The Edge of the Frame

Every year I seem to cut it closer and closer to game time. Lots to deliberate on, but really it just comes down to how many Oscars will “La La Land” NOT win. We’ll find out. See my predix below, as well as my picks if I had a ballot:

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BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR

WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”

BEST DIRECTOR

WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle – “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: Denis Villeneuve – “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: Robert Eggers – “The Witch”

BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
MIGHT WIN: Denzel Washington – “Fences”
MY VOTE: Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
SHOULD BE HERE: Joel Edgerton – “Loving”

BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Emma Stone – “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: Isabelle Huppert – “Elle”
MY VOTE: Natalie Portman – “Jackie”
SHOULD BE HERE: Amy Adams – “Arrival”

BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight”
MIGHT WIN: Dev Patel – “Lion”
MY VOTE: Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: Ralph Fiennes – “A Bigger Splash”

BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: Viola Davis – “Fences”
MIGHT WIN: Umm…
MY VOTE: Viola Davis – “Fences”
SHOULD BE HERE: Greta Gerwig – “20th Century Women”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “Manchester by the Sea”
MIGHT WIN: “La La Land”
MY VOTE: “Manchester by the Sea”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “Moonlight”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Loving”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

WILL WIN: “The Salesman”
MIGHT WIN: “Toni Erdmann”
MY VOTE: “N/A”
SHOULD BE HERE: “N/A”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN: “O.J. Made in America”
MIGHT WIN: “13th”
MY VOTE: “13th”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Tower”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WILL WIN: “Zootopia”
MIGHT WIN: “Kubo and the Two Strings”
MY VOTE: “Zootopia”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Sausage Party”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Lion”
MY VOTE: “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”

BEST EDITING

WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Midnight Special”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Hail, Caesar!”
MY VOTE: “Hail, Caesar!”
SHOULD BE HERE: “The Witch”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN: “Jackie”
MIGHT WIN: “La La Land”
MY VOTE: “Jackie”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Silence”

BEST SOUND MIXING

WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Blair Witch”

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

WILL WIN: “Arrival”
MIGHT WIN: “Hacksaw Ridge”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Midnight Special”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN: “Jungle Book”
MIGHT WIN: “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
MY VOTE: “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Arrival”

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

WILL WIN: “Suicide Squad”
MIGHT WIN: “Star Trek: Beyond”
MY VOTE: “Suicide Squad”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Hacksaw Ridge”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Arrival”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WILL WIN: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”
MY VOTE: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Heathens” from “Suicide Squad”

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Sing”
MIGHT WIN: “Ennemis Interieurs”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Piper”
MIGHT WIN: “Borrowed Time”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

WILL WIN: “The White Helmets”
MIGHT WIN: “Joe’s Violin”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A