Archive
Predictions for the 89th Academy Awards
Every year I seem to cut it closer and closer to game time. Lots to deliberate on, but really it just comes down to how many Oscars will “La La Land” NOT win. We’ll find out. See my predix below, as well as my picks if I had a ballot:
__________
BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle – “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: Denis Villeneuve – “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: Robert Eggers – “The Witch”
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
MIGHT WIN: Denzel Washington – “Fences”
MY VOTE: Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea”
SHOULD BE HERE: Joel Edgerton – “Loving”
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Emma Stone – “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: Isabelle Huppert – “Elle”
MY VOTE: Natalie Portman – “Jackie”
SHOULD BE HERE: Amy Adams – “Arrival”
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight”
MIGHT WIN: Dev Patel – “Lion”
MY VOTE: Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: Ralph Fiennes – “A Bigger Splash”
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Viola Davis – “Fences”
MIGHT WIN: Umm…
MY VOTE: Viola Davis – “Fences”
SHOULD BE HERE: Greta Gerwig – “20th Century Women”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “Manchester by the Sea”
MIGHT WIN: “La La Land”
MY VOTE: “Manchester by the Sea”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “Moonlight”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Loving”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL WIN: “The Salesman”
MIGHT WIN: “Toni Erdmann”
MY VOTE: “N/A”
SHOULD BE HERE: “N/A”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL WIN: “O.J. Made in America”
MIGHT WIN: “13th”
MY VOTE: “13th”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Tower”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: “Zootopia”
MIGHT WIN: “Kubo and the Two Strings”
MY VOTE: “Zootopia”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Sausage Party”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Lion”
MY VOTE: “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Jackie”
BEST EDITING
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Midnight Special”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Hail, Caesar!”
MY VOTE: “Hail, Caesar!”
SHOULD BE HERE: “The Witch”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: “Jackie”
MIGHT WIN: “La La Land”
MY VOTE: “Jackie”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Silence”
BEST SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Arrival”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Blair Witch”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
WILL WIN: “Arrival”
MIGHT WIN: “Hacksaw Ridge”
MY VOTE: “Arrival”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Midnight Special”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: “Jungle Book”
MIGHT WIN: “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
MY VOTE: “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Arrival”
BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
WILL WIN: “Suicide Squad”
MIGHT WIN: “Star Trek: Beyond”
MY VOTE: “Suicide Squad”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Hacksaw Ridge”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “Moonlight”
MY VOTE: “Moonlight”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Arrival”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”
MIGHT WIN: “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana”
MY VOTE: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Heathens” from “Suicide Squad”
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Sing”
MIGHT WIN: “Ennemis Interieurs”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Piper”
MIGHT WIN: “Borrowed Time”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
WILL WIN: “The White Helmets”
MIGHT WIN: “Joe’s Violin”
MY VOTE: N/A
SHOULD BE HERE: N/A
The 5th Annual Edgy Awards Winners
Let’s get this show on the road. Below are my picks for the best in each category from the 2014 movie season. I threw in a slew of fun categories at the end, for shits and giggles. Feel free to enjoy and comment if you like. Soon, I’ll be moving on to the current year at hand.
And the winners of the 5th Annual Edgy Awards are:
__________
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lost Stars” featured in “Begin Again”
Music and Lyrics by Gregg Alexander (1st win) and Danielle Brisebois (1st win)
Runner-Up: “Glory” featured in “Selma”
__________
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Foxcatcher”
Rob Simonsen (1st win)
Runner-Up: “Interstellar”
__________
BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
Eizabeth Yianni-Georgiou (1st win) and David White (1st win)
Runner-Up: “Foxcatcher”
__________
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Interstellar”
Scott Fisher (1st win), Paul J. Franklin (2nd Win), Ian Hunter (1st win) and Andrew Lockley (2nd win)
Runner-Up: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
__________
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
“Godzilla”
Erik Aadahl (2nd win) and Ethan Van der Ryn (3rd win)
Runner-Up: “Edge of Tomorrow”
__________
BEST SOUND EFFECTS MIXING
“Interstellar”
Greg Landaker (4th win), Gary Rizzo (2nd win) and Mark Weingarten (2nd Win)
Runner-Up: “Whiplash”
__________
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Milena Canonero (3rd win)
Runner-Up: “Inherent Vice”
