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First Oscar Winner Predictions
It’s time for phase 2, ladies and gentleman. Things aren’t going as well as I would have liked, but they almost never do. As Sasha Stone at Awardsdaily quotes “All the President’s Men,” in regards to the Oscar race, “The trick is not minding.” You’ve got to roll with the punches and accept that even if the deserving film doesn’t win, hopefully your predictions are still right. Therefore, at least your pride is still intact.
I have “The King’s Speech” down for the big win, sadly. Maybe later on, if there’s a potential change in vibe, I might make an alteration back. But for now, one has to put the money where the money’s gonna win. I have, meanwhile, kept David Fincher in the frontrunner position for Best Director. I simply cannot imagine a world in which Tom Hooper wins that trophy from him. It’s simply unnatural that the Academy could be that ridiculous.
You can pretty much take all of the acting wins to the bank. Melissa Leo is the only one who’s kind of flimsy, at this point, but I have a feeling her age and fantastic personality will help her beat out the unworthy newcomer.
Going over this, it still boggles me that Lee Smith missed an editing nomination for “Inception.” It really makes no sense. I have the “The Social Network” down, and my God, it deserves it. Yet, the nomination feels flimsy, and yet I can’t figure out what could possibly take it down.
With that, here are my first winner predictions for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, complete with all of the nominees ranked in order of their chances. I will keep them posted and, hopefully, updated in the “PREDICTIONS” tab at the top of the homepage.
Click “Read More” to see the full list and tally.
BEST PICTURE
1. “The King’s Speech”
2. “The Social Network”
3. “The Fighter”
4. “True Grit”
5. “Black Swan”
6. “Toy Story 3”
7. “Inception”
8. “127 Hours”
9. “Winter’s Bone”
10. “The Kids Are All Right”
My FINAL Oscar Predictions – 1/22
This is it. Last call before closing. Nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards will be announced this Tuesday, January 25th, at 7:30am CST (and you can bet I’ll be up hours before then, pumping myself up). For sure, there is a science behind the whole prediction game. A combination of elements, including what’s been happening with the critics groups awards, the different guild nominations and, in some cases, the film’s box office success. Along with that, there’s likability in each contender, how many times they’ve previously been nominated and won, a pseudo-mathematic question of their overall “due” status. Dozens of factors take shape in hugely methodic process, and this is all before anyone even takes into effect how good each contender is. Crazy, huh?
Well, a year-long process has now come to a close, and it’s time for me to nut up and offer my final predictions. The Best Picture line-up is basically down to 11 contenders, with two films vying for the final slot. It’s possible that either “Shutter Island” or “The Ghost Writer” could stage a massive coup and fight their way in their, but I doubt it. Some predictions that I’m sticking my neck out on? I’m still holding on to my convictions (and hopes) that the incredible John Hawkes can beat out Jeremy Renner in the Best Supporting Actor category. I’m also holding out hope that both of “Blue Valentine”‘s stars will outdo their older competition for leading notices. I’m also really hoping that “Exit Through the Gift Shop” can actually tickle the documentary branch’s funny bone (a feat not easily accomplished). Finally, here’s to “Winter’s Bone” edging out “The Town” for Best Picture. In fact, I’m predicting an across-the-board snub of the film. It’s only a slightly above action feature that has no business in the top ten. I have a strong feeling, though, that it will be this year’s “Blind Side.”
Without further adieu, here are the nominees (and once again, these are ranked in order of their chance of getting nominated, not winning):
BEST PICTURE
1. “The Social Network”
2. “The King’s Speech”
3. “The Fighter”
4. “Black Swan”
5. “Inception”
6. “Toy Story 3”
7. “True Grit”
8. “The Kids Are All Right”
9. “127 Hours”
10. “Winter’s Bone”
Alt 1: “The Town”
Alt 2: “Shutter Island”
Click READ MORE to see the rest.
Chicago Film Critics Pick “The Social Network”
So, some nice news from the home front. It’s just been announced that my town of Chicago has picked “The Social Network” as its number one film of the year. I can now rest easy.
Aside from that, however, I’m afraid that these awards are really kind of boring. Nice to see “Exit Through the Gift Shop” getting a consistent amount of love. Hopefully, it will gain enough traction to at least make it to a nomination for Best Documentary. Hailee Steinfeld is really starting to rack in the awards, as well, though I don’t think she has much of a chance. The Academy loves to nominate child actors, but only once in a blue moon do they actually hand over the gold to them.
Aside from the possible backlash that might be headed it’s way, I still see absolutely no boredom or regret over this unprecedented domination of the awards season. As I’ve said since the first time I saw it, this is one of the best films I’ve ever seen. It is nearly flawless, down to the last detail. I also don’t think there has ever been a film that better defines my generation. I don’t think that we’re likely to see a film this good come along for some time.
Check out the continuing tally of “The Social Network”‘s critical wins and nominations here.
I have the full list of winners after the jump or you can read the official press release from the CFCA.
Best Picture
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“Winter’s Bone”
Toronto Film Critics Association Announces
Toronto has just announced not only a “Social Network” win, but more or less a complete sweep of their awards. One of the most interesting of these awards, and I believe the first of its kind, is the Best Supporting Actor Award going to Armie Hammer in his duel performance as the Winklevi. While I believe Andrew Garfield is the soul of the supporting roles in this film, it’s very nice to see Hammer get some recognition for such an energized and inspired performance.
Another big surprise is “How to Train Your Dragon” upheaving “Toy Story 3” in Best Animated Feature. “HTTYD” is an enjoyable and thrilling film, but “Toy Story 3” is one of the greatest animated achievements of all time, in my opinion. It deserves a sweep of that category as much as “The Social Network deserves its.
Here’s the full list of winners:
BEST PICTURE
“The Social Network”
R/U: “Black Swan” AND “Uncle Boonme Who Can Recall His Past Lives”
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher – “The Social Network”
R/U: Darren Aronofsky – “The Social Network” AND Christopher Nolan – “Inception”
BEST ACTOR
Jesse Eisenberg – “The Social Network”
R/U: Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech” AND James Franco – “127 Hours”
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence – “Winter’s Bone”
R/U: Natalie Portman – “Black Swan” AND Michelle Williams – “Blue Valentine”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Armie Hammer – “The Social Network”
R/U: Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech” AND Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hailee Steinfeld – “True Grit”
R/U: Amy Adams – “The Fighter” AND Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
BEST SCREENPLAY
“The Social Network”
R/U: “The King’s Speech” AND “True Grit”
BEST FIRST FEATURE
“Exit Through the Gift Shop”
R/U: “Get Low” AND “Monsters”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“How to Train Your Dragon”
R/U: “Despicable Me” AND “Toy Story 3”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Exit Through the Gift Shop”
R/U: “Inside Job” AND “Marwencol”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives”
R/U: “Mother” AND “Of Gods and Men”