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Golden Globe Predictions
Well, it’s that time of the year, and that time happens to be my least favorite. As much as I love and anticipate the Oscars, I absolutely loathe the Golden Globes. I feel that they are kind of a travesty to cinema and the entire awards tradition. If there was ever a group that completely sold out to bribery, star-fucking and just straight-up bad taste, it would be the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. That being said, they are still the second most publicized awards presentation of the year and I must give them some kind of credence.
If “The Social Network”‘s never-ending streak of victories was to falter at all during the season, I would hope it to be here. That way, I can chalk it up with the rest of the Globes’ terrible decisions over the years. If it wins, all the better for it. To be honest, I would almost feel more comfortable with it losing the HFPA’s Best Picture. In the last six years, the award for Best Picture has only criss-crossed between Oscar and Globe once, and that was for “Slumdog Millionaire.” Here’s a rough breakdown of the HFPA’s comparison to the Academy:
AMPAS
2009: “The Hurt Locker”
2008: “Slumdog Millionaire”
2007: “No Country for Old Men”
2006: “The Departed”
2005: “Crash”
2004: “Million Dollar Baby”
HFPA
2009: “Avatar”
2008: “Slumdog Millionaire”
2007: “Atonement”
2006: “Babel”
2005: “Brokeback Mountain”
2004: “The Aviator”
Outside of “Brokeback Mountain” and “The Aviator,” I think the Academy has picked the better film every year since then. Therefore, I almost take “The Social Network” losing Best Picture tomorrow night to be a compliment, as long as it goes on to win the Oscar.
If there was a film that could curry enough favor to take down “The Social Network,” it will probably be “The King’s Speech.” Aside from having not that great taste, the Globes also have a penchant for picking films with a little more international flair. At least, they seem to not go for films with thoroughly American themes, in the case of “The Departed,” “No Country for Old Men” and “The Hurt Locker.” I would definitely put “The Social Network” into this category.
However, I will not lose faith. Maybe, for once, the Globes will shock me with brilliance and “The Social Network” will edge out a victory. For sure, I cannot imagine any other film winning for Director or Screenplay, and if it can take down those two, why not the big one?
Here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
“The Social Network”
r/u: “The King’s Speech”
BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY
“The Kids Are All Right”
r/u: “Alice in Wonderland”
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher – “The Social Network”
r/u: Darren Aronofsky – “Black Swan”
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
r/u: James Franco – “127 Hours”
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
r/u: Nicole Kidman – “Rabbit Hole”
BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL/COMEDY (the most wide-open category; could really be anyone)
Johnny Depp – “Alice in Wonderland”
r/u: Paul Giamatti – “Barney’s Version”
BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL/COMEDY
Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
r/u: Anne Hathaway – “Love and Other Drugs”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
r/u: Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
r/u: Helena Bonham Carter – “The King’s Speech”
BEST SCREENPLAY
“The Social Network”
r/u: “The King’s Speech”
BEST ANIMATED FILM
“Toy Story 3”
r/u: “How to Train Your Dragon”
BEST FOREIGN FILM
“Biutiful”
r/u: “I Am Love”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Social Network”
r/u: “Inception”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” – “Burlesque”
r/u: “I See the Light” – “Tangled”
Updated Oscar Predictions
What with everything that has happened in the last month in regards to the critics, the Globes and the SAGs, I figure that it’s time to do a full update on my Oscar predictions. Not a lot has shifted in the technical cateogories, except that “The Social Network” is looking more and more like a sure thing for a Best Original Score nomination. I’ve also taken “The King’s Speech” out of Best Editing. If it does miss that nomination, and somehow goes on to win Best Picture, it will be the first film in 30 years to win the big one without the support of the editors. Those two awards somehow go hand in hand.
As far as the acting categories go, Best Actor seems pretty much locked. Jesse Eisenberg has carved his name in stone and is just as solid as the top two contenders. There’s an outside chance that Ryan Gosling might break in and knock out one of the two veterans, but becoming less and less likely. A big question for Best Actress is who will take the place of Hilary Swank, after the odd as hell SAG nomination. I’m still betting on Lesley Manville, and not just because of the NBR stat, but because it’s a truly endearing character. However, much like Gosling, Williams is looming, and I can definitely see her getting a nomination, much like Laura Linney did for “The Savages” in 2007, and she didn’t even have the Golden Globe nod.
