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2016 Oscar Predictions

February 28, 2016 Leave a comment

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Great year for film. My own picks for the 6th Annual Edgy Awards will commence later this week. Meanwhile, here are my predictions for that other awards show.

I’ve never understood not waiting until the last minute. I soak up every final thought. Last year, I really went all out with the notion of using my heart instead of my head. I crashed and burned, pulling in one of my worst percentages in a decade. This year, I’m all business. Happy Oscars…

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BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR

WILL WIN: “The Revenant”
MIGHT WIN: “Spotlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Inside Out”

BEST DIRECTOR

WILL WIN: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – “The Revenant”
MIGHT WIN: George Miller – “Mad Max: Fury Road”
SHOULD BE HERE: Denis Villneuve – “Sicario”

BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Revenant”
MIGHT WIN: Bryan Cranston – “Trumbo”
SHOULD BE HERE: Johnny Depp – “Black Mass”

BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Brie Larson – “Room”
MIGHT WIN: Saoirse Ronan – “Brooklyn”
SHOULD BE HERE: Carey Mulligan – “Suffragette”

BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: Sylvester Stallone – “Creed”
MIGHT WIN: Mark Ruffalo – “Spotlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: Benicio Del Toro – “Sicario”

BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: Alicia Vikander – “The Danish Girl
MIGHT WIN: Rooney Mara – “Carol”
SHOULD BE HERE: Mya Taylor – “Tangerine”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “Spotlight”
MIGHT WIN: “Inside Out”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Sicario”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “The Big Short”
MIGHT WIN: “Room”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Steve Jobs”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

WILL WIN: “Son of Saul”
MIGHT WIN: “Mustang”
SHOULD BE HERE: “N/A”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN: “Amy”
MIGHT WIN: “Cartel Land”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WILL WIN: “Inside Out”
MIGHT WIN: “Anomalisa”
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN: “The Revenant”
MIGHT WIN: “Sicario”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Son of Saul”

BEST EDITING

WILL WIN: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
MIGHT WIN: “The Big Short”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Amy”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
MIGHT WIN: “The Revenant”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Crimson Peak”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
MIGHT WIN: “The Danish Girl”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Brooklyn”

BEST SOUND MIXING

WILL WIN: “”Mad Max: Fury Road”
MIGHT WIN: “The Revenant”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Love & Mercy”

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

WILL WIN: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
MIGHT WIN: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Inside Out”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
MIGHT WIN: “The Revenant”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jurassic World”

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

WILL WIN: “Mad Max: Fury Road”
MIGHT WIN: “The Revenant”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Black Mass”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

WILL WIN: “The Hateful Eight”
MIGHT WIN: “Carol”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WILL WIN: “Till It Happens to You” from “The Hunting Ground”
MIGHT WIN: “Simple Song 3” from “Youth”
SHOULD BE HERE: “One Kind of Love” from “Love and Mercy”

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Ave Maria”
MIGHT WIN: “Stutterer”
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Sanjay’s Super Team”
MIGHT WIN: “Bear Story”
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

WILL WIN: “Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah”
MIGHT WIN: “Body Team 12”
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A

2015 Oscar Predix or The Inevitable End of the Precedent

February 22, 2015 Leave a comment

OSCARS 2015 The Oscars are down to minutes away and I was unbearably close to not even posting my predictions, and not just because I expect to do terrible in my guesses. There’s a number of reasons that predicting this year’s big night just seems a mute point and it has been a growing fundamental for the last couple of years. That precedent is, well, the end of all precedents.

Outside of gut instinct and sticking a wet finger up to feel which way the wind is blowing, the strongest aid in predicting the Oscars is looking back at what history as taught us. And no matter which way you roll the dice, this year, history goes right out the window.

For example, it’s clear that the two frontrunners in this year’s Best Picture race are “Birdman” and “Boyhood,” the attack of the killer Bs. Both are stellar films finding themselves at the tip-top of my favorites list, however, both films have a lot stacked against them, at this point in the race. “Birdman” has racked up wins with the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild. The last time a film won that trifecta and lost the big prize was 19 years ago when “Apollo 13” lost to “Braveheart” in 1996. Meanwhile, “Boyhood” recently won the British Academy Award for Best Picture, an award that has lined up with Oscar for 6 years straight.

