Home > Musings, Oscars > Updated Oscar Predictions – 12/5

Updated Oscar Predictions – 12/5

Thought I’d throw these up real quick before anything has the chance to further throw things off track. With so much going on, it’s almost impossible to do this without live prediction updates with every new announcement. Yet, it’s important to remember that many of the announcements, while notable, are not intensively significant in terms of the Oscar season. When predicting at this point, you almost have to just stick your finger up and see where the wind is blowing.

There are two films that have certainly positioned themselves at the head of the field, and it’s not like we weren’t already aware. “The Descendants” and “The Artist” have dominated the majority of awards announcements thus far and are not likely to stop.”Moneyball” and “The Tree of Life” have definitely shown their still in the game, while “Hugo” has emerged as a candidate and potential frontrunner.

While the guilds will largely decide its fate, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” has yet to receive any notice at all. Neither, to some extent, has “War Horse,” yet Mr. Spielberg’s film is far from leaving contention. Meanwhile, “The Girl with Dragon Tattoo” and “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” remain shrouded in a fair amount of mystery.

Remember, that while I hope that these predictions are a bit more relevant than my last, things are going to get blown wide open in about ten days when we have the results of the BFCA, the SAG and the Golden Globe nominations. Therefore, enjoy these while they last. Things are about to get messy.

Check out my full list of predictions after the cut:

BEST PICTURE

1. “The Artist”
2. “The Descendants”
3. “War Horse”
4. “Hugo”
5. “Moneyball”
6. “The Help”
7. “Midnight in Paris”
8. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9. “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
10. “The Tree of Life”

Alt 1: “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
Alt 2: “Shame”

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Michael Hazavanicius – “The Artist”
2. Alexander Payne – “The Descendants”
3. Steven Spielberg – “War Horse”
4. Martin Scorsese – “Hugo”
5. David Fincher – “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Alt 1: Terrence Malick – “The Tree of Life”
Alt 2: Woody Allen – “Midnight in Paris”

BEST ACTOR

1. George Clooney – “The Descendants”
2. Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”
3. Brad Pitt – “Moneyball”
4. Michael Fassbender – “Shame”
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – “J. Edgar”

Alt 1: Gary Oldman – “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Alt 2: Michael Shannon – “Take Shelter”

BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”
2. Viola Davis – “The Help”
3. Michelle Williams – “My Week with Marilyn”
4. Tilda Swinton – “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
5. Glenn Close – “Albert Nobbs”

Alt 1: Rooney Mara – “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Alt 2: Charlize Theron – “Young Adult”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Christopher Plummer – “The Beginners”
2. Albert Brooks – “Drive”
3. Kenneth Branagh – “My Week with Marilyn”
4. Jonah Hill – “Moneyball”
5. Brad Pitt – “The Tree of Life”

Alt 1: Patton Oswalt – “Young Adult”
Alt 2: Max von Sydow “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Octavia Spencer – “The Help”
2. Shailene Woodley – “The Descendants”
3. Vanessa Redgrave – “Coriolanus”
4. Melissa McCarthy – “Bridesmaids”
5. Berenice Bejo – “The Artist”

Alt 1: Jessica Chastain – “The Help”
Alt 2: Janet McTeer – “Albert Nobbs”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. “The Descendants”
2. “Moneyball”
3. “The Help”
4. “War Horse”
5. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Alt 1: “Hugo”
Alt 2: “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. “The Artist”
2. “Midnight in Paris”
3. “Win Win”
4. “50/50”
5. “The Tree of Life”

Alt 1: “Bridesmaids”
Alt 2: “Margin Call”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. “Project Nim”
2. “Hell and Back Again”
3. “We Were Here”
4. “Pina”
5. “Buck”

Alt 1: “If a Tree Falls: The Story of the Earth Liberation Front”
Alt 2: “Bill Cunningham: New York”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. “The Adventures of Tintin”
2. “Rango”
3. “Puss in Boots”
4. “Cars 2”
5. “Arthur Christmas”

Alt 1: “Kung Fu Panda 2”
Alt 2: “Winnie the Pooh”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. “A Separation”
2. “Le Havre”
3. “A Declaration of War”
4. “The Turn House”
5. “Pina”

Alt 1: “Miss Bala”
Alt 2: “Flowers of War”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. “The Tree of Life”
2. “War Horse”
3. “The Artist”
4. “Hugo”
5. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Alt 1: “Moneyball”
Alt 2: “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

BEST EDITING

1. “War Horse”
2. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
3. “The Artist”
4. “Moneyball”
5. “Hugo”

Alt 1: “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Alt 2: “The Descendants”

BEST ART DIRECTION

1. “Hugo”
2. “The Artist”
3. “War Horse”
4. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part 2”
5. “Jane Eyre”

Alt 1: “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Alt 2: “Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. “The Artist”
2. “Jane Eyre”
3. “Hugo”
4. “War Horse”
5. “My Week with Marilyn”

Alt 1: “The Help”
Alt 2: “Water for Elephants”

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. “War Horse”
2. “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
3. “The Adventures of Tintin”
4. “Super 8”
5. “The Artist”

Alt 1: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Alt 2: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1. “Super 8”
2. “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
3. “War Horse”
4. “The Adventures of Tintin”
5. “Rango”

Alt 1: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
Alt 2: “Real Steal”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
2. “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
3. “Hugo”
4. “Super 8”
5. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part II”

Alt 1: “Real Steel”
Alt 2: “The Tree of Life”

BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS

1. “J. Edgar”
2. “The Iron Lady”
3. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part II”

Alt 1: “The Artist”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

***Waiting for the official list of finalists***

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. “War Horse”
2. “The Artist”
3. “The Adventures of Tintin”
4. “Hugo”
5. “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

Alt 1: “Rango”
Alt 2: “Jane Eyre”

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