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My FINAL Oscar Predictions – 1/22
This is it. Last call before closing. Nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards will be announced this Tuesday, January 25th, at 7:30am CST (and you can bet I’ll be up hours before then, pumping myself up). For sure, there is a science behind the whole prediction game. A combination of elements, including what’s been happening with the critics groups awards, the different guild nominations and, in some cases, the film’s box office success. Along with that, there’s likability in each contender, how many times they’ve previously been nominated and won, a pseudo-mathematic question of their overall “due” status. Dozens of factors take shape in hugely methodic process, and this is all before anyone even takes into effect how good each contender is. Crazy, huh?
Well, a year-long process has now come to a close, and it’s time for me to nut up and offer my final predictions. The Best Picture line-up is basically down to 11 contenders, with two films vying for the final slot. It’s possible that either “Shutter Island” or “The Ghost Writer” could stage a massive coup and fight their way in their, but I doubt it. Some predictions that I’m sticking my neck out on? I’m still holding on to my convictions (and hopes) that the incredible John Hawkes can beat out Jeremy Renner in the Best Supporting Actor category. I’m also holding out hope that both of “Blue Valentine”‘s stars will outdo their older competition for leading notices. I’m also really hoping that “Exit Through the Gift Shop” can actually tickle the documentary branch’s funny bone (a feat not easily accomplished). Finally, here’s to “Winter’s Bone” edging out “The Town” for Best Picture. In fact, I’m predicting an across-the-board snub of the film. It’s only a slightly above action feature that has no business in the top ten. I have a strong feeling, though, that it will be this year’s “Blind Side.”
Without further adieu, here are the nominees (and once again, these are ranked in order of their chance of getting nominated, not winning):
BEST PICTURE
1. “The Social Network”
2. “The King’s Speech”
3. “The Fighter”
4. “Black Swan”
5. “Inception”
6. “Toy Story 3”
7. “True Grit”
8. “The Kids Are All Right”
9. “127 Hours”
10. “Winter’s Bone”
Alt 1: “The Town”
Alt 2: “Shutter Island”
Click READ MORE to see the rest.
Screen Actors Guild Nominations: My Thoughts
While trying not to put the cart before the horse, it is important to realize that the SAG is the real deal. What we have here is the most accurate precursor in regards to matching up to what the Oscar nominations will look like.
First of all, the actors make up, 3 times over, the largest contingent of the Academy, with producers and executives in 2nd, sound personnel in 3rd and writers in 4th. And while Best Ensemble does not always line up with Best Picture, the singular achievement nominations have lined up with Oscars, per say, about 80 to 90 percent of the time. Last year, was perhaps the most similar, with only 1 nominee in Best Supporting Actress not making it to Oscar (Diane Kruger). Best Actor, Actress and Supporting Actress lined up perfectly.
That being said, I’m mostly happy with these nominations, despite a few hiccups. Without a doubt, the most shocking and disturbing omission is Andrew Garfield in “The Social Network.” I thought that, if anything, he would be locked and Jesse Eisenberg would still have an uphill battle, despite all of the critical love. However, Garfield was the heart and soul of the film and anyone who can blaze through Sorkin dialogue, while still maintaining that level of emotion and integrity, deserves recognition.
The trouble is, who is to blame for this slight. If it is John Hawkes, then I cannot mourn for too long, because he is the one man that I want to appear in the eventual Oscar lineup ahead of Garfield. John Hawkes gives, quite simply, one of the best performances of the year and a true underdog story to boot. However, if it is Jeremy Renner who passed Andrew Garfield by, then I am appalled. Renner was absolutely stellar in “The Hurt Locker,” realistic, unique and all heart. In “The Town,” he is good, maybe the best performance in the film, but really nothing special at all. I still cannot believe the amount of buzz he’s receiving.
Another weird turn this morning was Hilary Swank getting in for her only slightly above average performance in “Conviction,” knocking out critical favorites Lesley Manville in “Another Year” and Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine.” What’s really weird about this is her inclusion, but not Sam Rockwell or Juliette Lewis, the individuals in the film that people have actually been talking about. A true out-of-the-blue nomination, and really kind of a hilarious one seeing that she is once again up against Annette Bening, who lost the Best Actress race to Swank twice in the last 11 years.
A little known fact, if Lesley Manville is not nominated for an Oscar, she will be the first woman to win the National Board of Review award for Best Actress and not go on to an Oscar nod since the year 1990 when Mia Farrow failed to secure a nomination for Woody Allen’s “Alice.” In superstitious terms, that’s a long streak to be broken.
Mila Kunis made a surprise appearance here. Kind of boggled by that, because as funny and peppy as she is, it’s really not that solid of a performance. Barbara Hershey was a standout, if ever anyone could stand out around Natalie Portman’s brilliance.
Now, the good things. I’ve already addressed my absolute elation for John Hawkes come-from-behind nomination, even if he has a long shot, even if hell does freeze over, of actually winning. I must also congratulate Jesse Eisenberg, who has now all but engraved his nomination in cement. Truly brilliant work. and while I haven’t seen “True Grit,” it’s nice to see Jeff Bridges show up here, especially after his snub at the Golden Globes.
While I wasn’t really expecting any kind of showing for it, it’s kind of sad to see yet another Christopher Nolan film snubbed from the Ensemble Cast category, let alone any other category in the case of “Inception.” True, the first thing the mind goes to when it comes to this film is the visuals, the story and the direction. Yet, it is an ensemble piece, through and through, with so many actors (Leonardo DiCaprio, Ellen Page, Joesph Gordon Levitt, Ken Watanabe, Cillian Murphy, Marion Cotillard, and, of course, Tom Hardy) all pulling their weight more than needed. And while “Black Swan” does have decent performances all around, it’s really Natalie Portman’s show. One deserved this nomination more than the other, and it’s going home empty-handed.
My longshot predictions for the win would probably go like this:
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
“The King’s Speech”
alt: “The Fighter”
BEST ACTOR
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
alt: James Franco – “127 Hours”
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening “The Kids Are All Right”
alt: Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
alt: Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
alt: Helena Bonham Carter – “The King’s Speech
We shall see.
17th Screen Actors Guild Nominations
All I will post my full reactions in the next few hours. In the meantime I leave you with one thought: John Hawkes, John Hawkes, JOHN GODDAMN HAWKES!!!!!!! Thank you very much.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
Jeff Bridges – “True Grit”
Robert Duvall – “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg – “The Social Network”
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
James Franco – “127 Hours”
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman – “The Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Hilary Swank – “Conviction”
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
John Hawkes – “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner – “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo – “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech”
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams – “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham-Carter – “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis – “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld – “True Grit”
Broadcast Film Critics Association Nominations
The BFCA is a collection of around 250 film critics from the TV, radio and online outlets. Their awards and nominations are usually quite closely linked with the Academy, something they actually pride themselves on as though they’re predicting the Oscars rather than awarding their favorite choices. However, that being said, the nominations and wins usually create an accurate template for how the Academy Award nominations roughly might look like.
In that respect, it appears that “Black Swan” (which led the noms with 12!!!), “The King’s Speech” and “True Grit” (each with 11 noms) aren’t going away anytime soon. Some might think that “The Social Network” came up short of these with only 8 nominations, but it is still the frontrunner for the win. It only cannot compete in the technical categories like Art Direction and Costume Design, among others. Riding its current wave, it would be one of the biggest upsets in history to not see David Fincher’s work go home with the grand prize, here.
Otherwise, there are virtually no surprises here. Lesley Manville was unfortunately snubbed for a Best Actress nomination. In fact, “Another Year,” which hasn’t been seen in the states much, yet, was left completely out aside from an Original Screenplay nod. Also, “The Town” managed a Best Picture nomination. It has officially positioned itself as the possible pedestrian nomination for Best Picture, an unfortunate side effect of having ten nominees. Surprisingly, it took the slot of “The Kids Are All Right,” a big heavyweight going into January.