Perhaps the biggest precedent of them all is the one that Oscar prognosticators like myself can always fall back on for comfort, and that is the editors. As of this year, no film has won Best Picture without a nomination for Best Editing in 34 YEARS. “Birdman” would be the first since “Ordinary People” took down “Raging Bull” in 1981. Some might consider this a technicality with the whole “one shot” concept and that the editors simply didn’t understand or notice the intricacy and complexity of making such seamless cuts, but I think the editors are smarter than that.

Meanwhile, if the frontrunners manage to split and either “Selma,” or “The Grand Budapest Hotel” manages to upset, than one has to ask what they hell we’re all even doing here, from a predictions standpoint.

Anyway, I rail all this out, but we all know I’ll still be here trying my luck for years and years to come. But first things first, see below for my predicted winners, my runner-up guesses and my picks for if I had a vote. These favorites, of course, come just from the nominees. I’ll be doing my overall picks at the 5th Annual Edgy Awards over the next few weeks.

Here’s to the night and the history:

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BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR

WILL WIN: “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”

BEST DIRECTOR

WILL WIN: Richard Linklater – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Bennett Miller – “Foxcatcher”

BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Eddie Redmayne – “The Theory of Everything”
MIGHT WIN: Michael Keaton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Michael Keaton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Julianne Moore – “Still Alice”
MIGHT WIN: NOPE
SHOULD WIN: Julianne Moore – “Still Alice”

BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: J.K. Simmons – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Edward Norton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Edward Norton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Emma Stone – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “The Imitation Game”
MIGHT WIN: “Whiplash”
SHOULD WIN: “Inherent Vice”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

WILL WIN: “Wild Tales”
MIGHT WIN: “Ida”
SHOULD WIN: “Ida”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN: “Citizenfour”
MIGHT WIN: “Virunga”
SHOULD WIN: “Virunga”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WILL WIN: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”
MIGHT WIN: “Big Hero 6”
SHOULD WIN: N/A

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

BEST EDITING

WILL WIN: “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: “Whiplash”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Into the Woods”
SHOULD WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Mr. Turner”
SHOULD WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

BEST SOUND MIXING

WILL WIN: “Whiplash”
MIGHT WIN: “American Sniper”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

WILL WIN: “American Sniper”
MIGHT WIN: “Interstellar”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN: “Interstellar”
MIGHT WIN: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
SHOULD WIN: Either of the Above

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

WILL WIN: “Guardians of the Galaxy”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Guardians of the Galaxy”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

WILL WIN: “The Theory of Everything”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WILL WIN: “Glory” from “Selma”
MIGHT WIN: “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
SHOULD WIN: “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Aya”
MIGHT WIN: “The Phone Call”
SHOULD WIN: N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Feast”
MIGHT WIN: “The Bigger Picture”
SHOULD WIN: N/A

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

WILL WIN: “Joanna”
MIGHT WIN: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
SHOULD WIN: N/A

Predictions for the 86th Annual Academy Awards

oscars-normal

Despite all of the detriments and shenanigans that have occupied (and in some instances, plagued) my life over the last few months, including those that have almost precluded me from even getting to watch the Oscars this year, I’d never miss the chance to offer up my official predictions. Check out what I think will take home the gold, as well as the cliched (but effective) spiel of what could possibly win, what I think should win and what wasn’t even nominated but definitely should have.

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BEST PICTURE

WILL WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
COULD WIN: “Gravity”
SHOULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Inside Llewyn Davis” AND “Short Term 12”

BEST DIRECTOR

WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron – “Gravity”
COULD WIN: Steve McQueen – “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD WIN: Steve McQueen – “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: Paul Greengrass – “Captain Phillips”

BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey – “Dallas Buyers Club”
COULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Wolf of Wall Street”
SHOULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Wolf of Wall Street”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: Tom Hanks – “Captain Phillips” AND Oscar Isaac – “Inside Llewyn Davis”

BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”
COULD WIN: Judi Dench – “Philomena”
SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: Brie Larson – “Short Term 12”

BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club”
COULD WIN: Barkhad Abdi – “Captain Phillips”
SHOULD WIN: Michael Fassbender – “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: James Franco – “Spring Breakers”

BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong’o – “12 Years a Slave”
COULD WIN: Jennifer Lawrence – “American Hustle”
SHOULD WIN: Lupita Nyong’o – “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE – N/A (Again, I think this category is fantastic)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “Her”
COULD WIN: “American Hustle”
SHOULD WIN: “Her”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Inside Llewyn Davis”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
COULD WIN: “Philomena”
SHOULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: N/A (I full agree with these nominations)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WILL WIN: “Frozen”
COULD WIN: “The Wind Rises”
SHOULD WIN: “The Wind Rises”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: N/A (Unfortunately, I just don’t care too much about this category. No offense, animators)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN: “20 Feet From Stardom”
COULD WIN: “The Act of Killing”
SHOULD WIN: “The Act of Killing”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Blackfish”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

WILL WIN: “The Hunt”
COULD WIN: “The Great Beauty”
SHOULD WIN: “The Hunt”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: N/A (just haven’t paid enough attention to this category, this year)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
SHOULD WIN: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “12 Years a Slave”

BEST EDITING

WILL WIN: “Captain Phillips”
COULD WIN: “Gravity”
SHOULD WIN: “Captain Phillips”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “The Place Beyond the Pines”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN: “The Great Gatsby”
COULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD WIN: “Her”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Inside Llewyn Davis”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN: “The Great Gatsby”
COULD WIN: “American Hustle”
SHOULD WIN: “American Hustle”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “42”

BEST SOUND MIXING

WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: “Captain Phillips”
SHOULD WIN: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Stoker”

BEST SOUND EDITING

WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: “All is Lost”
SHOULD WIN: “Gravity”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Star Trek: Into Darkness”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: “Gravity”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Oblivion”

BEST MAKE-UP EFFECTS

WILL WIN: “Dallas Buyers Club”
COULD WIN: “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”
SHOULD WIN: “Dallas Buyers Club”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “12 Years a Slave”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WILL WIN: “Let It Go” from “Frozen”
COULD WIN: “Happy” from “Despicable Me”
SHOULD WIN: “The Moon Song” from “Her”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Young and Beautiful” from “The Great Gatsby”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: “Philomena”
SHOULD WIN: “Her”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “12 Years a Slave”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Get a Horse”
COULD WIN: “Feral”
SHOULD WIN: “N/A”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “N/A”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Helium”
COULD WIN: “The Voorman Problem”
SHOULD WIN: “N/A”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “N/A”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
COULD WIN: “Facing Fear”
SHOULD WIN: “N/A”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “N/A”

Happy Oscar Day, everyone!

Final 2013 Oscar Predictions with Analysis

February 24, 2013 Leave a comment

AMPAS Monday Nights With Oscar Screening Of "Driving Miss Daisy"

Only a couple hours left to go. Below, you can see my predictions for this year’s Oscar winners, finally set in stone. I’ve included a bit of insight and reasoning for each category.

Make sure to also check back for live updates as the awards are announced.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Will Win: “Argo”
Could Win: “Lincoln”
Analysis: This year’s Best Picture race is, without a doubt, the most upside down it’s been in recent memory. All logic (and good judgment) would point to “Lincoln,” as not only the year’s best film, but also the most nominated and a genuine perfect storm of concept and execution. However, the combination of a sweep of all four guilds, the BAFTA, the BFCA and the Globes, along with (and perhaps the cause of the former) the sympathy vote for Affleck and his lack of a Director nomination, one would have to be a fool not to predict it for the final showdown. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for an upset, but not my predictions.

Read more…

Oscar Winner Predictions: The Impossibility of Reason

February 14, 2013 Leave a comment

Argo_oscar_winner_predictions

I’ve taken somewhat of a backseat to much of this year’s Oscars and how they’ve unfolded. Maybe I don’t have as much time on my hands anymore, or perhaps I’m getting a little bit lazy. However, there’s also the immutable fact that this is, without a doubt, the weirdest Oscars I’ve ever bore witness to. Pundits like myself have bitched and moaned for years about the Oscar race becoming a predictable formality. Now, we’ve had so many wrenches thrown into the works that all of the precedents, reason and logic have just gone clear out the window. 2012 is the ultimate crapshoot.

Perhaps it’s a good thing, overall. Because while this year’s awards season has spiraled into an enormous whirlwind of indecision and confusion, I believe we can all find a consensus in the overwhelming class and quality that was on display in filmmaking during the past year. I can’t have enough good things to say about 2012 and I believe it will go down as shining star in the chronology of cinematic history, up there with the likes of 2001, 1980, 1976, 1960 and, of course, 1939. I also believe that, in some way, the less focus on awards and accolades, we can foresee that it’s ultimately the movies that we’ll remember decades from now, while fiasco over the gold will simply be an afterthought.

lincoln_oscar_winner_predictions

Nevertheless, at it’s roots, this is an awards site and it’s time to get down to business. Bottom line, the award for Best Picture (and more than a few others) was completely thrown for a loop the morning that the nominations were announced, when two of the year’s biggest heavyweights were absent from the shortlist. Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow being left in the cold was perhaps the strangest occurrence in this category since Ang Lee and Ron Howard failed to receive nominations for their respective work back in 1995 (“Apollo 13” and “Sense and Sensibility”). Yet, this may have overall worked in Affleck’s favor, for since that morning, every critic, actor, producer, director, grip, PA and their mother has seemed to fall head over heels for the film. At this point, it seems that enough voters will sway towards “Argo” for the Best Picture, out of sheer sympathy, more than anything else. It doesn’t hurt that it’s also a fantastically entertaining and uplifting piece that pulls at Oscar’s heartstrings like a toddler on a hoop earring.

Meanwhile, there’s a flip-side to every equation. “Argo” may have taken every award since that fateful morning, yet that doesn’t change the fact that the snub still happened. Affleck missing out on Best Director makes a huge statement. It has to be more than just a fluke or the notion of the Academy leaning so heavily on what the guilds have done in the past. Plus, while one can compare the strangeness of this year’s circumstances to ’95, it’s important to be reminded how that year turned out, with neither Lee or Howard taking home the big prize at the end of the night. For now, I’ll go with the odds-on favorite, but can easily see the winds shifting. This weekend’s WGA will may be a largely determining factor.

Alas, my first round of winner predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE: “Argo”

alternate: “Lincoln”

Read more…

Guilds, Guilds, Guilds Galore!

January 8, 2013 Leave a comment

sally_field_guild_awards_norma_rae

In the last several weeks, we’ve seen the top dogs of Hollywood’s guilds announce their nominations for best of the year. Nowadays, the precedent for any of these awards-giving bodies lining up with their equivalent Academy Award is virtually non-existant. However, they have always been the closest predictors of any precursor on the table. The Screen Actor’s Guild was the first to arrive with disappointments and surprises abound.

Undoubtedly, the guild elevated Nicole Kidman to a place of prominence in the Supporting field (simply a Golden Globe nomination could have been dismissible). Everything is pointing towards a nod, but I’m sticking with her just missing the cut for a surprise indy favorite in Ann Dowd from “Compliance”.

kinopoisk.ru

While the SAGs gave a boost to Kidman, they tied a cinderblock to perhaps my personal favorite performance of the year, none other than Joaquin Phoenix in “The Master”, in an attempt to drown it in the deep end of the pool. No doubt this miss of a nomination is due to Phoenix’ lack (or even disdain) of a campaign. He still managed the Globe and BFCA noms, however, and I doubt that Bradley Cooper will be able to garner as many No 1. votes on the ballots to squeeze him past such a die hard performance. Either you love it or hate it, but ask Terrence Malick how that methodology worked out for him last year.

Here’s the list of SAG nomination, color-coated with whom I think will advance:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role 
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role 
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role 
Alan Arkin – “Argo”
Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
Javier Bardem – “Skyfall”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role 
Sally Field – “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway – “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Maggie Smith – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”

As far as the Producer’s Guild is concerned, things couldn’t have gone more predictably. Generally, this field has a penchant for box office fair, with the Hollywood big whigs patting each other on the back over who managed to secure the best profit even when making decent cinema. Therefore, “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” with its minuscule budget and purebred independent production, showing up here is a bit surprising and more than a little admirable.

Daniel Craig

Meanwhile, I doubt that the mammoth monetary returns of the latest James Bond entry are the only reason for it’s appearance. “Skyfall” has been steadily gathering momentum since its release and a Best Picture nomination to follow would not be at all unexpected at this point. Given that it’s become a near lock for 4 nominations and a safe bet for 3 more, it may already be in the top tier in its total tally, so why not?

It’s really difficult to translate the PGA to Best Picture, given that one has a set amount of nominees, while the Oscars will be an unpredictable number between 5 and 10. Therefore, I’ve highlighted the definite locks and noted which films are surely on the bubble:

Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

As usual, the Writers Guild of America continued its inclusive, snobbish routine of listing all of the films that would not receive nominations based on the rules and regulations of the union and its membership. Some of the most prominent ineligibles include “”Django Unchained,” “Amour,” “Brave,” “Seven Psychopaths” and “The Intouchables” in in the original field, along with “Les Miserables,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and “Anna Karenina” absent from adapted.

Given that it actually did make the cut of qualifying films, “The Sessions” not showing up here is a major blow. It will have a hard time eking in a nod competing against a wider field on Thursday. “The Master” finally scored an important guild mention here after being largely shut out everywhere else. Will it be booted by QT’s “Django” in a few days. I severely pray not.

Joseph Gordon-Levitt; Bruce Willis

A joy to see on this list is definitely Rian Johnson’s mind-blowing sci fi action film “Looper,” which has risen from a financially unappreciated flop to a legitimate awards contender. Hopefully, it hold its ground for Oscar.

Here’s the two categories and my perspective:

Best Adapted Screenplay:
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
“Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Original Screenplay:
“Flight”
“Looper”
“The Master”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Finally, we come to the newly announced Directors Guild nominations, which, for the first time, were released after the close of Oscar balloting. Whether this proves a massive difference from other years will surely determine how much of an influence these nominations have on the hearts and minds of Oscar voters.

life_of_pi_directors_guild

Not a lot of surprises abound in this group of five. There were some who believed (and maybe a few who hoped, myself included) that “Life of Pi” had gone quiet in the final stretch of campaigning, leaving the coveted final spot for “Silver Linings Playbook” helmer David O’Russell. However, with nods from the PGA, WGA and now the DGA, it’s full steam ahead for this cartoonish storybook epic. Ang Lee is such a legend in this day and age that there might never have been a question about it.

I’m predicting a five-for-five line-up here, but would be thrilled to see either P.T. Anderson (“The Master”) or Michael Haneke (“Amour”) make surprise coups.

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film:
Ben Affleck, “Argo
Tom Hooper, “Les Misérables”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Stay tuned for my final Oscar predictions tomorrow evening. At this state in the race, it’s every man for himself until curtain call. Don’t be surprised if even what I’ve said above changes in the next 24 hours.

Updated 2013 Oscar Predictions – 12/29

December 30, 2012 Leave a comment

lincoln_oscar_predictions

It’s less than two weeks left until the big morning comes, but with everything that’s happened thus far, I thought it would be a good time to re-assess things. Obviously, “Zero Dark Thirty” has largely positioned itself at the head of the pack and Daniel Day Lewis is lined up for another coronation. However, many of the major categories still seem much more open then normal.

In the next two weeks, the guilds will really start to have their say. Throughout the last decade or so, these union groups nominations have very tight links to the eventual nominations. On the other hand, this year will be a unique one. For the first time, the DGA nominations won’t be announced until after Oscar ballots are due in. Therefore, this year, the DGA, which was always believed to have a large impact on not only Best Director, but the Best Picture category as well. Or perhaps this year will prove that theory wrong, in the event that we see the two organizations line-up without any connection proves that they really do think alike. We shall see.

Here’s my latest round of predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Silver Linings Playbook”
6. “Moonrise Kingdom”
7. “Life of Pi”
8. “Amour”
9. “The Master”
10. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Alt 1: Django Unchained
Alt 2: “Skyfall”

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
3. Ben Affleck – “Argo”
4. Tom Hooper – “Les Miserables”
5. David O’Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”

Alt 1: Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
Alt 2: Michael Haneke – “Amour”

BEST LEADING ACTOR

1. Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
2. Denzel Washington – “Flight”
3. Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
4. John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
5. Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”

Alt 1: Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
2. Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
3. Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
4. Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
5. Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”

Alt 1: Quevenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Alt 2: Rachel Weisz – “The Deep Blue Sea”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
3. Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. Alan Arkin – “Argo”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”

Alt 1: Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”
Alt 2: Eddie Redmayne – “Les Miserables”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
2. Sally Field – “Lincoln”
3. Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
4. Amy Adams – “The Master”
5. Ann Dowd – “Compliance”

Alt 1: Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Alt 2: Judi Dench – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. “Lincoln”
2. “Argo”
3. “Silver Linings Playbook”
4. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
5. “Life of Pi”

Alt 1: “The Sessions”
Alt 2: “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “The Master”
3. “Moonrise Kingdom”
4. “Amour”
5. “Looper”

Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Seven Psychopaths”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. “The Gatekeepers”
2. “The Invisible War”
3. “Searching for Sugar Man”
4. “The House I Live In”
5. “Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”

Alt 1: “How to Survive a Plague”
Alt 2: “Bully”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. “Brave”
2. “Frankenweenie”
3. “Wreck It Ralph”
4. “Paranorman”
5. “Rise of the Guardians”

Alt 1: “The Painting”
Alt 2: “Zarafa”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. “Amour”
2. “The Intouchables”
3. “A Royal Affair”
4. “War Witch”
5. “Sister”

Alt 1: “No”
Alt 2: “Kon Tiki”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Master”
3. “Skyfall”
4. “Lincoln”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”

Alt 1: “Les Miserables”
Alt 2: “Django Unchained”

BEST EDITING

1. “Zero Dark Thirty”
2. “Argo”
3. “Lincoln”
4. “Skyfall”
5. “Les Miserables”

Alt 1: “Silver Linings Playbook”
Alt 2: “LIfe of Pi”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “The Master”
5. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”

Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “Moonrise Kingdom”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. “Lincoln”
2. “Les Miserables”
3. “Anna Karenina”
4. “Mirror Mirror”
5. “Django Unchained”

Alt 1: “A Royal Affair”
Alt 2: “Snow White and the Huntsman”

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. “Les Miserables”
2. “Skyfall”
3. “The Dark Knight Rises”
4. “The Avengers”
5. “Zero Dark Thirty”

Alt 1: “Django Unchained”
Alt 2: “Life of Pi”

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1. “Skyfall”
2. “The Dark Knight Rises”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Les Miserables”
5. “Django Unchained”

Alt 1: “Zero Dark Thirty”
Alt 2: “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. “Life of Pi”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “The Avengers”
4. “Prometheus”
5. “The Dark Knight Rises”

Alt 1: “Cloud Atlas”
Alt 2: “John Carter”

BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS

1. “Lincoln”
2. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
3. “Les Miserables”

Alt 1: “Looper”
Alt 2: “Men in Black 3”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. “Life of Pi”
2. “Lincoln”
3. “Argo”
4. “Anna Karenina”
5. “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

Alt 1: “The Master”
Alt 2: “Skyfall”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Skyfall” – “Skyfall”
2. “Suddenly” – “Les Miserables”
3. “Learn Me Right” – “Brave”
4. “Still Alive” – “Paul Williams Still Alive”
5. “Ancora Qui” – “Django Unchained”

Alt 1: “From Here to the Moon and Back” – “Joyful Noise”
Alt 2: “Still Dream” – “Rise of the Guardians”

 

NOMINATIONS TALLY

12 – “Lincoln”
11 – “Les Miserables”
7 – “The Master”
7 – “Zero Dark Thirty”
6 – “Argo”
5 – “Life of Pi”
5 – “Silver Linings Playbook”
5 – “Skyfall”
4 – “Amour”
4 – “Django Unchained”
3 – “Anna Karenina”
3 – “The Avengers”
3 – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
3 – “The Dark Knight Rises”
3 – “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
2 – “Brave”
2 – “Moonrise Kingdom”
2 – “The Sessions”