I think its safe to say that Justin Timberlake has fallen out of the running, especially since Andrew Garfield is no longer a lock. I refuse to predict Jeremy Renner until there’s no hope left. Never thought I’d find myself rooting against one of my favorite performers. My how the tables turn. I am however, hoping that the Academy will remain as bold as the SAG and nominate John Hawkes, but its a crap shoot. In Best Supporting Actress, it’s pretty solid that both of “The Fighter”‘s ladies will be making it in, though Leo definitely has the edge. Mila Kunis and Jacki Weaver will fight it out for the last slot.
One thing that I think is safe to say is that “The Fighter” is now as solid a contender as it has ever been. We shall see how it fares with the rest of the guilds, but from the SAGs and Globes, alone, it has gained even more ground than “Black Swan.”
Read all of my predictions after the jump:
BEST PICTURE
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Toy Story 3
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. The Fighter
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. 127 Hours
9. True Grit
10. Winter’s Bone
Alt 1: The Town
Alt 2: Another Year
Best Original Song Contenders
I’ve been waiting for this to show up for a while. At long last, the AMPAS have released the official list of songs that are eligible to compete for the Best Original Song Oscar. It’s nearly impossible to predict this award unless you have a list to choose from.
Here is the full list:
* “Alice” from “Alice in Wonderland”
* “Forever One Love” from “Black Tulip”
* “Freedom Song” from “Black Tulip”
* “Bound to You” from “Burlesque”
* “Welcome to Burlesque” from “Burlesque”
* “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
* “There’s a Place for Us” from “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader”
* “Coming Home” from “Country Strong”
* “Me and Tennessee” from “Country Strong”
* “Despicable Me” from “Despicable Me”
* “Prettiest Girls” from “Despicable Me”
* “Dear Laughing Doubters” from “Dinner for Schmucks”
* “Better Days” from “Eat Pray Love”
* “If You Run” from “Going the Distance”
* “Darkness before the Dawn” from “Holy Rollers”
* “Sticks & Stones” from “How to Train Your Dragon”
* “Le Gris” from “Idiots and Angels”
* “Chanson Illusionist” from “The Illusionist”
* “Never Say Never” from “The Karate Kid”
* “To the Sky” from “Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole”
* “What If” from “Letters to Juliet”
* “Life during Wartime” from “Life during Wartime”
* “Made in Dagenham” from “Made in Dagenham”
* “Little One” from “Mother and Child”
* “Be the One” from “The Next Three Days”
* “If I Rise” from “127 Hours”
* “When You See Forever” from “The Perfect Game”
* “I Remain” from “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time”
* “Dream Big” from “Pure Country 2: The Gift”
* “How I Love You” from “Ramona and Beezus”
* “Darling I Do” from “Shrek Forever After”
* “Noka Oi” from “Six Days in Paradise”
* “This Is a Low” from “Tamara Drewe”
* “I See the Light” from “Tangled”
* “Rise” from “3 Billion and Counting”
* “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”
* “Eclipse: All Yours” from “The Twilight Saga: Eclipse”
* “Nothing” from “Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too”
* “A Better Life” from “Unbeaten”
* “Shine” from “Waiting for ‘Superman’”
* “The Reasons Why” from “Wretches & Jabberers”
After briefly viewing this list, I believe that my rough predictions would look something like this:
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong”
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours”
“I See the Light” from “Tangled”
“Shine” from “Waiting for ‘Superman’”
“Shine” is probably the most recognizable and publicized song on this list, so I would count it in. Plus, it has the whole cause tie-in which helped out “I Need to Wake Up” win for Guggenheim’s las big film “An Inconvenient Truth.” I would also go with “I See the Light,” as well as “If I Rise” due to the amount of pull that I’m sure Alan Menken and A.R. Rahman still have with the academy. Finally, I would pick at least one song from both “Burlesque” and “Country Strong,” because, well, they’re musicals.
Mike Fleming reports on the exact rules and regulations of how the songs are chosen at Deadline.com. Leave your thoughts or predictions, below, if you life.
The Golden Globes: My Thoughts
Well, my first reaction to the Golden Globes was, of course, uproarious laughter. HFPA, you crazy bastards, you. Every year, when I make my predictions out, I actually imagine that they will make rational decisions, decisions actually catered to how good a film is rather than how many celebrities they can kiss ass to and cram onto a red carpet. Then, every year, I have to give a little giggle and remember who I’m dealing with.
