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Updated 2013 Oscar Predictions – 12/29

December 30, 2012 Leave a comment

lincoln_oscar_predictions

It’s less than two weeks left until the big morning comes, but with everything that’s happened thus far, I thought it would be a good time to re-assess things. Obviously, “Zero Dark Thirty” has largely positioned itself at the head of the pack and Daniel Day Lewis is lined up for another coronation. However, many of the major categories still seem much more open then normal.

In the next two weeks, the guilds will really start to have their say. Throughout the last decade or so, these union groups nominations have very tight links to the eventual nominations. On the other hand, this year will be a unique one. For the first time, the DGA nominations won’t be announced until after Oscar ballots are due in. Therefore, this year, the DGA, which was always believed to have a large impact on not only Best Director, but the Best Picture category as well. Or perhaps this year will prove that theory wrong, in the event that we see the two organizations line-up without any connection proves that they really do think alike. We shall see.

Here’s my latest round of predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Silver Linings Playbook”
6. “Moonrise Kingdom”
7. “Life of Pi”
8. “Amour”
9. “The Master”
10. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Alt 1: Django Unchained
Alt 2: “Skyfall”

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
3. Ben Affleck – “Argo”
4. Tom Hooper – “Les Miserables”
5. David O’Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Alt 1: Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
Alt 2: Michael Haneke – “Amour”

BEST LEADING ACTOR

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
2. Denzel Washington – “Flight”
3. Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
4. John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
5. Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”

Alt 1: Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
2. Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
3. Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
4. Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
5. Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”

Alt 1: Quevenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 2: Rachel Weisz – “The Deep Blue Sea”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
3. Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. Alan Arkin – “Argo”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”

Alt 1: Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”
Alt 2: Eddie Redmayne – “Les Miserables”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
2. Sally Field – “Lincoln”
3. Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
4. Amy Adams – “The Master”
5. Ann Dowd – “Compliance”

Alt 1: Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Alt 2: Judi Dench – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. “Lincoln”
2. “Argo”
3. “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
5. “Life of Pi”

Alt 1: “The Sessions”
Alt 2: “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “The Master”
3. “Moonrise Kingdom”
4. “Amour”
5. “Looper”

Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Seven Psychopaths”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. “The Gatekeepers”
2. “The Invisible War”
3. “Searching for Sugar Man”
4. “The House I Live In”
5. “Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”

Alt 1: “How to Survive a Plague”
Alt 2: “Bully”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. “Brave”
2. “Frankenweenie”
3. “Wreck It Ralph”
4. “Paranorman”
5. “Rise of the Guardians”

Alt 1: “The Painting”
Alt 2: “Zarafa”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. “Amour”
2. “The Intouchables”
3. “A Royal Affair”
4. “War Witch”
5. “Sister”

Alt 1: “No”
Alt 2: “Kon Tiki”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Master”
3. “Skyfall”
4. “Lincoln”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”

Alt 1: “Les Miserables”
Alt 2: “Django Unchained”

BEST EDITING

1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Argo”
3. “Lincoln”
4. “Skyfall”
5. “Les Miserables”

Alt 1: “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: “LIfe of Pi”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “The Master”
5. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”

Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “Moonrise Kingdom”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. “Lincoln”
2. “Les Miserables”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “Mirror Mirror”
5. “Django Unchained”

Alt 1: “A Royal Affair”
Alt 2: “Snow White and the Huntsman”

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “The Dark Knight Rises”
4. “The Avengers”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”

Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Life of Pi”

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1. “Skyfall”
2. “The Dark Knight Rises”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Django Unchained”

Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Prometheus”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”

Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “John Carter”

BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS

1. “Lincoln”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “Les Miserables”

Alt 1: “Looper”
Alt 2: “Men in Black 3”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Anna Karenina”
5. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Alt 1: “The Master”
Alt 2: “Skyfall”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Skyfall” – “Skyfall”
2. “Suddenly” – “Les Miserables”
3. “Learn Me Right” – “Brave”
4. “Still Alive” – “Paul Williams Still Alive”
5. “Ancora Qui” – “Django Unchained”

Alt 1: “From Here to the Moon and Back” – “Joyful Noise”
Alt 2: “Still Dream” – “Rise of the Guardians”

 

