Another month has passed, and many of the biggest potential candidates have yet to be released to the general public (or the people who actually vote on them). However, there have definitely been a few shifts in the state of the race. Several horses have solidified themselves while others have fallen from grace. Meanwhile, most still remain a mystery.
One film has certainly been securely planted into the Best Picture race after a decent showing in the box office and nearly unanimous praise from critics (including this one). That movie is “Moneyball.” Aaron Sorkin looks to make it two nominations in a row with his fantastic script shared with Stephen Zallian. For sure, Brad Pitt, Bennett Miller and even Jonah Hill also have chances for nominations as well. The film is far from a lock in terms of a Best Picture nomination, especially with the potentially smaller field. Yet, it has definitely sky-rocketed into contention.
While certain films are on the rise, others are falling fast. One of the season’s early hopefuls has hit a series of brick walls on the festival trail. David Cronenberg’s “A Dangerous Method” had a lot of potential, but is mostly coming across critics and audiences that simply like it or don’t. Rave reviews are an elusive find. While Keira Knightley is definitely getting the majority of the raves, keeping her in the game, the studio is attempting to campaign her in the leading category, which I personally see as a mistake. Maybe “Method” still has a shot at a few nominations, but overall, it seems to be fading fast into limbo.
One major question, awaiting a final judgment, is whether or not “The Adventures of Tin Tin” will be ruled as an animated film or as live action due to its motion capture. This will have a huge impact on at least Best Animated Feature, for if it is ruled a cartoon, expect it to win in a walk. If not, then “Rango” becomes the frontrunner. For now, I will keep it in the category and I hope it stays. God help us when the Academy and people as a whole start to lose track of what is animated and what isn’t. I mean, seriously.
Finally, one movie that was originally poised for a potential victory on the big night was “The Ides of March.” However, now that the film has come and nearly gone, it doesn’t seem to have made as big of a splash that it would have liked. box office was relatively poor and reviews are missing a positive consensus. It seems as though the idea of the film (a political thriller, very much in the moment with George Clooney in nearly every single credit) is keeping it afloat more so than the film itself. Since critics will most likely pass it over when their awards come along, the buzz will have to survive until the guilds for it to have any kind of chance.
As far as “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close,” I really don’t know what to do with it, yet. As much as everyone else sees it becoming THE frontrunner for pretty much everything, I could just as easily see it missing completely. For now, I’m leaving it out of most categories, but that may change if the buzz increases once critics actually start to see it.
Well, enough talk. I will let the rest of my predictions speak for themselves. Check out the full list after the jump or up in the predictions tab in the corner of the page. Enjoy!
1. War Horse
2. The Descendants
3. J. Edgar
4. The Artist
5. The Ides of March
6. The Help
8. Midnight in Paris
9. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
10. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Alt 1: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alt 2: The Tree of Life
I know that I said I would have my new Oscar predictions up, and I am working on that. However, this is something that any self-respecting movie aficionado should not miss. It’s almost a plain and simple fact that no film has been more talked about on the festival circuits then Steve McQueen’s visceral and provocative “Shame.” Michael Fassbender took home the Volpi Cup for Best Actor and the film had to have come close to taking down the grand prize both at Venice and Toronto. When Fox Searchlight picked up the distributing rights for the film, it was going to be very curious as to how they would go about marketing it. It seems that they have hit the nail on the head.
For those that don’t know, the film tells the story of Brandon (Michael Fassbender) a rising New York City businessman who has an insatiable and unwavering addiction to having sex. Things become more complicated when his needy sister (Carey Mulligan) moves in with him and attempts to help fight his situation. The film has been heralded as a masterpiece, while also cited for its unrelenting sexuality. It will indefinitely receive an NC-17 rating, with little doubt of a fight from its maverick director. Usually, this would potentially injure an independent film quite badly in its fight for viewers. However, if Searchlight continues to pump out incredible trailers like the one below, they should have no problem building up a cult army of box office supporters. All this is making a Best Actor nomination for Michael Fassbender more and more likely.
I will definitely be first in line when it is released. In the mean time, I think I’ll watch this trailer again. Enjoy.
Over the summer, everyone questioned what I said when I declared that what we had seen of Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse” was only a teaser and there would surely be more to come. Well, here I stand on my own high horse with a new trailer for the upcoming film. Unfortunately, the new trailer doesn’t really seem to do much more than rearrange and expand on a lot of the footage shown in the last preview.
Many pundits, at the moment, are calling this film the frontrunner for Best Picture. While it definitely has a boatload of nominations in line, I would not put it at the front of the gate. The Oscars seem to enjoy Spielberg most at his grittiest, and this appears to be perhaps one of the most sentimental ventures he has ever made. One thing’s for sure about the film, however. It looks absolutely gorgeous. If all plays out, one award we can definitely say that “War Horse” is leading the field in is Best Cinematography. Should it win, my favorite active DP, Janusz Kaminski, would have three Oscars on his mantel, putting him among a group you could count on one hand, including Robert Surtees and the great Conrad L. Hall.
Recently, Dreamworks bumped up the release date to Christmas day. This now puts it within four days of “The Adventures of Tin Tin”‘s official opening. Mr. Spielberg does love to face off against himself. Not that he has anything to lose, really. Both films are sure to gross well over the 100 million mark. Combined with the success of “Super 8,” “Transformers 3,” “Terra Nova,” and all coupled with his reception of the David O’Selznick award from the Producers Guild, this will be a pretty good year for one of Hollywood’s greatest sons. And “Lincoln” hasn’t even started shooting yet.
Check out the new trailer, below: