The Edge of the Frame

Another month has passed, and many of the biggest potential candidates have yet to be released to the general public (or the people who actually vote on them). However, there have definitely been a few shifts in the state of the race. Several horses have solidified themselves while others have fallen from grace. Meanwhile, most still remain a mystery.

One film has certainly been securely planted into the Best Picture race after a decent showing in the box office and nearly unanimous praise from critics (including this one). That movie is “Moneyball.” Aaron Sorkin looks to make it two nominations in a row with his fantastic script shared with Stephen Zallian. For sure, Brad Pitt, Bennett Miller and even Jonah Hill also have chances for nominations as well. The film is far from a lock in terms of a Best Picture nomination, especially with the potentially smaller field. Yet, it has definitely sky-rocketed into contention.

While certain films are on the rise, others are falling fast. One of the season’s early hopefuls has hit a series of brick walls on the festival trail. David Cronenberg’s “A Dangerous Method” had a lot of potential, but is mostly coming across critics and audiences that simply like it or don’t. Rave reviews are an elusive find. While Keira Knightley is definitely getting the majority of the raves, keeping her in the game, the studio is attempting to campaign her in the leading category, which I personally see as a mistake. Maybe “Method” still has a shot at a few nominations, but overall, it seems to be fading fast into limbo.

One major question, awaiting a final judgment, is whether or not “The Adventures of Tin Tin” will be ruled as an animated film or as live action due to its motion capture. This will have a huge impact on at least Best Animated Feature, for if it is ruled a cartoon, expect it to win in a walk. If not, then “Rango” becomes the frontrunner. For now, I will keep it in the category and I hope it stays. God help us when the Academy and people as a whole start to lose track of what is animated and what isn’t. I mean, seriously.

Finally, one movie that was originally poised for a potential victory on the big night was “The Ides of March.” However, now that the film has come and nearly gone, it doesn’t seem to have made as big of a splash that it would have liked. box office was relatively poor and reviews are missing a positive consensus. It seems as though the idea of the film (a political thriller, very much in the moment with George Clooney in nearly every single credit) is keeping it afloat more so than the film itself. Since critics will most likely pass it over when their awards come along, the buzz will have to survive until the guilds for it to have any kind of chance.

As far as “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” I really don’t know what to do with it, yet. As much as everyone else sees it becoming THE frontrunner for pretty much everything, I could just as easily see it missing completely. For now, I’m leaving it out of most categories, but that may change if the buzz increases once critics actually start to see it.

Well, enough talk. I will let the rest of my predictions speak for themselves. Check out the full list after the jump or up in the predictions tab in the corner of the page. Enjoy!

BEST PICTURE

1. War Horse
2. The Descendants
3. J. Edgar
4. The Artist
5. The Ides of March
6. The Help
7. Moneyball
8. Midnight in Paris
9. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
10. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Alt 1: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alt 2: The Tree of Life

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Steven Spielberg – War Horse
2. Clint Eastwood – J. Edgar
3. Alexander Payne – The Descendants
4. Michael Hazanavicius – The Artist
5. David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Alt 1: Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
Alt 2. George Clooney – The Ides of March

BEST ACTOR

1. George Clooney – The Descendants
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
3. Brad Pitt – Moneyball
4. Jean Dujardin – The Artist
5. Michael Fassbender – Shame

Alt 1: Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Alt 2: Woody Harrelson – Rampart

BEST ACTRESS

1. Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis – The Help
3. Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
4. Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
5. Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

6. Rooney Mara – The Girl with Dragon Tattoo
7. Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Christopher Plummer – Beginners
2. Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
3. Armie Hammer – J. Edgar
4. Albert Brooks – Drive
5. Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady

Alt 1: Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
Alt 2: George Clooney – The Ides of March

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Octavia Spencer – The Help
2. Shailene Woodley – The Descendants
3. Judi Dench – J. Edgar
4. Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus
5. Carey Mulligan – Shame

Alt 1: Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Alt 2: Jessica Chastain – The Help

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Descendants
2. War Horse
3. Moneyball
4. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
5. The Help

Alt 1: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alt 2: The Ides of March

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. J. Edgar
4. Martha Marcy May Marlene
5. Like Crazy

Alt 1: Bridesmaids
Alt 2: The Tree of Life

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. The Interrupters
2. Project Nim
3. Senna
4. Tabloid
5. Buck

Alt 1: Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Alt 2: If a Tree Falls

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

—TBD—

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Adventures of Tin Tin: Secret of the Unicorn
2. Rango
3. Happy Feet 2
4. Arthur Christmas
5. Puss in Boots

Alt 1: Cars 2
Alt 2: Kung Fu Panda 2

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Tree of Life
2. War Horse
3. The Artist
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Alt 1: Moneyball
Alt 2: J. Edgar

BEST EDITING

1. War Horse
2. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
3. J. Edgar
4. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
5. The Artist

Alt 1: Moneyball
Alt 2: The Ides of March

BEST ART DIRECTION

1. War Horse
2. Hugo
3. The Artist
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part II
5. Annonymous

Alt 1: J. Edgar
Alt 2: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Artist
2. Annonymous
3. W.E.
4. The Help
5. War Horse

Alt 1: Hugo
Alt 2: Jane Eyre

BEST SOUND EFFECTS MIXING

1. Super 8
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
3. War Horse
4. The Adventures of Tin Tin: Secret of the Unicorn
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Alt 1: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Alt 2: Rango

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1. Super 8
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
3. Real Steel
4. The Adventures of Tin Tin: Secret of the Unicorn
5. Rango

Alt 1: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Alt 2: Cars 2

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
3. Super 8
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part II
5. Real Steel

Alt 1: Hugo
Alt 2: The Tree of Life

BEST MAKE-UP

1. J. Edgar
2. The Iron Lady
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part II

Alt 1: Hugo
Alt 2: Albert Nobbs

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. War Horse
2. Rango
3. The Artist
4. The Adventures of Tin Tin: Secret of the Unicorn
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Alt 1: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Alt 2: J. Edgar

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

—TBD—