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My FINAL Oscar Predictions – 1/22
This is it. Last call before closing. Nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards will be announced this Tuesday, January 25th, at 7:30am CST (and you can bet I’ll be up hours before then, pumping myself up). For sure, there is a science behind the whole prediction game. A combination of elements, including what’s been happening with the critics groups awards, the different guild nominations and, in some cases, the film’s box office success. Along with that, there’s likability in each contender, how many times they’ve previously been nominated and won, a pseudo-mathematic question of their overall “due” status. Dozens of factors take shape in hugely methodic process, and this is all before anyone even takes into effect how good each contender is. Crazy, huh?
Well, a year-long process has now come to a close, and it’s time for me to nut up and offer my final predictions. The Best Picture line-up is basically down to 11 contenders, with two films vying for the final slot. It’s possible that either “Shutter Island” or “The Ghost Writer” could stage a massive coup and fight their way in their, but I doubt it. Some predictions that I’m sticking my neck out on? I’m still holding on to my convictions (and hopes) that the incredible John Hawkes can beat out Jeremy Renner in the Best Supporting Actor category. I’m also holding out hope that both of “Blue Valentine”‘s stars will outdo their older competition for leading notices. I’m also really hoping that “Exit Through the Gift Shop” can actually tickle the documentary branch’s funny bone (a feat not easily accomplished). Finally, here’s to “Winter’s Bone” edging out “The Town” for Best Picture. In fact, I’m predicting an across-the-board snub of the film. It’s only a slightly above action feature that has no business in the top ten. I have a strong feeling, though, that it will be this year’s “Blind Side.”
Without further adieu, here are the nominees (and once again, these are ranked in order of their chance of getting nominated, not winning):
BEST PICTURE
1. “The Social Network”
2. “The King’s Speech”
3. “The Fighter”
4. “Black Swan”
5. “Inception”
6. “Toy Story 3”
7. “True Grit”
8. “The Kids Are All Right”
9. “127 Hours”
10. “Winter’s Bone”
Alt 1: “The Town”
Alt 2: “Shutter Island”
Click READ MORE to see the rest.
The Shape of Things and Those to Come
We’re now down to just over a month left until cinema’s biggest night, the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, and only three days left till the nominations are released. It’s a very exciting time for movies and an equally exciting time for The Edge of the Frame. I’ve got a lot of great stuff planned for the coming weeks.
First off, now that all of the guild nominations are complete, I will try to be as prompt as possible at announcing the winners as they are awarded. First off will be the Producers Guild which is holding its ceremony tonight. Many believe that, with the DGA and WGA all but locked up, the Producers are the last big hurdle that “The Social Network” needs to vanquish before it can be considered a virtual lock for the Best Picture Oscar. Or, put another way, if “The King’s Speech,” “Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “Inception,” or even “Toy Story 3” wants to put up any kind of a fight, this should be their last stand. I mean these are producers we’re talking about, so massive box office success may be taken into account here. And all of the above-mentioned films have much more exciting box office turn-ins than the frontrunner (not that “TSN” fared badly, bringing in just shy of $100 million off of a $40 million dollar budget). As far as money goes, my own is still squarely behind David Fincher’s masterpiece. It doesn’t help having one of Hollywood’s most loved and successful producers behind the curtain, in the form of Scott Rudin.
On top of the guilds, I’m going to attempt to not wait until the last possible moment to announce my predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. I’m hoping that by tomorrow evening, I will be ready for my final guess. While, it’s true, there’s virtually nothing between today and Tuesday morning that could change what’s in the envelopes (especially since the AMPAS’ polls closed over a week ago). However, it’s all about the vibe, and for that, I have to take my time.
Along with continuing awards coverage, I am also drafting a few feature articles. I’m currently in progress on my next addition to The Lists series, focusing on the greatest addicts in movie history. Meanwhile, I’m also planning two articles in support of “The Social Network.” One, countering arguments that the film is overrated due to its historic inaccuracies and possibly another that defends Jesse Eisenberg’s performance as one of the year’s best, if not the best of the best.
