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Final Predictions for the 85th Academy Awards
With the clock ticking, unfortunately, there’s not much time for discussion or justification. I’m just going to have to spit these out and see what happens in a matter of hours. Enjoy, and don’t forget to check back to see the results in the morning.
BEST PICTURE
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Silver Linings Playbook”
6. “Life of Pi”
7. “Moonrise Kingdom”
8. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
9. “Skyfall”
10. “Amour”
Alt 1: Django Unchained
Alt 2: “The Master”
(NOTE: Again, Best Picture could end up being anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees, so in this case, you can use the ideology of “if there are five…if there are six…etc”)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
3. Ben Affleck – “Argo”
4. Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
5. Tom Hooper” – “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: Michael Haneke – “Amour
Alt 2: Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”
BEST LEADING ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
2. Denzel Washington – “Flight”
3. Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
4. John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
5. Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Alt 1: Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
2. Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
3. Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
4. Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
5. Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
Alt 1: Quevenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 2: Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
3. Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. Alan Arkin – “Argo”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”
Alt 2: Christoph Waltz” – “Django Unchained”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
2. Sally Field – “Lincoln”
3. Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
4. Amy Adams – “The Master”
5. Ann Dowd – “Compliance”
Alt 1: Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Alt 2: Judi Dench – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Argo”
3. “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
5. “Life of Pi”
Alt 1: “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
Alt 2: “The Sessions”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Moonrise Kingdom”
3. “The Master”
4. “Amour”
5. “Looper”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Middle of Nowhere”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. “The Gatekeepers”
2. “The Invisible War”
3. “Searching for Sugar Man”
4. “The House I Live In”
5. “Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”
Alt 1: “How to Survive a Plague”
Alt 2: “5 Broken Cameras”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. “Brave”
2. “Frankenweenie”
3. “Wreck It Ralph”
4. “Paranorman”
5. “Rise of the Guardians”
Alt 1: “The Painting”
Alt 2: “Zarafa”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. “Amour”
2. “The Intouchables”
3. “War Witch”
4. “A Royal Affair”
5. “No”
Alt 1: “Sister”
Alt 2: “Kon Tiki”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “Lincoln”
4. “The Master”
5. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “Anna Karenina”
BEST EDITING
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Argo”
3. “Skyfall”
4. “Lincoln”
5. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: “Life of Pi”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “The Master”
5. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “The Dark Knight Rises”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Les Miserables”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “Django Unchained”
5. “Mirror Mirror”
Alt 1: “A Royal Affair”
Alt 2: “Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “Zero Dark Thirty”
4. “The Avengers”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”
Alt 1: “Lincoln”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
1. “Skyfall”
2. “The Dark Knight Rises”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Prometheus”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “John Carter”
BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS
1. “Lincoln”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Men in Black 3″
Alt 2: “Looper”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Anna Karenina”
5. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 1: “The Master”
Alt 2: “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Skyfall” – “Skyfall”
2. “Suddenly” – “Les Miserables”
3. “Learn Me Right” – “Brave”
4. “Still Alive” – “Paul Williams Still Alive”
5. “Ancora Qui” – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “From Here to the Moon and Back” – “Joyful Noise”
Alt 2: “Song of the Lonely Mountain” – “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Updated 2013 Oscar Predictions – 12/29
It’s less than two weeks left until the big morning comes, but with everything that’s happened thus far, I thought it would be a good time to re-assess things. Obviously, “Zero Dark Thirty” has largely positioned itself at the head of the pack and Daniel Day Lewis is lined up for another coronation. However, many of the major categories still seem much more open then normal.
In the next two weeks, the guilds will really start to have their say. Throughout the last decade or so, these union groups nominations have very tight links to the eventual nominations. On the other hand, this year will be a unique one. For the first time, the DGA nominations won’t be announced until after Oscar ballots are due in. Therefore, this year, the DGA, which was always believed to have a large impact on not only Best Director, but the Best Picture category as well. Or perhaps this year will prove that theory wrong, in the event that we see the two organizations line-up without any connection proves that they really do think alike. We shall see.