__________
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance”
George DeTitta Jr. (1st win) and Kevin Thompson (1st win)
Runner-Up: “Snowpiercer”
__________
BEST EDITING
“Boyhood”
Sandra Adair (1st win)
Runner-Up: “Edge of Tomorrow”
__________
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance”
Emmanuel Lubezki (3rd win)
Runner-Up: “A Most Violent Year”
__________
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“The Overnighters”
Amanda McBaine (1st win) and Jesse Moss (1st win)
Runner-Up: “Virunga”
__________
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Inherent Vice”
Paul Thomas Anderson (2nd win)
Runner-Up: “Gone Girl”
__________
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Boyhood”
Richard Linklater (1st win)
Runner-Up: “Interstellar”
__________
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST PERFORMANCE
“Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance”
Lindsay Duncan, Zach Galifianakis, Michael Keaton, Edward Norton, Andrea Riseborough, Amy Ryan, Emma Stone, Naomi Watts, Merritt Wever
Runner-Up: “Pride”
__________
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”
1st Win
Runner-Up: Carrie Coon – “Gone Girl”
__________
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
J.K. Simmons – “Whiplash”
1st win
Runner-Up: Edward Norton – “Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance”
__________
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
Rosamund Pike – “Gone Girl”
1st win
Runner-Up: Julianne Moore – “Still Alice”
__________
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
Michael Keaton – “Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance”
1st Win
Runner-Up: Jake Gyllenhaal – “Nightcrawler”
__________
BEST DIRECTOR
Bennett Miller – “Foxcatcher”
2nd Win
Runner-Up: Richard Linklater – “Boyhood”
__________
BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR
“Boyhood”
Runner-Up: “Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance”
__________
Some say that this movie is all hype; a cinematic stunt that’s quality doesn’t measure up to the bar set by it’s premise. This could not be further from reality. The truth is that there has never been anything quite like this film and likely will not be again. Beyond the 12 year hook, which in and of itself is something to marvel at, “Boyhood” is a phenomenal collaboration between Richard Linklater’s extraordinary vision and the dedicated performers bringing it to life. The film takes what someone might consider insignificant moments in the life of an adolescent boy, and proves them to not only be the moments that matter, but a window into the soul. This may be the most impacting and influential film of the decade. Bravo.
As mentioned, here’s a collection of victors whose feats can’t really be honored in traditional categories. Therefore, the only way to give due props is to make up all new ones. I’ll then close it out with my ranked top ten list, which closes out 2014 and moves us on to what’s currently playing at a theater near you.
__________
FUNNIEST FILM
“The Lego Movie”
MOST EXCITING FILM
“Edge of Tomorrow”
MOST EMOTIONALLY MOVING FILM
“Boyhood”
MOST SURPRISING FILM
“Pride”
MOST DISAPPOINTING FILM
“American Sniper”
MOST UNDERRATED FILM
“A Most Violent Year”
MOST OVERRATED FILM
“The Theory of Everything”
BEST PROTAGONIST
Alan Turing – “The Imitation Game”
BEST ANTAGONIST
Amy Dunne – “Gone Girl”
BEST ANTI-HERO
Louis Bloom – “Nightcrawler”
BEST ROMANCE
John and Alice Howland – “Still Alice”
BEST RIVALRY
Mark Schultz, David Schultz and John du Pont – “Foxcatcher”
BEST OPENING
“Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance”
BEST ENDING
“Whiplash”
BEST SCENE
Bread and Roses – “Pride”
BEST LINE OF DIALOGUE
Terence Fletcher: “There are no two words in the English language more harmful than ‘good job’.”
FILM I REALLY WANTED TO SEE BUT NEVER GOT AROUND TO
“Mr. Turner”
MY TOP TEN FILMS OF 2014
1. “Boyhood”
2. “Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance”
3. “Interstellar”
4. “Foxcatcher”
5. “A Most Violent Year”
6. “Gone Girl”
7. “Whiplash”
8. “The Overnighters”
9. “Pride”
10. “Inherent Vice”
Stay tuned….
2015 Oscar Predix or The Inevitable End of the Precedent
The Oscars are down to minutes away and I was unbearably close to not even posting my predictions, and not just because I expect to do terrible in my guesses. There’s a number of reasons that predicting this year’s big night just seems a mute point and it has been a growing fundamental for the last couple of years. That precedent is, well, the end of all precedents.
Outside of gut instinct and sticking a wet finger up to feel which way the wind is blowing, the strongest aid in predicting the Oscars is looking back at what history as taught us. And no matter which way you roll the dice, this year, history goes right out the window.
For example, it’s clear that the two frontrunners in this year’s Best Picture race are “Birdman” and “Boyhood,” the attack of the killer Bs. Both are stellar films finding themselves at the tip-top of my favorites list, however, both films have a lot stacked against them, at this point in the race. “Birdman” has racked up wins with the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild. The last time a film won that trifecta and lost the big prize was 19 years ago when “Apollo 13” lost to “Braveheart” in 1996. Meanwhile, “Boyhood” recently won the British Academy Award for Best Picture, an award that has lined up with Oscar for 6 years straight.
Perhaps the biggest precedent of them all is the one that Oscar prognosticators like myself can always fall back on for comfort, and that is the editors. As of this year, no film has won Best Picture without a nomination for Best Editing in 34 YEARS. “Birdman” would be the first since “Ordinary People” took down “Raging Bull” in 1981. Some might consider this a technicality with the whole “one shot” concept and that the editors simply didn’t understand or notice the intricacy and complexity of making such seamless cuts, but I think the editors are smarter than that.
Meanwhile, if the frontrunners manage to split and either “Selma,” or “The Grand Budapest Hotel” manages to upset, than one has to ask what they hell we’re all even doing here, from a predictions standpoint.
Anyway, I rail all this out, but we all know I’ll still be here trying my luck for years and years to come. But first things first, see below for my predicted winners, my runner-up guesses and my picks for if I had a vote. These favorites, of course, come just from the nominees. I’ll be doing my overall picks at the 5th Annual Edgy Awards over the next few weeks.
Here’s to the night and the history:
__________
BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR
WILL WIN: “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Richard Linklater – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Bennett Miller – “Foxcatcher”
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Eddie Redmayne – “The Theory of Everything”
MIGHT WIN: Michael Keaton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Michael Keaton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Julianne Moore – “Still Alice”
MIGHT WIN: NOPE
SHOULD WIN: Julianne Moore – “Still Alice”
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: J.K. Simmons – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Edward Norton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Edward Norton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Emma Stone – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “The Imitation Game”
MIGHT WIN: “Whiplash”
SHOULD WIN: “Inherent Vice”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL WIN: “Wild Tales”
MIGHT WIN: “Ida”
SHOULD WIN: “Ida”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL WIN: “Citizenfour”
MIGHT WIN: “Virunga”
SHOULD WIN: “Virunga”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”
MIGHT WIN: “Big Hero 6”
SHOULD WIN: N/A
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
BEST EDITING
WILL WIN: “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: “Whiplash”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Into the Woods”
SHOULD WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Mr. Turner”
SHOULD WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
BEST SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: “Whiplash”
MIGHT WIN: “American Sniper”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
WILL WIN: “American Sniper”
MIGHT WIN: “Interstellar”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: “Interstellar”
MIGHT WIN: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
SHOULD WIN: Either of the Above
BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
WILL WIN: “Guardians of the Galaxy”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Guardians of the Galaxy”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: “The Theory of Everything”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: “Glory” from “Selma”
MIGHT WIN: “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
SHOULD WIN: “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Aya”
MIGHT WIN: “The Phone Call”
SHOULD WIN: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Feast”
MIGHT WIN: “The Bigger Picture”
SHOULD WIN: N/A
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
WILL WIN: “Joanna”
MIGHT WIN: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
SHOULD WIN: N/A
The 4th Annual Edgy Award Nominations
That’s right, I’ve returned again from the ashes to shower all of you with my cinematic opinions. For what reason? I suppose that’s ultimately up for you all to decide. For me, the cinematic process exists on three levels: people make films, people watch films and, finally, people discuss films. I’m here to plant my flag in the discussion, for that’s the only way that a film lives beyond the first two steps.
With the announcement of this year’s Academy Award nominations, I am compelled to throw my hat in the ring and let you all know of where they went wrong and, occasionally, strike gold. But most of all, I can’t help but get a metaphysical high from this; taking all of my cinematic conquests that I’ve spent my hard-earned money seeing, and lining them up in neat, organized columns. Maybe as a child, I spent too much time organizing my action figures and baseball cards, but I wouldn’t have it any other way. And given that I made my first “Top 100 Films” list when I was 11, I don’t think it could have turned out differently.
Now, as much as I can’t wait to dig into 2014, and all of its brightest points, I’ve still got a lot to see in the next 4 weeks. Meanwhile, due to a few too many unfortunate stints by my wife’s side in the hospital last winter (she’s fine, now, don’t worry), the 4th Annual Edgy Awards never had a chance to come to pass. Since you can’t have a 5th without the 4th, I’ll spend a bit more time covering my bases for this year and will offer a up a little blast from the past. We’ll get back to 2014 by the time the Oscars roll through, but for now, the year that was lost can now be found.
To remind everyone, while these are the “4th” Edgy Awards, I keep records going back to the 1940s. So while nominees’ records might not be published, they exist, nonetheless. Meanwhile, their nomination and win counts are restricted to the category they are nominated in (with the exception of all acting and music awards).
Here are the 2013 Nominations for the 4th Annual Edgy Awards:
__________
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Amen“
featured in “All is Lost”
Music and Lyrics by Alex Ebert (1st nom)
“The Moon Song“
featured in “Her”
Music and Lyrics by Karen O (1st nom)
“Please Please Mr. Kennedy“
featured in “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Music and Lyrics by T Bone Burnett (3rd nom, 1 win – “The Weary Kind” in “Crazy Heart”), George Cromarty (1st nom), Ed Rush (1st nom) and Justin Timberlake (1st nom)
“Silhouettes“
featured in “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire”
Music and Lyrics by Of Monsters and Men (1st nom)
“Young and Beautiful“
featured in “The Great Gatsby”
Music and Lana Del Ray (1st nom)
__________
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“12 Years a Slave“
Hans Zimmer (8th nom, 3 wins – “Gladiator,” “The Thin Red Line” and “Rain Man”)
“Gravity”
Steven Price (1st nom)
“Her“
Arcade Fire (2nd nom)
“The Place Beyond the Pines”
Mike Patton (1st nom)
“Stoker“
Clint Mansell (3rd nom, 1 win – “Moon)
__________
BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
“12 Years a Slave“
Nikki I. Brown (2nd nom) and Nick London (1st nom)
“American Hustle“
Lori McCoy-Bell (1st nom) and Evelyn Noraz (1st nom)
“Dallas Buyers Club“
Melanie Deforrest (1st nom) and Robin Mathews (2nd nom)
“The Hunger Games: Catching Fire“
Ve Neill (10th nom, 3 wins – “Mrs. Doubtfire,” “Batman Returns” and “Beetlejuice”)
“Prisoners“
Donald Mowat (1st nom)
__________
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“All is Lost“
Colin Davies (1st nom) and Bob Munroe (2nd nom)
“Gravity“
Neil Corbould (5th nom, 1 win – “Inception”), Chris Lawrence (1st nom) David Shirk (1st nom) and Timothy Webber (4th nom)
“Oblivion“
Eric Barba (4th nom, 1 win – “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) and Bjorn Mayer (1st nom)
“Pacific Rim“
Lindy DeQuattro (1st nom), Hal T. Hickell (4th nom, 1 win – “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”), John Knoll (8th nom, 2 wins – “Avatar” and “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”)
“Star Trek: Into Darkness“
Burt Dalton (4th nom, 1 win – “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”), Ben Grossman (3rd nom), Robert Guyett (6th nom), Paul Tubach (1st nom)
__________
BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
“Captain Phillips”
Oliver Tarney (2nd nom, 1 win – “United 93”)
“Gravity”
Glenn Freemantle (1st nom)
“Oblivion“
Al Nelson (1st nom)
“Star Trek: Into Darkness”
Ben Burtt (11th nom, 6 wins – “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade,” “Star Wars: Return of the Jedi,” “E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial,” “Raiders of the Lost Ark,” “Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back” and “Star Wars: A New Hope”) and Matthew Wood (6th nom)
“World War Z“
Nigel Stone (1st nom) and Ethan van der Ryn (7th nom, 2 wins – “LOTR: The Two Towers” and “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”)
__________
BEST SOUND MIXING
“Captain Phillips“
Chris Burdon (3rd nom), Chris Munro (5th nom, 1 win – “Black Hawk Down”), Mike Prestwood Smith (3rd nom) and Mark Taylor (1st nom)
“Gravity“
Niv Adiri (1st nom), Christopher Benstead (1st nom), Skip Lievsay (3rd nom) and Chris Munro (5th nom, 1 win – “Black Hawk Down”)
“Inside Llewyn Davis“
Peter F. Kurland (3rd nom), Skip Lievsay (3rd nom) Greg Orloff (3rd nom)
“Star Trek: Into Darkness”
Peter J. Devlin (5th nom), Will Files (3rd nom, 1 win – “Cloverfield”) and Andy Nelson (22nd nom, 5 wins – “Les Miserables,” “Cloverfield,” “Munich,” “Saving Private Ryan” and L.A. Confidential”)
“Stoker”
James Bolt (1st nom), Chuck Michael (1st nom) and John Morris (1st nom)
__________
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“12 Years a Slave“
Patricia Norris (6th nom, 3 wins – “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” “The Elephant Man” and “Days of Heaven”)
“42”
Caroline Harris (1st nom)
“American Hustle”
Michael Wilkinson (1st nom)
“The Great Gatsby”
Catherine Martin (2nd nom, 1 win – “Moulin Rouge”)
“Oz: The Great and Powerful“
Gary Jones (2nd nom)
__________
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“12 Years a Slave”
Alice Baker (1st nom) and Adam Stockhausen (2nd nom)
“The Conjuring”
Julie Berghoff (1st nom) and Sophie Neudorfer (1st nom)
“Gravity“
Andy Nicholson (1st nom), Rosie Goodwin (2nd nom) and Joanne Woollard (2nd nom)
“The Great Gatsby“
Catherine Martin (3rd nom, 2 wins – “Moulin Rouge” and “Romeo and Juliet”) and Beverley Dunn (1st nom)
“Her”
K.K. Barrett (2nd Nom) and Gene Serdana (1st nom)
__________
BEST EDITING
“12 Years a Slave“
Joe Walker (2nd nom)
“Captain Phillips”
Christopher Rouse (3rd nom, 1 win – “United 93”)
“Gravity”
Alfonso Cuaron (2nd nom) and Mark Sanger (1st nom)
“Inside Llewyn Davis“
Joel and Ethan Coen (3rd nom, 1 win – “Fargo”)
“The Place Beyond the Pines”
Jim Helton (1st nom) and Ron Patane (1st nom)
__________
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“12 Years a Slave“
Sean Bobbitt (3rd nom)
“Gravity”
Emmanuel Lubezki (4th nom, 2 wins – “The Tree of Life” and “Children of Men”)
“Inside Llewyn Davis“
Bruno Delbonnel (4th nom, 1 win – “A Very Long Engagement”)
“The Place Beyond the Pines”
Sean Bobbitt (3rd nom)
“Prisoners“
Roger Deakins (13th nom, 4 wins – “O Brother, Where Art Thou?,” “Fargo,” “The Shawshank Redemption” and “Barton Fink”)
___________
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“20 Feet from Stardom“
Gil Friesen (1st nom), Morgan Neville (1st nom), Caitrin Rogers (1st nom)
“The Act of Killing”
Joshua Oppenheimer (1st nom)
“Blackfish“
Gabriela Cowperthwaite (1st nom)
“Room 237“
Rodney Ascher (1st nom)
“Stories We Tell“
Sarah Polley (1st nom)
__________
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“12 Years a Slave“
John Ridley (2nd nom)
“Before Midnight“
Julie Delpy (1st nom), Ethan Hawke (1st nom) and Richard Linklater (4th nom)
“Captain Phillips”
Billy Ray (1st nom)
“Philomena“
Steve Coogan (1st nom) and Jeff Pope (1st nom)
“The Wolf of Wall Street“
Terrence Winter (1st nom)
__________
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Her”
Spike Jonze (1st nom)
“Inside Llewyn Davis“
Joel and Ethan Coen (8th nom, 3 wins – “No Country for Old Men,” “Fargo” and “Barton Fink”)
“Mud“
Jeff Nichols (1st nom)
“The Place Beyond the Pines“
Derek Cianfrance (2nd nom) Ben Coccio (1st nom) and Darius Marder (1st nom)
“Short Term 12“
Destin Daniel Cretton (1st nom)
__________
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
“12 Years a Slave”
Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Dano, Garret Dillahunt, Chiwetel Ejiofer, Michael Fassbender, Paul Giamatti, Lupita Nyong’o, Adepero Oduye, Sarah Paulson, Brad Pitt, Alfre Woodard
“American Hustle”
Amy Adams, Christian Bale, Louis C.K., Bradley Cooper, Robert De Niro, Jennifer Lawrence, Alessandro Nivola, Michael Pena, Jeremy Renner, Said Taghmaoui, Shea Whigham
“August: Osage County“
Abigail Breslin, Chris Cooper, Benedict Cumberbatch, Margo Martindale, Ewan McGregor, Dermot Mulroney, Julianne Nicholoson, Julia Roberts, Sam Shepard, Meryl Streep, Misty Upham
“The Place Beyond the Pines“
Rose Byrne, Emory Cohen, Bradley Cooper, Dane DeHaan, Ryan Gosling, Bruce Greenwood, Ray Liotta, Ben Mendelsohn, Eva Mendes,
“Prisoners”
Maria Bello, Paul Dano, David Dastmalchian, Viola Davis, Wayne Duvall, Jake Gyllenhaal, Terrence Howard, Hugh Jackman, Melissa Leo, Dylan Minette
__________
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Sally Hawkins – “Blue Jasmine”
(2nd nom, 1 win – “Happy-Go-Lucky”)
Jennifer Lawrence – “American Hustle”
(3rd nom)
Lupita Nyong’0 – “12 Years a Slave”
(1st nom)
Julia Roberts – “August: Osage County”
(3rd nom)
June Squibb – “Nebraska”
(1st nom)
__________
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
Barkhad Abdi – “Captain Phillips”
(1st nom)
Bradley Cooper – “American Hustle”
(1st nom)
Michael Fassbender – “12 Years a Slave”
(2nd nom)
James Franco – “Spring Breakers”
(2nd nom)
Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club”
(1st nom)
__________
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”
(5th nom, 2 win – “I’m Not There” and “Elizabeth”)
Sandra Bullock – “Gravity”
(1st nom)
Julie Delpy – “Before Midnight”
(3rd nom)
Brie Larson – “Short Term 12”
(1st nom)
Meryl Streep – “August: Osage County”
(14th nom – 6 wins – “Adaptation,” “A Cry in the Dark,” “Sophie’s Choice,” “The French Lieutenant’s Woman,” “Kramer vs. Kramer” and “The Deer Hunter”)
__________
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Wolf of Wall Street”
(7th nom, 1 win – “The Aviator”)
Chiwetel Ejiofer – “12 Years a Slave”
(1st nom)
Tom Hanks – “Captain Phillips”
(8th nom – 1 win – “Cast Away”)
Oscar Isaac – “Inside Llewyn Davis”
(1st nom)
Michael Shannon – “The Iceman”
(3rd nom)
__________
BEST DIRECTOR
Joel and Ethan Coen – “Inside Llewyn Davis”
(6th nom, 1 win – “Fargo”)
Alfonso Cuaron – “Gravity”
(3rd nom)
Paul Greengrass – “Captain Phillips”
(3rd nom, 1 win – “United 93”)
Steve McQueen – “12 Years a Slave”
(2nd nom)
Denis Villeneuve – “Prisoners”
(1st nom)
__________
BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
“12 Years a Slave”
Dede Gardner (2nd nomination), Jeremy Kleiner (1st nom), Steve McQueen (1st nom) and Brad Pitt (4th nom, 1 win – “Moneyball”)
“The Act of Killing”
Jeremy Oppenheimer (1st nom) and Signe Byrne Sorenson (1st nom)
“Captain Phillips”
Dana Brunetti (2nd nom, 1 win – “The Social Network”), Michael De Luca (3rd nom, 2nd win – “Moneyball” and “The Social Network”) and Scott Rudin (11th nom, 1 win – “The Social Network”)
“Gravity“
Alfonso Cuaron (3rd nom) and David Heyman (2nd nom)
“Her“
Megan Ellison (3rd nom), Spike Jonze (1st nom) and Vincent Landay (2nd nom, 1 win – “Adaptation”)
“Inside Llewyn Davis“
Joel and Ethan Coen (3rd nom) and Scott Rudin (11th nom, 1 win – “The Social Network”)
“The Place Beyond the Pines”
Lynette Howell (3rd nom), Sidney Kimmel (1st nom), Alex Orlovsky (3rd nom) and James Patricof (3rd nom)
“Prisoners“
Kira Davis (1st nom), Broderick Johnson (1st nom) and Andrew Kosove (1st nom)
“Short Term 12“
Joshua Astrachan (1st nom), Ron Najor (1st nom) and Maren Olson (1st nom)
“The Wolf of Wall Street“
Leonardo DiCaprio (1st nom), Emma Tillinger Koskoff (1st nom), Joey McFarland (1st nom) and Martin Scorsese (1st nom)
__________
NOMINATION LEADERS
“12 Years a Slave” – 13 nominations
“Gravity” – 10 nominations
“Captain Phillips” – 8 nominations
“Inside Llewyn Davis” – 8 nominations
“The Place Beyond the Pines” – 6 nominations
“American Hustle” – 5 nominations
“Her” – 5 nominations
“Prisoners” – 5 nominations
“August: Osage County” – 3 nominations
“The Great Gatsby” – 3 nominations
“Short Term 12” – 3 nominations
“Star Trek: Into Darkness” – 3 nominations
“The Wolf of Wall Street” – 3 nominations
Predictions for the 86th Annual Academy Awards
Despite all of the detriments and shenanigans that have occupied (and in some instances, plagued) my life over the last few months, including those that have almost precluded me from even getting to watch the Oscars this year, I’d never miss the chance to offer up my official predictions. Check out what I think will take home the gold, as well as the cliched (but effective) spiel of what could possibly win, what I think should win and what wasn’t even nominated but definitely should have.
_________________
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
COULD WIN: “Gravity”
SHOULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Inside Llewyn Davis” AND “Short Term 12”
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron – “Gravity”
COULD WIN: Steve McQueen – “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD WIN: Steve McQueen – “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: Paul Greengrass – “Captain Phillips”
BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey – “Dallas Buyers Club”
COULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Wolf of Wall Street”
SHOULD WIN: Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Wolf of Wall Street”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: Tom Hanks – “Captain Phillips” AND Oscar Isaac – “Inside Llewyn Davis”
BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE
WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”
COULD WIN: Judi Dench – “Philomena”
SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: Brie Larson – “Short Term 12”
BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club”
COULD WIN: Barkhad Abdi – “Captain Phillips”
SHOULD WIN: Michael Fassbender – “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: James Franco – “Spring Breakers”
BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE
WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong’o – “12 Years a Slave”
COULD WIN: Jennifer Lawrence – “American Hustle”
SHOULD WIN: Lupita Nyong’o – “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE – N/A (Again, I think this category is fantastic)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “Her”
COULD WIN: “American Hustle”
SHOULD WIN: “Her”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WILL WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
COULD WIN: “Philomena”
SHOULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: N/A (I full agree with these nominations)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WILL WIN: “Frozen”
COULD WIN: “The Wind Rises”
SHOULD WIN: “The Wind Rises”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: N/A (Unfortunately, I just don’t care too much about this category. No offense, animators)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
WILL WIN: “20 Feet From Stardom”
COULD WIN: “The Act of Killing”
SHOULD WIN: “The Act of Killing”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Blackfish”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
WILL WIN: “The Hunt”
COULD WIN: “The Great Beauty”
SHOULD WIN: “The Hunt”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: N/A (just haven’t paid enough attention to this category, this year)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
SHOULD WIN: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “12 Years a Slave”
BEST EDITING
WILL WIN: “Captain Phillips”
COULD WIN: “Gravity”
SHOULD WIN: “Captain Phillips”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “The Place Beyond the Pines”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
WILL WIN: “The Great Gatsby”
COULD WIN: “12 Years a Slave”
SHOULD WIN: “Her”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
WILL WIN: “The Great Gatsby”
COULD WIN: “American Hustle”
SHOULD WIN: “American Hustle”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “42”
BEST SOUND MIXING
WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: “Captain Phillips”
SHOULD WIN: “Inside Llewyn Davis”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Stoker”
BEST SOUND EDITING
WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: “All is Lost”
SHOULD WIN: “Gravity”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Star Trek: Into Darkness”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: “Gravity”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Oblivion”
BEST MAKE-UP EFFECTS
WILL WIN: “Dallas Buyers Club”
COULD WIN: “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”
SHOULD WIN: “Dallas Buyers Club”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “12 Years a Slave”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
WILL WIN: “Let It Go” from “Frozen”
COULD WIN: “Happy” from “Despicable Me”
SHOULD WIN: “The Moon Song” from “Her”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “Young and Beautiful” from “The Great Gatsby”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: “Gravity”
COULD WIN: “Philomena”
SHOULD WIN: “Her”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “12 Years a Slave”
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Get a Horse”
COULD WIN: “Feral”
SHOULD WIN: “N/A”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “N/A”
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “Helium”
COULD WIN: “The Voorman Problem”
SHOULD WIN: “N/A”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “N/A”
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
WILL WIN: “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
COULD WIN: “Facing Fear”
SHOULD WIN: “N/A”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE: “N/A”
Happy Oscar Day, everyone!
Final 2013 Oscar Predictions with Analysis
Only a couple hours left to go. Below, you can see my predictions for this year’s Oscar winners, finally set in stone. I’ve included a bit of insight and reasoning for each category.
Make sure to also check back for live updates as the awards are announced.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Will Win: “Argo”
Could Win: “Lincoln”
Analysis: This year’s Best Picture race is, without a doubt, the most upside down it’s been in recent memory. All logic (and good judgment) would point to “Lincoln,” as not only the year’s best film, but also the most nominated and a genuine perfect storm of concept and execution. However, the combination of a sweep of all four guilds, the BAFTA, the BFCA and the Globes, along with (and perhaps the cause of the former) the sympathy vote for Affleck and his lack of a Director nomination, one would have to be a fool not to predict it for the final showdown. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for an upset, but not my predictions.
My 2012 Top Ten List
It seems ironic and more than a little redeeming that around this same time last year, I ran my mouth off about 2011 being one of the worst quality years for filmmaking in some time. Well, the gods of cinema seem to have answered my prayers, for I don’t think I could have asked for a more diverse and memorable year. Just working on this list is a treat, and I hope so will reading it.
Without further adieu, let’s start with this year’s runners-up:
_____________
“The Dark Knight Rises”
Directed by Christopher Nolan
Written by Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan
While living up to its predecessor was a bit too much to ask for, Nolan’s final chapter is still a head above any other comic book film in this year, or really any other. The new characters are sharp, the villains are brutal and the epic tale’s message is as poignant as ever.
70th Annual Golden Globe Winners LIVE
WINNERS
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA”
Winner: “Argo”
BEST PICTURE – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Winner: “Les Miserables”
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Winner: Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Winner: Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL/COMEDY
Winner: Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Christoph Waltz – “Django Unchained” (barf)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Anne Hathaway – “Les Miserables”
BEST DIRECTOR
Winner: Ben Affleck – “Argo”
BEST SCREENPLAY
Winner: “Django Unchained”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Winner: “Amour”
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: “Brave”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: “Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: “Life of Pi”
The 85th Academy Awards Nominations
BEST PICTURE
“Amour”
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Miserables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke – “Amour”
Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
David O’Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
Behn Zeitlin – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
Quvenzhane Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin – “Argo”
Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz – “Django Unchained”
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams – “The Master”
Sally Field – “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway – “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
Jacki Weaver – “Silver Linings Playbook”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Amour”
“Django Unchained”
“Flight”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Amour” – Austria
“Kon-Tiki” – Norway
“No” – Chile
“A Royal Affair” – Denmark
“War Witch” – Canada
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Invisible War”
“Searching for Sugar Man”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”
“The Pirates! Band of Misfits”
“Wreck-It Ralph”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Anna Karenina”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
BEST EDITING
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Anna Karenina”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Anna Karenina”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Mirror Mirror”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST SOUND MIXING
“Argo”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
BEST SOUND EDITING
“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice”
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from “Ted”
“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Anna Karenina”
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Skyfall”
Guilds, Guilds, Guilds Galore!