You know, I take a lot of guff from people who say that I have a huge bias for the Facebook film; that this site is simply all “Social Network” all day long. Well, let’s face it folks. This awards season, let alone the year in cinema has been all “Social Network” all day. As the tagline states, “You don’t get to 500 million friends without making a few enemies.” Well, you don’t get to win 30 out of 33 awards for Best Picture of the Year without being a pretty goddamn good movie, so I really don’t think I’m alone on this one.
Finally, as the 2010 film season comes to a close, it’s about time I conclude my critical coverage of the season. Soon, I will be rolling out my “Best of the Year” series. There are still four more films that I absolutely must see before I feel comfortable posting a valid list. David Michod’s “Animal Kingdom” is in my Blu ray player waiting for me when I get home from work, today. I’ve scheduled a screening of Mike Leigh’s “Another Year” tomorrow afternoon. I should have some time to check out Peter Weir’s “The Way Back later this week, and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s “Biutiful” opens in Chicago on the 28th. On that time table, I should be able to assemble my Top Ten List by February 1st. I may just have time to sneak “Repo Men,” “Mother and Child,” “The Virginity Hit” and “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” into consideration, pending on how fast I can work my way through my Netflix DVD queue.
Shortly after I post my Top Ten of the Year, I will begin preparing the nominations for the Conroy Film Awards, or “The Connies” for a certain few who have chosen to refer to them that way. These are my own personal Academy Awards. I believe I have a set of them for every year going back to 1940. They’re tailored with the same nominees as the AMPAS, along with a few other fun categories, including Best Ensemble Cast, Best Heros/Villains, and Best Ending (with no spoilers included, of course).
All in all, it should be a good time. So keep reading, folks, cause the fun is about to begin.
Golden Globes – Postgame
Okay. I will admit that the HFPA really did do all right by me, last night. Overall they made some pretty good decisions, especially in officially solidifying “The Social Network” as the frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar. If “The King’s Speech” can’t win here, I really can’t imagine it winning anywhere.
However, even if the Golden Globes released a list of their Top 100 favorite films, and their list happened to match mine movie per movie, I would still not take up with them. An organization that will accept bribery and star-fucking as good reasons to nominate “Burlesque” or “Alice in Wonderland” as Best Picture of the Year is no friend of mine.
Here is the full list of winners from last night:
BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy)
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Burlesque”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“Red”
“The Tourist”
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
David O. Russell, “The Fighter”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Best Actor (Drama)
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”
Best Actress (Drama)
Halle Berry, “Frankie and Alice”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”
Johnny Depp, “The Tourist”
Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs”
Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”
Angelina Jolie, “The Tourist”
Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”
Emma Stone, “Easy A”
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Michael Douglas, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Best Screenplay
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right”
David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
Best Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful”
“The Concert”
“The Edge”
“I Am Love”
“In a Better World”
Best Animated Feature
“Despicable Me”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Tangled”
“Toy Story 3”
Best Original Score
Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland”
Hans Zimmer, “Inception”
Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
A.R. Rahman, “127 Hours”
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”
Best Original Song
“Bound to You” from “Burlesque”
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
“There’s a Place for Us” from “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader”
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong”
“I See the Light” from “Tangled”
Cecil B. De Mille Award
Robert De Niro
As far as my predictions go, I had a very good night. Some of these weren’t the most difficult awards to predict, but I still amassed a record of 12 out of 14, or 85 percent. That might be the best record that I’ve ever had on this particular award show. If it hadn’t have been Johnny Depp getting screwed by two nomination vote-splitting or an absolute upset like no other in Best Foreign Language Film, I would have had a perfect score.
If you had been within one hundred feet of my apartment at one o’clock in the morning (I had to DVR the show since I was working on set during the airtime), you would have heard a chorus of whoops and hollers at every “Social Network” victory. I was particularly ecstatic upon hearing Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ names being called, for not only was that one of the film’s most difficult nominations to win, but that moment pretty much sealed its Best Picture victory.
The acting victories were literally identical to the BFCA wins, with Firth, Portman, Bale and Leo all going home with awards. In the Musical/Comedy section, Annette Bening made her last stand at putting up a fight against Natalie for the Oscar, but I really don’t think it will be enough (despite Bening getting a full ovation and Portman only a few random stands). Paul Giamatti pulled out a not-so-surprising but really cool win over Johnny Depp and Jake Gyllenhaal.
Obviously, the talk of the night was Ricky Gervais’ absolutely no-holds-barred hosting job which bordered on a Comedy Central Roast. I’ve heard things such as network executives swearing that it will be the end of the comic’s career, but for me, the best part of the show was waiting for what he was going to say next. I mean, come on. When you’re that rich and that famous, there is absolutely no reason not to verbally macerated on national television. I haven’t laughed as hard in a long time as when Ricky referred to Bruce Willis as Ashton Kutcher’s dad.
The best part of the night, and ironic for me, since I really don’t care much about the television portion of the awards, was Chris Colfer’s win for “Glee.” Sometimes you see a performer put on their phony “I never would have imagined” face. You could tell that this kid had expected hell to freeze over and then thaw again before he would win this award. The shock, awe and pure joy in his face was just a memorable sight. And while I really don’t enjoy “Glee” so much, both Colfer and Jane Lynch’s performances are far and away the only things that keep it afloat in my attention span. Congrats to both of them.
Well, the critics have officially had their say. All that’s left are those in the industry, and I can only hope that they greet “The Social Network” with as much warmth and gratitude as their judges have. And since it has now received nominations, at least, from every single Hollywood guild, the horizon is looking pretty damned bright.
Golden Globe Predictions
Well, it’s that time of the year, and that time happens to be my least favorite. As much as I love and anticipate the Oscars, I absolutely loathe the Golden Globes. I feel that they are kind of a travesty to cinema and the entire awards tradition. If there was ever a group that completely sold out to bribery, star-fucking and just straight-up bad taste, it would be the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. That being said, they are still the second most publicized awards presentation of the year and I must give them some kind of credence.
If “The Social Network”‘s never-ending streak of victories was to falter at all during the season, I would hope it to be here. That way, I can chalk it up with the rest of the Globes’ terrible decisions over the years. If it wins, all the better for it. To be honest, I would almost feel more comfortable with it losing the HFPA’s Best Picture. In the last six years, the award for Best Picture has only criss-crossed between Oscar and Globe once, and that was for “Slumdog Millionaire.” Here’s a rough breakdown of the HFPA’s comparison to the Academy:
AMPAS
2009: “The Hurt Locker”
2008: “Slumdog Millionaire”
2007: “No Country for Old Men”
2006: “The Departed”
2005: “Crash”
2004: “Million Dollar Baby”
HFPA
2009: “Avatar”
2008: “Slumdog Millionaire”
2007: “Atonement”
2006: “Babel”
2005: “Brokeback Mountain”
2004: “The Aviator”
Outside of “Brokeback Mountain” and “The Aviator,” I think the Academy has picked the better film every year since then. Therefore, I almost take “The Social Network” losing Best Picture tomorrow night to be a compliment, as long as it goes on to win the Oscar.
If there was a film that could curry enough favor to take down “The Social Network,” it will probably be “The King’s Speech.” Aside from having not that great taste, the Globes also have a penchant for picking films with a little more international flair. At least, they seem to not go for films with thoroughly American themes, in the case of “The Departed,” “No Country for Old Men” and “The Hurt Locker.” I would definitely put “The Social Network” into this category.
However, I will not lose faith. Maybe, for once, the Globes will shock me with brilliance and “The Social Network” will edge out a victory. For sure, I cannot imagine any other film winning for Director or Screenplay, and if it can take down those two, why not the big one?
Here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
“The Social Network”
r/u: “The King’s Speech”
BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY
“The Kids Are All Right”
r/u: “Alice in Wonderland”
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher – “The Social Network”
r/u: Darren Aronofsky – “Black Swan”
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
r/u: James Franco – “127 Hours”
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
r/u: Nicole Kidman – “Rabbit Hole”
BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL/COMEDY (the most wide-open category; could really be anyone)
Johnny Depp – “Alice in Wonderland”
r/u: Paul Giamatti – “Barney’s Version”
BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL/COMEDY
Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
r/u: Anne Hathaway – “Love and Other Drugs”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
r/u: Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
r/u: Helena Bonham Carter – “The King’s Speech”
BEST SCREENPLAY
“The Social Network”
r/u: “The King’s Speech”
BEST ANIMATED FILM
“Toy Story 3”
r/u: “How to Train Your Dragon”
BEST FOREIGN FILM
“Biutiful”
r/u: “I Am Love”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“The Social Network”
r/u: “Inception”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” – “Burlesque”
r/u: “I See the Light” – “Tangled”
Critics Choice Awards – Postgame
Damn it, David Fincher, why weren’t you at the Critics Choice Awards last night? I really want to know. If you tell me that you’re shooting “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” fine. Yet, if you tell me that it’s because you’re annoyed with the awards season coverage, grow up. The kind of awards sweep that you are experiencing right now, you probably won’t experience again for a long time, if ever again. You should appreciate it while you have it.
All right, I’m done with my personalized whine to “The Social Network”‘s director. Let’s move on to the awards themselves. The three films that definitely had the biggest nights were “The Social Network,” “The Fighter” and “Inception.” It was kind of a mute point that after winning 28 out of 31 (90 percent) of all of this year’s critics awards, it would have been kind of unlikely for “The Social Network” to lose the Critics Choice Award for Best Picture. The film also racked up awards for Director, Adapted Screenplay and Original Score.
“The Fighter” had the biggest night in regards to acting honors, as well it should have. Both Christian Bale and Melissa Leo took home their respective supporting awards, while the entire cast was given the Best Ensemble Cast Award. Meanwhile, “Inception” quite literally swept the technical categories. The film picked up awards for Best Action Film, Cinematography, Editing, Art Direction, Sound and Visual Effects. Certainly a good night for Christopher Nolan and his collaborative team.
The lead acting awards went to Colin Firth and Natalie Portman, who can now probably be considered locks for Oscar. Natalie Portman, I am thrilled about, being that she may even win my own personal award for Best Lead Actress. Yet, Colin Firth, I’m a bit disappointed about. The performance was great, but really nothing that I would consider sweep-worthy. I’d much rather have seen him win last year for “A Single Man,” which, in my opinion, was the best male performance of the year and a career-best for the actor.
Overall, there were more things about the awards that I liked then disliked. The highlights were obviously all of “The Social Network”‘s accolades. Let the train keep on chugging. I also could not be more thrilled about both Melissa Leo and Christian Bale. Phenomenal work that deserves recognition. Please let this also be a good sign that “Inception” might possibly be able to beat out “Alice in Wonderland” for Art Direction at the Oscars. That would make me ever so delighted.
Of all the things that I didn’t like, one was definitely a whopper. I simply cannot account for “Waiting for Superman”‘s victory in Best Documentary. I’ve heard the term “Year of the Doc” thrown around over the years, but I truly believe it to be a reality for the current annual. There is a wealth of incredible documentaries to choose from this awards season, and this is what they go with. “Superman” is a good film, but it is not a phenomenal film. There are too many holes in its argument and it just doesn’t have enough of an edge. With competition like “Inside Job,” “Restrepo” and “Exit Through the Gift Shop,” I have no idea how this film won, but I’m fairly sure that we can thank Oprah for it.
Here’s a full list of the BFCA winners:
Best Picture: “The Social Network”
Best Director: David Fincher – “The Social Network”
Best Actor: Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Best Young Actress: Hailee Steinfeld – “True Grit”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Best Ensemble: “The Fighter”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
Best Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Best Documentary Feature: “Waiting for Superman”
Best Animation: “Toy Story 3”
Best Comedy: “Easy A”
Best Picture Made for TV: “The Pacific”
Best Action Movie: “Inception”
Best Cinematography: “Inception”
Best Editing: “Inception”
Best Art Direction: “Inception”
Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
Best Sound: “Inception”
Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Song: If I Rise – “127 Hours”
Best Score: “The Social Network”
As far as my predictions go, I was correct on 18 out of 25 categories. That’s about a 72 percent ratio, which I’ll take. I don’t think anyone could have predicted how well “Inception” was going to fare with the technical awards.
That’s it for the Critics Choice Awards. You can expect my predictions for the Golden Globes to come very shortly.
Critics Choice Awards – My Predictions
So this weekend is chock-full of awards shows, with the Critics Choice Awards (voted on by the BFCA) premiering Friday night and the Golden Globes on Sunday. I’ll be bringing my predictions for the HFPA (which are always quite a question mark, even in a race like this one) at some point this weekend, but I thought I’d give a little preview of the Critics Choice tonight.
Ultimately, this is a no-brainer. Nearly every critic in the country and their mothers…hell their whole damn extended families have unanimously praised “The Social Network” as the best film of the year. The Golden Globes may pull a rabbit out of their ass and award either “The King’s Speech” or “Black Swan,” but that won’t pull much weight with the Oscars. Since the HFPA and the Academy have only made the same decision once in the last six years, it’s almost bad luck for a film to win at Golden Globes.
Here are my predictions for the Critics Choice Awards:
Best Picture
R/U: “Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
WINNER: “The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
Best Director
R/U: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”
WINNER: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, “True Grit”
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
R/U: Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
WINNER: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Best Actress
R/U: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
WINNER: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Noomi Rapace, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Best Supporting Actor
WINNER: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Sam Rockwell, “Conviction”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
R/U: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”
WINNER: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
R/U: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Best Young Actor/Actress
Elle Fanning, “Somewhere”
WINNER: Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Chloe Grace Moretz, “Let Me In”
Chloe Grace Moretz, “Kick-Ass”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “Let Me In”
R/U: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Best Acting Ensemble
WINNER: “The Fighter”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
R/U: “The Social Network”
“The Town”
Best Original Screenplay
“Another Year”
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
R/U: “The Kids Are All Right”
WINNER: “The King’s Speech”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“127 Hours”
WINNER: “The Social Network”
“The Town”
R/U: “Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
Best Art Direction
R/U: “Alice in Wonderland”
“Black Swan”
WINNER: “Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“True Grit”
Best Cinematography
R/U: “Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
WINNER: “True Grit”
Best Costume Design
WINNER: “Alice in Wonderland”
“Black Swan”
R/U: “The King’s Speech”
“True Grit”
Best Film Editing
“Black Swan”
R/U: “Inception”
“127 Hours”
WINNER: “The Social Network”
Best Makeup
R/U: “Alice in Wonderland”
WINNER: “Black Swan”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”
“True Grit”
Best Score
“Black Swan”
R/U: “Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
WINNER: “The Social Network”
“True Grit”
Best Song
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque”
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours”
R/U: “I See the Light” from “Tangled”
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3″
WINNER: “Shine” from “Waiting for Superman”
Best Sound
“Black Swan”
WINNER: “Inception”
“127 Hours”
R/U: “The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3″
Best Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”
WINNER: “Inception”
R/U: “TRON Legacy”
Best Animated Feature
“Despicable Me”
R/U: “How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Tangled”
WINNER: “Toy Story 3″
Best Action Movie
WINNER: “Inception”
“Kick-Ass”
“Red”
R/U: “The Town”
“Unstoppable”
Best Comedy
“Cyrus”
“Date Night”
WINNER: “Easy A”
“Get Him to the Greek”
R/U: “I Love You Phillip Morris”
“The Other Guys”
Best Foreign Language Film
R/U: “Biutiful”
“I Am Love”
WINNER: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Best Documentary Feature
R/U: “Exit Through the Gift Shop”
WINNER: “Inside Job”
“Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work”
“Restrepo”
“The Tillman Story”
“Waiting for Superman”
Best Picture Made for Television
R/U: “The Pacific”
WINNER: “Temple Grandin”
“You Don’t Know Jack”
The Cinematographers Guild Announces Nominees
Yet more guild nominations have been released. I’m a little late to report this one, but it’s definitely worth reporting. This is certainly one of the more exciting branches of the film industry: the guys who make the film look good, gorgeous even, in the case of some of these films. While the American Society of Cinematographers is widely considered to be a labor union, it is not. Instead, it is a prestigious society of DPs made up of about 350 individuals and membership is by invitation only. Their awards have been handed down for 25 years, recent winners including Christian Berger for “The White Ribbon,” Anthony Dod Mantle for “Slumdog Millionaire,” Robert Elswit for “There Will Be Blood” and Emmanuel Lubezki for “Children of Men.”
This year, the ASC’s nominations seem a little bit more geared towards Best Picture hopefuls then films that are very much driven by camera and lighting. Yet, the choices are still stellar, for the most part.
Here are the nominees:
“Black Swan” (Matthew Libatique)
“Inception” (Wally Pfister)
“The King’s Speech” (Danny Cohen)
“The Social Network” (Jeff Cronenweth)
“True Grit” (Roger Deakins)
It’s certainly no surprise to see veterans like Wally Pfister and the almighty Roger Deakins here. Considering the amount of critical attention that “Black Swan” has been getting, it was certainly a guaranteed spot on this list. The two moderate surprises are “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network.”
Now, in regard to Jeff Cronenweth’s work on “The Social Network,” I emphasize that this is a surprise, not a disappointment. This is some of the most beautiful, understated and, most of all, under-appreciated cinematography of the year. Congratulations at the same time to the RED One Camera for truly advancing the art of digital cinematography. I’m fairly certain that this is the first film shot on the RED to be nominated for an ASC award. Hopefully, soon, it will be the first of its kind to be nominated for an Oscar.
“The King’s Speech,” on the other hand, I can take or leave. The quality of soft lighting makes the film look quite pretty and the one foggy exterior scene definitely looked gorgeous. However, there are certain shots used through the course of the film that either completely eliminate nose room or use spatially abhorrent angles. Obviously these were conscious choices by the director and DP, however, they put off the idea that the filmmakers were simply trying too hard. The ASC could have done a lot better by nominating either “127 Hours” for it’s stellar use of close-ups or “Shutter Island” for it’s gorgeous contrasty lighting.
For the win, one would think that Deakins is a shoo-in. However, unlike the Academy, the ASC has already awarded Roger on two different occasions (“The Shawshank Redemption” and “The Man Who Wasn’t There”). On top of that, he’s already receiving their 2011 Lifetime Achievement award, so I’m not sure that they’ll be that willing to award him twice in one night. Therefore, I would bank on Matthew Libateque taking this down due to the enormous amount of praise that his work has already garnered for this film.
Academy Narrows Make-Up Branch to 7
I’ve been waiting for this announcement and really couldn’t be more disappointed. Like several other categories, the Make-Up branch of the Oscars creates a shortlist of contenders before the actual nominees are decided. That list is made up of seven films.
Here’s the selection of films:
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Barney’s Version”
“The Fighter”
“Jonah Hex”
“True Grit”
“The Way Back”
“The Wolfman”
In all honesty, these are a joke. “Alice and Wonderland” and “The Wolfman” were expected, “The Fighter” well deserving a spot for it’s wounds, hairstyles and tattoo cover-up. Yet, the sheer absence of “Black Swan” from the shortlist is a true tragedy. Whether you look at the realistic gore make-up or the exquisite work done for the actual ballet scenes, this is a straight-up snub. Even worse is the exclusion of “127 Hours.”
The Academy make-up branch is either biased against or completely blind to effective gore make-up. They go absolutely apeshit for prosthetics and aging. I mean films like “The Wolfman” and “Alice in Wonderland” obviously require an immense amount of work. However, creating a scenario in which a man cuts off his own arm and actually make that completely believable is fully worthy of equal recognition. Always, gore make-up is overlooked. “No Country for Old Men,” “Moon,” “District 9″ and “A History of Violence” all have incredible wound make-up and none of them even received nominations.
My girlfriend is a special effects make-up artist and every year she is infuriated by these nominations and I’m beginning to understand why.
If the Oscars Were Like the NFL….
Kris Tapley at In Contention put me on to this and it is kind of fun. Movieline has put together a comparison between NFL teams headed towards the Super Bowl and movies competing for the Oscars. Even if the playoffs have already started and according to this, Adam Sandler’s “Grown Ups” is a shu-in for a Best Picture nomination, this is still a cool little game. I really think the tie-ins justified with “The Social Network” and “Black Swan” and their equivalent teams.
When going by this chart, I would predict “The Social Network” and “The Fighter” in the Super Bowl, which in perspective, may not be too far from the reality of the Oscars. My own home team of the Bears is being compared to “The King’s Speech.” I could only wish that I felt are chances were still that good. Either I’m underestimating the Bears or Movieline is grossly underestimating Tom Hooper’s movie.
Check out the full chart at Movieline.
Directors Guild Announces Nominees
Finally, the big daddy of the guilds has announced its nominees. This is one of the most prestigious awards in the film industry. Some directors actually see it as a better form of recognition than the Oscar. It is also a very accurate predictor of who will win the eventual Best Director Oscar. The DGA and the Oscar have lined up in this category 54 of the last 62 years since the award’s beginning. It’s also worth noting that all of these films are pretty much guaranteed a Best Picture nomination. Back when there were five nominees, the DGA used to match Best Picture better than they matched the Best Director contenders.
Here is the list of nominees:
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film
Darren Aronofsky – “Black Swan”
David O. Russell – “The Fighter”
Christopher Nolan – “Inception”
Tom Hooper – “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher – “The Social Network”
It’s worth noting that even though I did not publish them, these were my exact predictions. Fincher, Aronofsky and Nolan were all pretty much locks for this nomination. Some expected Tom Hooper to miss here based on his lack of experience and the film being not so much a director’s piece, but rather a writing and acting showcase. But when a film chugs along as well as “The King’s Speech,” there was no reason to believe that he would be absent.
The individual most profiting from this nomination is definitely David O’Russell. Once considered a loose cannon, or even a lunatic in some circles, O’Russell is now DGA nominee and his film locked for a Best Picture nomination, perhaps even a contender for the win. Who did O’Russell oust? The answer is the Coen Brothers, who many were expected to come away with their third nomination (or at least Joel’s third and Ethan’s second, though anyone who’s anyone knows that these two have always been a team even both their names aren’t on the credit).
So will this be the Best Director line-up at the Oscars? It’s hard to say, but I would say: yes. The Coens may continue to gain traction. Their film was released near the end of the DGA balloting so it’s possible some voters did not see it. It’s also very possible that the Academy might try and continue last year’s legacy and nominate one of this year’s talented female directors like Lisa Cholodenko of “The Kids Are All Right” or Debra Granik of “Winter’s Bone” (Granik being the much more deserving).
Perhaps the most hurt by these nominations is Danny Boyle. Like the Coen Brothers, Boyle just won an Oscar within the last 3 years and isn’t considered as due as others. However, “127 Hours” is hanging onto its Best Picture nomination by a thread. and many are already starting to bump it for movies like “The Town,” “Winter’s Bone” or both. Boyle still has a long shot chance of a Best Director nomination, but his chances are becoming quite slim.
Oh, and David Fincher has this award IN THE BAG. He’s had it in the bag for a long time now and he really couldn’t be more deserving. A coronation is more accurate than an awarding.
The winners will be announced on January 29th. Stay tuned.
The Edge of the Frame 