NOMINATIONS TALLY

12 – “Lincoln”
11 – “Les Miserables”
7 – “The Master”
7 – “Zero Dark Thirty”
6 – “Argo”
5 – “Life of Pi”
5 – “Silver Linings Playbook”
5 – “Skyfall”
4 – “Amour”
4 – “Django Unchained”
3 – “Anna Karenina”
3 – “The Avengers”
3 – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
3 – “The Dark Knight Rises”
3 – “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
2 – “Brave”
2 – “Moonrise Kingdom”
2 – “The Sessions”

2013 Oscar Predictions: “Just when I thought I was out…”

November 26, 2012 Leave a comment

“…they pull me back in.”  That’s right folks. It has now been nearly nine months since my last official post on The Edge of the Frame and I am severely out of practice. The close of last year’s Oscar season ironically coincided with my being hired into full time employment. Spending nine hours a day composing upwards of seventy-five emails and compiling online data have made coming home and getting behind a computer screen a not-so-welcoming scenario. A couple of hours of  “The X-Files” on Netflix or “The Sopranos” on DVD have become a much more viable way to close out an evening. All of this partnered with a summer of fantasy baseball and my engagement to the woman I love have left comparably little time for my beloved little website.

However, as it turns out, old habits die hard. I’ve been watching the Oscars religiously for fifteen years and been dipping my toe into prognostication for the last seven. There’s no way I can sit this one out. There’s a lot of work to be done. Working full time has more or less hindered my rate of viewing new releases. I’ve got a schedule of about 36 films to see, both on Netflix and in theaters, over the next three months. However, with the first of the critics’ awards just around the corner, things are about to get very busy. Even before everything is seen and done, it’s about time that I offer a bit of perspective on how this year’s race is going to play out.

Some of the year’s biggest contenders have retained their position at the head of the race (“Les Miserables,” “Lincoln,”), practically since they were originally announced. Others have taken a hefty fall from grace (“The Master,” “The Dark Knight Rises”). A few projects have sprung up from out of the blue to become bonafide Best Picture threats (“The Silver Linings Playbook,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,”), while a couple that have barely been seen at all remain a mystery to many (“Zero Dark Thirty,” “Django Unchained”).

However, it’s never too early (or too late, in my case) to start putting the pieces together and assembling a picture of how the board will look almost exactly three months to the date. Listed below are my predictions for the 85th Annual Academy Award nominations. They’re ranked by the chances of each film (or individual) getting nominated. Winning does not come into play here. As complicated as it is, sometimes a person could have a lot easier a path getting nominated for an Oscar, then they ever would of winning. Ask Peter O’Toole if you need more info…

Enjoy, and remember that this whole chalkboard might be completely erased and scribbled down again, a month from now:

BEST PICTURE

1. “Argo”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Les Miserables”
4. “Silver Linings Playbook”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”
6. “The Master”
7. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
8. “Moonrise Kingdom”
9. “Life of Pi”
10. “The Sessions”

Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Amour”
Alt 3: “Flight”

Read more…

The 84th Oscars: Aftermath and Postgame Coverage

March 1, 2012 2 comments

As I watched the telecast of Sunday’s awards, going over the mixture of predictably safe choices, three words kept circling through my head, like scrolling text on the side of a blimp: BUSINESS AS USUAL. It’s been known for a while that the French silent film “The Artist” was scheduled to take home many of the top awards including Best Picture and Best Director. However, what was not expected was that the sweep would be split between it and Martin Scorsese’s family film (I feel like my hatred towards it spawns mostly from having to join those four words together), “Hugo,” which matched “The Artist’s” total of five wins. In simplest terms, I’d describe these wins as safe, mundane and boring, but honestly, what else is new? Read more…

The 84th Academy Award Winners

February 26, 2012 Leave a comment

Nothing left to say. Here are the winners as they are announced:

BEST PICTURE: “The Artist”

BEST DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”

BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE: Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”

BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE: Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”

BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE: Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”

BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE: Octavia Spencer – “The Help”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “The Descendants”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “Midnight in Paris”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: “Rango”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: “Undefeated”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “A Separation”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: “Hugo”

BEST EDITING: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

BEST ART DIRECTION: “Hugo”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: “The Artist”

BEST SOUND MIXING: “Hugo”

BEST SOUND EDITING: “Hugo”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: “Hugo”

BEST MAKEUP: “The Iron Lady”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: “The Artist”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM: “Saving Face”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: “The Shore”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore”

Categories: News, Oscars Tags: , , ,

2012 Academy Awards Luncheon

February 8, 2012 Leave a comment

The annual Oscar nominees luncheon is a longstanding tradition. The awards body extends an invitation to every single recipient of a nomination of this year’s event and awards them…well, there is no award. It’s kind of a pat on the back, honor to be nominated type of thing with some free food and a photo-op. All in all, this event really serves no purpose other than placating tradition.