Here’s my latest round of predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Silver Linings Playbook”
6. “Moonrise Kingdom”
7. “Life of Pi”
8. “Amour”
9. “The Master”
10. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 1: Django Unchained
Alt 2: “Skyfall”
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
3. Ben Affleck – “Argo”
4. Tom Hooper – “Les Miserables”
5. David O’Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 1: Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
Alt 2: Michael Haneke – “Amour”
BEST LEADING ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
2. Denzel Washington – “Flight”
3. Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
4. John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
5. Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Alt 1: Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
2. Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
3. Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
4. Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
5. Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
Alt 1: Quevenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 2: Rachel Weisz – “The Deep Blue Sea”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
3. Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. Alan Arkin – “Argo”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”
Alt 2: Eddie Redmayne – “Les Miserables”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
2. Sally Field – “Lincoln”
3. Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
4. Amy Adams – “The Master”
5. Ann Dowd – “Compliance”
Alt 1: Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Alt 2: Judi Dench – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Argo”
3. “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
5. “Life of Pi”
Alt 1: “The Sessions”
Alt 2: “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “The Master”
3. “Moonrise Kingdom”
4. “Amour”
5. “Looper”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Seven Psychopaths”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. “The Gatekeepers”
2. “The Invisible War”
3. “Searching for Sugar Man”
4. “The House I Live In”
5. “Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”
Alt 1: “How to Survive a Plague”
Alt 2: “Bully”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. “Brave”
2. “Frankenweenie”
3. “Wreck It Ralph”
4. “Paranorman”
5. “Rise of the Guardians”
Alt 1: “The Painting”
Alt 2: “Zarafa”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. “Amour”
2. “The Intouchables”
3. “A Royal Affair”
4. “War Witch”
5. “Sister”
Alt 1: “No”
Alt 2: “Kon Tiki”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Master”
3. “Skyfall”
4. “Lincoln”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 1: “Les Miserables”
Alt 2: “Django Unchained”
BEST EDITING
1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Argo”
3. “Lincoln”
4. “Skyfall”
5. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: “LIfe of Pi”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “The Master”
5. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “Moonrise Kingdom”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Lincoln”
2. “Les Miserables”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “Mirror Mirror”
5. “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “A Royal Affair”
Alt 2: “Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “The Dark Knight Rises”
4. “The Avengers”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Life of Pi”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
1. “Skyfall”
2. “The Dark Knight Rises”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Prometheus”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”
Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “John Carter”
BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS
1. “Lincoln”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “Les Miserables”
Alt 1: “Looper”
Alt 2: “Men in Black 3”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Anna Karenina”
5. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 1: “The Master”
Alt 2: “Skyfall”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Skyfall” – “Skyfall”
2. “Suddenly” – “Les Miserables”
3. “Learn Me Right” – “Brave”
4. “Still Alive” – “Paul Williams Still Alive”
5. “Ancora Qui” – “Django Unchained”
Alt 1: “From Here to the Moon and Back” – “Joyful Noise”
Alt 2: “Still Dream” – “Rise of the Guardians”
NOMINATIONS TALLY
12 – “Lincoln”
11 – “Les Miserables”
7 – “The Master”
7 – “Zero Dark Thirty”
6 – “Argo”
5 – “Life of Pi”
5 – “Silver Linings Playbook”
5 – “Skyfall”
4 – “Amour”
4 – “Django Unchained”
3 – “Anna Karenina”
3 – “The Avengers”
3 – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
3 – “The Dark Knight Rises”
3 – “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
2 – “Brave”
2 – “Moonrise Kingdom”
2 – “The Sessions”
2013 Oscar Predictions: “Just when I thought I was out…”
“…they pull me back in.” That’s right folks. It has now been nearly nine months since my last official post on The Edge of the Frame and I am severely out of practice. The close of last year’s Oscar season ironically coincided with my being hired into full time employment. Spending nine hours a day composing upwards of seventy-five emails and compiling online data have made coming home and getting behind a computer screen a not-so-welcoming scenario. A couple of hours of “The X-Files” on Netflix or “The Sopranos” on DVD have become a much more viable way to close out an evening. All of this partnered with a summer of fantasy baseball and my engagement to the woman I love have left comparably little time for my beloved little website.
However, as it turns out, old habits die hard. I’ve been watching the Oscars religiously for fifteen years and been dipping my toe into prognostication for the last seven. There’s no way I can sit this one out. There’s a lot of work to be done. Working full time has more or less hindered my rate of viewing new releases. I’ve got a schedule of about 36 films to see, both on Netflix and in theaters, over the next three months. However, with the first of the critics’ awards just around the corner, things are about to get very busy. Even before everything is seen and done, it’s about time that I offer a bit of perspective on how this year’s race is going to play out.
Some of the year’s biggest contenders have retained their position at the head of the race (“Les Miserables,” “Lincoln,”), practically since they were originally announced. Others have taken a hefty fall from grace (“The Master,” “The Dark Knight Rises”). A few projects have sprung up from out of the blue to become bonafide Best Picture threats (“The Silver Linings Playbook,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,”), while a couple that have barely been seen at all remain a mystery to many (“Zero Dark Thirty,” “Django Unchained”).
However, it’s never too early (or too late, in my case) to start putting the pieces together and assembling a picture of how the board will look almost exactly three months to the date. Listed below are my predictions for the 85th Annual Academy Award nominations. They’re ranked by the chances of each film (or individual) getting nominated. Winning does not come into play here. As complicated as it is, sometimes a person could have a lot easier a path getting nominated for an Oscar, then they ever would of winning. Ask Peter O’Toole if you need more info…
Enjoy, and remember that this whole chalkboard might be completely erased and scribbled down again, a month from now:
BEST PICTURE
1. “Argo”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Les Miserables”
4. “Silver Linings Playbook”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”
6. “The Master”
7. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
8. “Moonrise Kingdom”
9. “Life of Pi”
10. “The Sessions”
Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Amour”
Alt 3: “Flight”
The Edge of the Frame 