In the last several weeks, we’ve seen the top dogs of Hollywood’s guilds announce their nominations for best of the year. Nowadays, the precedent for any of these awards-giving bodies lining up with their equivalent Academy Award is virtually non-existant. However, they have always been the closest predictors of any precursor on the table. The Screen Actor’s Guild was the first to arrive with disappointments and surprises abound.
Undoubtedly, the guild elevated Nicole Kidman to a place of prominence in the Supporting field (simply a Golden Globe nomination could have been dismissible). Everything is pointing towards a nod, but I’m sticking with her just missing the cut for a surprise indy favorite in Ann Dowd from “Compliance”.
While the SAGs gave a boost to Kidman, they tied a cinderblock to perhaps my personal favorite performance of the year, none other than Joaquin Phoenix in “The Master”, in an attempt to drown it in the deep end of the pool. No doubt this miss of a nomination is due to Phoenix’ lack (or even disdain) of a campaign. He still managed the Globe and BFCA noms, however, and I doubt that Bradley Cooper will be able to garner as many No 1. votes on the ballots to squeeze him past such a die hard performance. Either you love it or hate it, but ask Terrence Malick how that methodology worked out for him last year.
Here’s the list of SAG nomination, color-coated with whom I think will advance:
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Miserables”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin – “Argo”
Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
Javier Bardem – “Skyfall”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Sally Field – “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway – “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”
Maggie Smith – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
As far as the Producer’s Guild is concerned, things couldn’t have gone more predictably. Generally, this field has a penchant for box office fair, with the Hollywood big whigs patting each other on the back over who managed to secure the best profit even when making decent cinema. Therefore, “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” with its minuscule budget and purebred independent production, showing up here is a bit surprising and more than a little admirable.
Meanwhile, I doubt that the mammoth monetary returns of the latest James Bond entry are the only reason for it’s appearance. “Skyfall” has been steadily gathering momentum since its release and a Best Picture nomination to follow would not be at all unexpected at this point. Given that it’s become a near lock for 4 nominations and a safe bet for 3 more, it may already be in the top tier in its total tally, so why not?
It’s really difficult to translate the PGA to Best Picture, given that one has a set amount of nominees, while the Oscars will be an unpredictable number between 5 and 10. Therefore, I’ve highlighted the definite locks and noted which films are surely on the bubble:
Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
“Argo”
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Misérables”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Skyfall”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
As usual, the Writers Guild of America continued its inclusive, snobbish routine of listing all of the films that would not receive nominations based on the rules and regulations of the union and its membership. Some of the most prominent ineligibles include “”Django Unchained,” “Amour,” “Brave,” “Seven Psychopaths” and “The Intouchables” in in the original field, along with “Les Miserables,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and “Anna Karenina” absent from adapted.
Given that it actually did make the cut of qualifying films, “The Sessions” not showing up here is a major blow. It will have a hard time eking in a nod competing against a wider field on Thursday. “The Master” finally scored an important guild mention here after being largely shut out everywhere else. Will it be booted by QT’s “Django” in a few days. I severely pray not.
A joy to see on this list is definitely Rian Johnson’s mind-blowing sci fi action film “Looper,” which has risen from a financially unappreciated flop to a legitimate awards contender. Hopefully, it hold its ground for Oscar.
Here’s the two categories and my perspective:
Best Adapted Screenplay:
“Argo”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
Best Original Screenplay:
“Flight”
“Looper”
“The Master”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
Finally, we come to the newly announced Directors Guild nominations, which, for the first time, were released after the close of Oscar balloting. Whether this proves a massive difference from other years will surely determine how much of an influence these nominations have on the hearts and minds of Oscar voters.
Not a lot of surprises abound in this group of five. There were some who believed (and maybe a few who hoped, myself included) that “Life of Pi” had gone quiet in the final stretch of campaigning, leaving the coveted final spot for “Silver Linings Playbook” helmer David O’Russell. However, with nods from the PGA, WGA and now the DGA, it’s full steam ahead for this cartoonish storybook epic. Ang Lee is such a legend in this day and age that there might never have been a question about it.
I’m predicting a five-for-five line-up here, but would be thrilled to see either P.T. Anderson (“The Master”) or Michael Haneke (“Amour”) make surprise coups.
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film:
Ben Affleck, “Argo
Tom Hooper, “Les Misérables”
Ang Lee, “Life of Pi”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Stay tuned for my final Oscar predictions tomorrow evening. At this state in the race, it’s every man for himself until curtain call. Don’t be surprised if even what I’ve said above changes in the next 24 hours.
The Edge of the Frame 