremy Renner until there’s no hope left. Never thought I’d find myself rooting against one of my favorite performers. My how the tables turn. I am however, hoping that the Academy will remain as bold as the SAG and nominate John Hawkes, but its a crap shoot. In Best Supporting Actress, it’s pretty solid that both of “The Fighter”‘s ladies will be making it in, though Leo definitely has the edge. Mila Kunis and Jacki Weaver will fight it out for the last slot.
One thing that I think is safe to say is that “The Fighter” is now as solid a contender as it has ever been. We shall see how it fares with the rest of the guilds, but from the SAGs and Globes, alone, it has gained even more ground than “Black Swan.”
Read all of my predictions after the jump:
BEST PICTURE
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Toy Story 3
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. The Fighter
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. 127 Hours
9. True Grit
10. Winter’s Bone
Alt 1: The Town
Alt 2: Another Year
Screen Actors Guild Nominations: My Thoughts
While trying not to put the cart before the horse, it is important to realize that the SAG is the real deal. What we have here is the most accurate precursor in regards to matching up to what the Oscar nominations will look like.
First of all, the actors make up, 3 times over, the largest contingent of the Academy, with producers and executives in 2nd, sound personnel in 3rd and writers in 4th. And while Best Ensemble does not always line up with Best Picture, the singular achievement nominations have lined up with Oscars, per say, about 80 to 90 percent of the time. Last year, was perhaps the most similar, with only 1 nominee in Best Supporting Actress not making it to Oscar (Diane Kruger). Best Actor, Actress and Supporting Actress lined up perfectly.
That being said, I’m mostly happy with these nominations, despite a few hiccups. Without a doubt, the most shocking and disturbing omission is Andrew Garfield in “The Social Network.” I thought that, if anything, he would be locked and Jesse Eisenberg would still have an uphill battle, despite all of the critical love. However, Garfield was the heart and soul of the film and anyone who can blaze through Sorkin dialogue, while still maintaining that level of emotion and integrity, deserves recognition.
The trouble is, who is to blame for this slight. If it is John Hawkes, then I cannot mourn for too long, because he is the one man that I want to appear in the eventual Oscar lineup ahead of Garfield. John Hawkes gives, quite simply, one of the best performances of the year and a true underdog story to boot. However, if it is Jeremy Renner who passed Andrew Garfield by, then I am appalled. Renner was absolutely stellar in “The Hurt Locker,” realistic, unique and all heart. In “The Town,” he is good, maybe the best performance in the film, but really nothing special at all. I still cannot believe the amount of buzz he’s receiving.
Another weird turn this morning was Hilary Swank getting in for her only slightly above average performance in “Conviction,” knocking out critical favorites Lesley Manville in “Another Year” and Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine.” What’s really weird about this is her inclusion, but not Sam Rockwell or Juliette Lewis, the individuals in the film that people have actually been talking about. A true out-of-the-blue nomination, and really kind of a hilarious one seeing that she is once again up against Annette Bening, who lost the Best Actress race to Swank twice in the last 11 years.
A little known fact, if Lesley Manville is not nominated for an Oscar, she will be the first woman to win the National Board of Review award for Best Actress and not go on to an Oscar nod since the year 1990 when Mia Farrow failed to secure a nomination for Woody Allen’s “Alice.” In superstitious terms, that’s a long streak to be broken.
Mila Kunis made a surprise appearance here. Kind of boggled by that, because as funny and peppy as she is, it’s really not that solid of a performance. Barbara Hershey was a standout, if ever anyone could stand out around Natalie Portman’s brilliance.
Now, the good things. I’ve already addressed my absolute elation for John Hawkes come-from-behind nomination, even if he has a long shot, even if hell does freeze over, of actually winning. I must also congratulate Jesse Eisenberg, who has now all but engraved his nomination in cement. Truly brilliant work. and while I haven’t seen “True Grit,” it’s nice to see Jeff Bridges show up here, especially after his snub at the Golden Globes.
While I wasn’t really expecting any kind of showing for it, it’s kind of sad to see yet another Christopher Nolan film snubbed from the Ensemble Cast category, let alone any other category in the case of “Inception.” True, the first thing the mind goes to when it comes to this film is the visuals, the story and the direction. Yet, it is an ensemble piece, through and through, with so many actors (Leonardo DiCaprio, Ellen Page, Joesph Gordon Levitt, Ken Watanabe, Cillian Murphy, Marion Cotillard, and, of course, Tom Hardy) all pulling their weight more than needed. And while “Black Swan” does have decent performances all around, it’s really Natalie Portman’s show. One deserved this nomination more than the other, and it’s going home empty-handed.
My longshot predictions for the win would probably go like this:
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
“The King’s Speech”
alt: “The Fighter”
BEST ACTOR
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
alt: James Franco – “127 Hours”
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening “The Kids Are All Right”
alt: Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
alt: Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
alt: Helena Bonham Carter – “The King’s Speech
We shall see.
17th Screen Actors Guild Nominations
All I will post my full reactions in the next few hours. In the meantime I leave you with one thought: John Hawkes, John Hawkes, JOHN GODDAMN HAWKES!!!!!!! Thank you very much.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
Jeff Bridges – “True Grit”
Robert Duvall – “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg – “The Social Network”
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
James Franco – “127 Hours”
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman – “The Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Hilary Swank – “Conviction”
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
John Hawkes – “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner – “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo – “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech”
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams – “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham-Carter – “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis – “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld – “True Grit”
San Francisco Film Critics Ring In
San Francisco always seems to be my favorite critics group of the year. They always seem to make at least one inspired choice that makes me all warm inside. One of my fondest memories was “Little Children” making an unexpected sweep of 3 major categories in 2006, thus thrusting the film into the awards race.
And this year, they’ve done it again, by giving Best Supporting Actor to John Hawkes for “Winter’s Bone.” So far, it’s my pick for that particular award. Truly an outstanding job by a underrated performer.
Other than that, the continuing legacy that is “The Social Network.”
Full list of winners:
BEST PICTURE
“The Social Network”
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky – “Black Swan” AND David Fincher – “The Social Network” (TIE)
BEST ACTOR
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
BEST ACTRESS
Michelle Williams – “Blue Valentine”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
John Hawkes – “Winter’s Bone”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jacki Weaver – “Animal Kingdom”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The King’s Speech”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“The Social Network”
BEST ANIMATED FILM
“Toy Story 3”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Mother”
BEST DOCUMENTARY
“The Tillman Story”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Black Swan”