Another big surprise was….wait….no, I’m afraid there are no surprises here. Read up, and I’ll try to report something with a little more edge hopefully. The New York Film Critics Circle announces sometime in the next 6 hours.
Full List of Nominations:
BEST PICTURE
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
“TOY GRIT” Mash-up = Amazing!
I will be getting to some more reviews, shortly. But I found this today and it is absolutely hilarious. One never really can get sick of trailer mashups, and this one of the 3 “Toy Story” movies to “True Grit” is absolutely priceless. Watch this. You won’t regret it.
“The Contender,” Revisited
So as I said, this site will not only be featuring reviews of films that I have never before seen, but also brief revisitations to films that I decide to watch again. Ironically enough, the first installment of these is, in my mind, one of the most underrated films of the previous decade and one that I’d love a chance to get on my soapbox for.
“The Contender” was released in 2000 with the helm of writer/director Rod Lurie and tells the story of the first woman ever to be nominated to fill the seat of the Vice President, along with a select group of Republican Congressman intent on destroying her by way of a sex scandal. This is an excellent film that really sets a statute for what political thrillers can be. The writing, while, at times, preachy, is honest and scathing. It is a no-holds-barred account of leadership at the highest level, like “The West Wing” told from a much darker perspective.
Rod Lurie stumbles on a few directorial roadblocks, making it awkwardly cheesy and almost a bit too “Capraesque” at points that don’t help to serve the overall tone of the film. However, it’s the investigation hearings in the House chamber where his style really shines. The mood is stark and realistic. The static camera angles heighten that sense of reality as though you were watching a much more interesting version of C-SPAN 2.
The film features an absolute wealth of stunning acting. Joan Allen definitely carries the weight of the lead role. The audience has little to no trouble standing behind her despite the heaviness of her character’s burdens. Jeff Bridges successfully transforms “The Dude” into a completely desirable presidential figure. Collected, funny and thoroughly inspiring. Many of the smaller roles pull there weight well, including Kathryn Morris, Mike Binder and especially Sam Elliott.
However, the true star of this film and the reason I can watch it over and over again is the magic of Gary Oldman. He embodies this character to a “t” as he does to so many others. His mannerisms and appearance carefully articulate the sense of piety that the congressman he plays holds for those on the other side of the aisle. And he engages us, constantly, just as he engages his enemy, without any sense of remorse or regret. He mercilessly tears through the script and leaves us with an antagonist both hate-inspiring, and yet equally human. By far, it is Oldman’s finest performance. In my eyes, one of the greatest supporting turns of all time, maybe the best of that decade.
GRADES: A- * * * *1/2 / * * * * * 9.2 / 10.0
Full Length “True Grit” Trailer
People are going to think that this is actually a “True Grit” FYC site, but trust me it’s not. However, I was very surprised to see a full length trailer for “True Grit” at an early showing of “The Social Network,” especially after the fantastic teaser was released only a few days beforehand. I’m over the mystery, however, because any fears that this film will not be everything that it can be, including an Oscar contender, should now be assuaged:
I will try to post a good HD copy as soon as it becomes available.
“True Grit” Trailer
So there’s a lot of organizational facets that I plan to get up and running soon. But I’ve got to address the story that has been occupying a large amount of my interest this week, and that is the long-awaited trailer for this winter’s release of “True Grit.” The new film by the ever-busy Coen Brothers is an adaptation of Charles Portis’ classic western (I’ve noticed now that many filmmakers have been avoiding the term “REMAKE” by citing the original source material as much as humanly possible).
This film has been a major contender flying very low under the radar. Until now, the only thing people have had to go on was a screenshot and a few production stills. Now that it has reared its ugly head, I think it’s safe to say that a number of nominations will headed its way this January. One thing in particular that a number of people I know can really cross there fingers for would be a long-deserved Oscar statuette for Roger Deakins, arguably the best director of photography working today. And if the images of this trailer paint an accurate picture as to the look and style of this film, then wishes might just be granted.
Enjoy this collage of visual and thematic splendor:
For better resolution get the hi-def at Apple Trailers: