Only a couple hours left to go. Below, you can see my predictions for this year’s Oscar winners, finally set in stone. I’ve included a bit of insight and reasoning for each category.
Make sure to also check back for live updates as the awards are announced.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Will Win: “Argo”
Could Win: “Lincoln”
Analysis: This year’s Best Picture race is, without a doubt, the most upside down it’s been in recent memory. All logic (and good judgment) would point to “Lincoln,” as not only the year’s best film, but also the most nominated and a genuine perfect storm of concept and execution. However, the combination of a sweep of all four guilds, the BAFTA, the BFCA and the Globes, along with (and perhaps the cause of the former) the sympathy vote for Affleck and his lack of a Director nomination, one would have to be a fool not to predict it for the final showdown. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for an upset, but not my predictions.
I feel like there’s not much need to preface this. The format is pretty much the same as last year. These are the Edge of the Frame’s equivalent to the Academy Awards and represent what I believe to be the best achievements of the year in my own selection of categories.
It’s important to remember that while these are the third published set of awards, I have a record of my nominations and winners going back to the forties. Therefore, their total count of former nominations is accurate based on the films that I’ve seen. Also, aside from the performance and music categories, individuals former nominations and victories are listed only for the category that they are currently nominated in.
I don’t mind saying that I’m particularly fond of these choices, but if you disagree, join the conversation in the comments and let me know.
Here are the nominees for the 3rd Annual Edgy Awards:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
featured in “Django Unchained”
Music and Lyrics by Ennio Morricone (5th nom, 4 wins – “The Mission,” “Once Upon a Time in America,” “Days of Heaven,” and “The Good, the Bad and Ugly”) and Elisa (1st nom)
“Breath of Life“
featured in “Snow White and the Huntsman”
Music and Lyrics by Florence and the Machine (1st nom)
featured in “Skyfall”
Music and Lyrics by Adele (1st nom)
“Song of the Lonely Mountain“
featured in “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Music and Lyrics by Neil Finn (1st nom), David Donaldson (1st nom), David Long (1st nom) and Janet Roddick (1st nom)
featured in “Les Miserables”
Music and Lyrics by Herbert Kretzmer (1st nom), Claude-Michel Schonberg (1st nom) and Alain Boublil (1st nom)
It seems ironic and more than a little redeeming that around this same time last year, I ran my mouth off about 2011 being one of the worst quality years for filmmaking in some time. Well, the gods of cinema seem to have answered my prayers, for I don’t think I could have asked for a more diverse and memorable year. Just working on this list is a treat, and I hope so will reading it.
Without further adieu, let’s start with this year’s runners-up:
Directed by Christopher Nolan
Written by Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan
While living up to its predecessor was a bit too much to ask for, Nolan’s final chapter is still a head above any other comic book film in this year, or really any other. The new characters are sharp, the villains are brutal and the epic tale’s message is as poignant as ever.
I’ve taken somewhat of a backseat to much of this year’s Oscars and how they’ve unfolded. Maybe I don’t have as much time on my hands anymore, or perhaps I’m getting a little bit lazy. However, there’s also the immutable fact that this is, without a doubt, the weirdest Oscars I’ve ever bore witness to. Pundits like myself have bitched and moaned for years about the Oscar race becoming a predictable formality. Now, we’ve had so many wrenches thrown into the works that all of the precedents, reason and logic have just gone clear out the window. 2012 is the ultimate crapshoot.
Perhaps it’s a good thing, overall. Because while this year’s awards season has spiraled into an enormous whirlwind of indecision and confusion, I believe we can all find a consensus in the overwhelming class and quality that was on display in filmmaking during the past year. I can’t have enough good things to say about 2012 and I believe it will go down as shining star in the chronology of cinematic history, up there with the likes of 2001, 1980, 1976, 1960 and, of course, 1939. I also believe that, in some way, the less focus on awards and accolades, we can foresee that it’s ultimately the movies that we’ll remember decades from now, while fiasco over the gold will simply be an afterthought.
Nevertheless, at it’s roots, this is an awards site and it’s time to get down to business. Bottom line, the award for Best Picture (and more than a few others) was completely thrown for a loop the morning that the nominations were announced, when two of the year’s biggest heavyweights were absent from the shortlist. Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow being left in the cold was perhaps the strangest occurrence in this category since Ang Lee and Ron Howard failed to receive nominations for their respective work back in 1995 (“Apollo 13” and “Sense and Sensibility”). Yet, this may have overall worked in Affleck’s favor, for since that morning, every critic, actor, producer, director, grip, PA and their mother has seemed to fall head over heels for the film. At this point, it seems that enough voters will sway towards “Argo” for the Best Picture, out of sheer sympathy, more than anything else. It doesn’t hurt that it’s also a fantastically entertaining and uplifting piece that pulls at Oscar’s heartstrings like a toddler on a hoop earring.
Meanwhile, there’s a flip-side to every equation. “Argo” may have taken every award since that fateful morning, yet that doesn’t change the fact that the snub still happened. Affleck missing out on Best Director makes a huge statement. It has to be more than just a fluke or the notion of the Academy leaning so heavily on what the guilds have done in the past. Plus, while one can compare the strangeness of this year’s circumstances to ’95, it’s important to be reminded how that year turned out, with neither Lee or Howard taking home the big prize at the end of the night. For now, I’ll go with the odds-on favorite, but can easily see the winds shifting. This weekend’s WGA will may be a largely determining factor.
Alas, my first round of winner predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE: “Argo”