Let’s actually go through the good, first, because believe it or not, there is some. The HFPA actually showed more love for “The Social Network” than I thought that they would. 6 nominations, tying the second largest amount for the year, including what I believe to be an Oscar nomination-sealing nod to Jesse Eisenberg, as well as much deserved recognition to Trent Reznor and Atticus Finch for their unorthodox and compelling score. I do believe that “The King’s Speech” will take down this particular Best Picture award, due to the HFPA’s penchant for grandiose over edgy (“The Aviator” over “Million Dollar Baby,” which I was actually happy about, “Atonement” over “No Country for Old Men,” “Avatar” over “The Hurt Locker”). However, “Social”‘s strong showing proves that it is definitely in it for the longterm win.
Some other things that I liked: “Inception” pulling in such a great reception. After the HFPA’s proverbial snub of “The Dark Knight,” I expecting the Christopher Nolan hate to filter into this film’s chances, as well. I was pleasantly surprised. The film pulled in 4 nominations. Also, it was very nice to see noms for both Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams. I have not yet seen the film so I can’t say that I’m pleased because they impressed me, but just that the Globes had enough hootspa to nominated such a dark and gritty film, especially with all of its MPAA controversey. Plus, Ryan Gosling is one of the most impressive young performers working in the game, today.
All right, let’s move on to the laughable. The Drama section was fine, if not predictable. The Musical/Comedy section is a travesty. I will refrain from completely ripping apart their nominations for “Burlesque” and “The Tourist” for I have not seen them. However, when a film receives a Metacritic score of 48 as in “Burlesque,” or much less a 37 that “The Tourist” received, there is something to say about the finickiness of nominating said films for the distinction of Best Picture of the Year. Even the Globes would stoop that low for a chance to get Johnny Depp, Angelina Jolie and Cher all at their swanky party. I think that I’m actually going to see at least one of those films just to relish in my ridicule of them.
Here’s a few more things grinding my gears: Michael Douglas’ last ditch nomination for “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.” I know that the man is inching close to death, but couldn’t they have at least given him a goodbye nom for something like “Solitary Man,” something he might be proud to be remembered for? The snub of Sally Hawkins, to make room for Angelina Jolie, no less, is an insult. I’m sure it was also necessary to make sure Johnny Depp had two nominations instead of recognizing some of the amazing work done by Jim Carrey in “I Love You Phillip Morris?” And the big finale…..not a single nomination for “True Grit.” Tell me that they just didn’t see it and not that they would literally hand a complete snub to it on purpose.
Some day, I hope that the Golden Globes are fully recognized for the sham that they are, or maybe they’ll just shape up. Who knows? Until then, I will try to forget that these ever happened.
68th Annual Golden Globe Nominations
Well, here they are. Some good things and bad things. It appears that “The King’s Speech” leads with 7, while “The Social Network” and “The Fighter” in a close second with 6.
More later, but I leave you with this. Leave it to the HFPA to nominate one of the worst-reviewed and worst received films of the year for 3 awards including Best Picture for the sole reason that it has Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie in it. I don’t know if it’s better to use that excuse, or to just say they have bad taste. Starfuckers, we salute you.
Best Picture, Drama
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Best Picture, Comedy/Musical
Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The Kids Are All Right
Red
The Tourist
Best Director
David Fincher, The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Best Actor, Drama
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Best Actress, Drama
Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs
Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Johnny Depp, The Tourist
Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version
Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
Angelina Jolie, The Tourist
Emma Stone, Easy A
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Best Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
Best Original Score
Alexander Desplot – The King’s Speech
Danny Elfman – Alice in Wonderalnd
A.R. Robin – 127 Hours
Trent Reznor – The Social Network
Hans Zimmer – Inception
Best Original Song
“You Haven’t Seen The Last of Me,” Burlesque
“Bound to you,” Burlesque
“Coming Home,” Country Strong
“I See The Light,” Tangled
“There’s a Place For Us,” Voyage of the Dawn Treader
Best Animated Film
Tangled
Toy Story 3
How To Train Your Dragon
Despicable Me
The Illusionist
Best Foreign-Language Film
I Am Love
Biutiful
The Concert
The Edge
In a Better World