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2015 Oscar Predix or The Inevitable End of the Precedent

OSCARS 2015 The Oscars are down to minutes away and I was unbearably close to not even posting my predictions, and not just because I expect to do terrible in my guesses. There’s a number of reasons that predicting this year’s big night just seems a mute point and it has been a growing fundamental for the last couple of years. That precedent is, well, the end of all precedents.

Outside of gut instinct and sticking a wet finger up to feel which way the wind is blowing, the strongest aid in predicting the Oscars is looking back at what history as taught us. And no matter which way you roll the dice, this year, history goes right out the window.

For example, it’s clear that the two frontrunners in this year’s Best Picture race are “Birdman” and “Boyhood,” the attack of the killer Bs. Both are stellar films finding themselves at the tip-top of my favorites list, however, both films have a lot stacked against them, at this point in the race. “Birdman” has racked up wins with the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild. The last time a film won that trifecta and lost the big prize was 19 years ago when “Apollo 13” lost to “Braveheart” in 1996. Meanwhile, “Boyhood” recently won the British Academy Award for Best Picture, an award that has lined up with Oscar for 6 years straight.

Perhaps the biggest precedent of them all is the one that Oscar prognosticators like myself can always fall back on for comfort, and that is the editors. As of this year, no film has won Best Picture without a nomination for Best Editing in 34 YEARS. “Birdman” would be the first since “Ordinary People” took down “Raging Bull” in 1981. Some might consider this a technicality with the whole “one shot” concept and that the editors simply didn’t understand or notice the intricacy and complexity of making such seamless cuts, but I think the editors are smarter than that.

Meanwhile, if the frontrunners manage to split and either “Selma,” or “The Grand Budapest Hotel” manages to upset, than one has to ask what they hell we’re all even doing here, from a predictions standpoint.

Anyway, I rail all this out, but we all know I’ll still be here trying my luck for years and years to come. But first things first, see below for my predicted winners, my runner-up guesses and my picks for if I had a vote. These favorites, of course, come just from the nominees. I’ll be doing my overall picks at the 5th Annual Edgy Awards over the next few weeks.

Here’s to the night and the history:

__________

BEST MOTION PICTURE of the YEAR

WILL WIN: “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”

BEST DIRECTOR

WILL WIN: Richard Linklater – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Bennett Miller – “Foxcatcher”

BEST ACTOR in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Eddie Redmayne – “The Theory of Everything”
MIGHT WIN: Michael Keaton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Michael Keaton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

BEST ACTRESS in a LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN: Julianne Moore – “Still Alice”
MIGHT WIN: NOPE
SHOULD WIN: Julianne Moore – “Still Alice”

BEST ACTOR in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: J.K. Simmons – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Edward Norton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Edward Norton – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

BEST ACTRESS in a SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: Emma Stone – “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: Patricia Arquette – “Boyhood”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WILL WIN: “The Imitation Game”
MIGHT WIN: “Whiplash”
SHOULD WIN: “Inherent Vice”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

WILL WIN: “Wild Tales”
MIGHT WIN: “Ida”
SHOULD WIN: “Ida”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN: “Citizenfour”
MIGHT WIN: “Virunga”
SHOULD WIN: “Virunga”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WILL WIN: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”
MIGHT WIN: “Big Hero 6”
SHOULD WIN: N/A

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

BEST EDITING

WILL WIN: “Boyhood”
MIGHT WIN: “Whiplash”
SHOULD WIN: “Boyhood”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Into the Woods”
SHOULD WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
MIGHT WIN: “Mr. Turner”
SHOULD WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

BEST SOUND MIXING

WILL WIN: “Whiplash”
MIGHT WIN: “American Sniper”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

WILL WIN: “American Sniper”
MIGHT WIN: “Interstellar”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN: “Interstellar”
MIGHT WIN: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
SHOULD WIN: Either of the Above

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

WILL WIN: “Guardians of the Galaxy”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Guardians of the Galaxy”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

WILL WIN: “The Theory of Everything”
MIGHT WIN: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
SHOULD WIN: “Interstellar”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WILL WIN: “Glory” from “Selma”
MIGHT WIN: “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
SHOULD WIN: “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Aya”
MIGHT WIN: “The Phone Call”
SHOULD WIN: N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

WILL WIN: “Feast”
MIGHT WIN: “The Bigger Picture”
SHOULD WIN: N/A

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

WILL WIN: “Joanna”
MIGHT WIN: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
SHOULD WIN: N/A

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