However, as meaningless as this luncheon is, I always get a kick out of this annual photograph. There’s something kind of nostalgic and eye-catching about seeing all of the nominees lined up, middle school yearbook-style. It also gives you the chance to brush up on your “who’s who?” of Hollywood power, including the ones that you don’t regularly see on the screen. There also exists little moments in these things that make me smile. There’s old friends Marty and Spielberg standing side-by-side on the top right. Seventeen-time legend Meryl Streep alongside the up-and-comer Rooney Mara (apparently she doesn’t smile when someone says cheese, and I love her for it) at the top left. Nick Nolte looking like a sunburned Santa Clause and that the guy doing the Gollum impression in the second row.

Enjoy this year’s edition of the “Where’s Waldo?” Oscar spread.

Click the image to resize:

2012 Oscars Winner Predictions – Round One

January 29, 2012 2 comments

Well, there’s no turning back now. There’s no more debating to be done on the Academy Award nominees. No more discussion of who’s too young or too old, too white or too black, too new or two powerful, and no more weighing out each person’s clout within their particular groups of peers. The nominations are in, and it’s a whole new ballgame. Some frontrunners have fallen and others still sit at the top. Yet, I fully believe that barely a single category is the same as it was three days ago.

Instead of just highlighting a few select categories and offering my thoughts, I’m going to go through each award, one by one, and discuss how things have shaped up.

See the full list after the jump:

BEST PICTURE

Despite a couple shifts in the power balance a few days ago, this is an award whose frontrunner hasn’t shifted at all. “Hugo” may have beat it out by one to become the nomination leader (and thus the only competition for the award), but “The Artist” has a massive lead. It will take a whole lot to knock it from the top of the ladder. “The Help,” once considered a possible underdog upset, showed up little support, including a lack of the crucial Best Editing nomination. Meanwhile, “The Descendants” has lost this battle in the guilds. “Hugo” is the only film that really holds any kind of chance, but only in theory.
MY PREDICTION: “The Artist”
SPOILER: “Hugo” Read more…

Academy Narrows Foreign Language Finalists to 9

January 18, 2012 Leave a comment

The good news is that “A Separation” has advanced to the next round. I guess that it’s a little strange that I’m saying that since I won’t have a chance to see it for another week. Yet, when a film receives the kind of unanimous praise that Asghar Farhadi’s feature has, it’s difficult to not just jump the gun and onto the bandwagon.

Yet, even if the AMPAS’ Foreign Language Film branch does one thing right, they always find a way to piss a lot of other people off in doing something wrong. Left off of the Academy’s shortlist are some of the more acclaimed films of the year. “Le Havre” managed to take the FIPRESCI prize at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, but does not manage a spot here. Nor does France’s domestic drama of young love “Declaration of War,” which has been stirring the minds of critics on both sides of the Atlantic. I’m also not sure any foreign film aside from “A Separation” has garnered more buzz than Mexico’s “Miss Bala,” a tale of beauty pageants and organized crime. All of these films I was predicting among the nominees next week, but no more.

So what does that leave us with. Well, “A Separation,” should go without saying, yet, I wouldn’t doubt for a moment the Academy’s likeliness of screwing that one up. Poland’s entry “In Darkness” has also been turning a lot of heads. I would definitely expect “Footnote,” from Israel to get mentioned, having taken the Best Screenplay prize at Cannes. Wim Wenders certainly profits from name recognition when it comes to his dance documentary “Pina.” I have a feeling it will show up either here or in Best Documentary, but not both, as happened with “Waltz with Bashir, a few years back. Which category…I’m not yet certain.

Here are the nine shortlisted films:

“Bullhead” – Belgium
“Footnote” – Israel
“In Darkness” – Poland
“Monsieur Lazhar” – Canada
“Omar Killed Me” – Morocco
“Pina” – Germany
“A Separation” – Iran
“Superclasico” – Denmark
“Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale” – Taiwan

The nominees will be announced alongside the rest of them in 6 days.