Home > Musings, Oscars > My FINAL Oscar Predictions – 1/22

My FINAL Oscar Predictions – 1/22

This is it. Last call before closing. Nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards will be announced this Tuesday, January 25th, at 7:30am CST (and you can bet I’ll be up hours before then, pumping myself up). For sure, there is a science behind the whole prediction game. A combination of elements, including what’s been happening with the critics groups awards, the different guild nominations and, in some cases, the film’s box office success. Along with that, there’s likability in each contender, how many times they’ve previously been nominated and won, a pseudo-mathematic question of their overall “due” status. Dozens of factors take shape in hugely methodic process, and this is all before anyone even takes into effect how good each contender is. Crazy, huh?

Well, a year-long process has now come to a close, and it’s time for me to nut up and offer my final predictions. The Best Picture line-up is basically down to 11 contenders, with two films vying for the final slot. It’s possible that either “Shutter Island” or “The Ghost Writer” could stage a massive coup and fight their way in their, but I doubt it. Some predictions that I’m sticking my neck out on? I’m still holding on to my convictions (and hopes) that the incredible John Hawkes can beat out Jeremy Renner in the Best Supporting Actor category. I’m also holding out hope that both of “Blue Valentine”‘s stars will outdo their older competition for leading notices. I’m also really hoping that “Exit Through the Gift Shop” can actually tickle the documentary branch’s funny bone (a feat not easily accomplished). Finally, here’s to “Winter’s Bone” edging out “The Town” for Best Picture. In fact, I’m predicting an across-the-board snub of the film. It’s only a slightly above action feature that has no business in the top ten. I have a strong feeling, though, that it will be this year’s “Blind Side.”

Without further adieu, here are the nominees (and once again, these are ranked in order of their chance of getting nominated, not winning):

BEST PICTURE
1. “The Social Network”
2. “The King’s Speech”
3. “The Fighter”
4. “Black Swan”
5. “Inception”
6. “Toy Story 3”
7. “True Grit”
8. “The Kids Are All Right”
9. “127 Hours”
10. “Winter’s Bone”

Alt 1: “The Town”
Alt 2: “Shutter Island”

Click READ MORE to see the rest.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher – “The Social Network”
2. Christopher Nolan – “Inception”
3. Darren Aronofsky – “Black Swan”
4. Tom Hooper – “The King’s Speech”
5. David O’Russell – “The Fighter”

Alt 1: Joel and Ethan Coen – “True Grit”
Alt 2: Debra Granik – “Winter’s Bone”

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
2. Jesse Eisenberg – “The Social Network”
3. James Franco – “127 Hours”
4. Jeff Bridges – “True Grit”
5. Ryan Gosling – “Blue Valentine”

Alt 1: Robert Duvall – “Get Low”
Alt 2: Javier Bardem – “Biutiful”

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
2. Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
3. Jennifer Lawrence – “Winter’s Bone”
4. Nicole Kidman – “Rabbit Hole”
5. Michelle Williams – “Blue Valentine”

Alt 1: Lesley Manville – “Another Year”
Alt 2: Hilary Swank – “Conviction”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
2. Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech”
3. Mark Ruffalo – “The Kids Are All Right”
4. Andrew Garfield – “The Social Network”
5. John Hawkes – “Winter’s Bone”

Alt 1: Jeremy Renner – “The Town”
Alt 2: Matt Damon – “True Grit”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
2. Hailee Steinfeld – “True Grit”
3. Amy Adams – “The Fighter”
4. Helena Bonham Carter – “The King’s Speech”
5. Jacki Weaver – “Animal Kingdom”

Alt 1: Mila Kunis – “Black Swan”
Alt 2: Olivia Williams – “The Ghost Writer”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “The King’s Speech”
2. “The Kids Are All Right”
3. “Inception”
4. “Black Swan”
5. “Another Year”

Alt 1: “The Fighter”
Alt 2: “Blue Valentine”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “The Social Network”
2. “Toy Story 3”
3. “True Grit”
4. “Winter’s Bone”
5. “127 Hours”

Alt 1: “The Ghost Writer”
Alt 2: “The Town”

BEST ANIMATED FILM
1. “Toy Story 3”
2. “How to Train Your Dragon”
3. “The Illusionist”

Alt 1: “Despicable Me”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. “Inside Job”
2. “Waiting for Superman”
3. “Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Elliot Spitzer”
4. “Restrepo”
5. “Exit Through the Gift Shop”

Alt 1: “GasLand”
Alt 2: “The Tillman Story”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. “Life, Above All” – South Africa
2. “In a Better World” – Denmark
3. “Incendies” – Canada
4. “Biutiful” – Mexico
5. “Dogtooth” – Greece

Alt 1: “Outside the Law” – Algeria
Alt 2: “Confessions” – Japan

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “True Grit”
2. “Black Swan”
3. “Inception”
4. “The Social Network”
5. “Shutter Island”

Alt 1: “The King’s Speech”
Alt 2: “127 Hours”

BEST EDITING
1. “The Social Network”
2. “Inception”
3. “Black Swan”
4. “The King’s Speech”
5. “The Fighter”

Alt 1: “127 Hours”
Alt 2: “True Grit”

BEST ART DIRECTION
1. “Alice in Wonderland”
2. “Inception”
3. “The King’s Speech”
4. “Shutter Island”
5. “Black Swan”

Alt 1: “True Grit”
Alt 2: “TRON: Legacy”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “The King’s Speech”
2. “Alice in Wonderland”
3. “True Grit”
4. “The Tempest”
5. “Burlesque”

Alt 1: “Black Swan”
Alt 2: “Get Low”

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “Inception”
2. “True Grit”
3. “Black Swan”
4. “The Social Network”
5. “127 Hours”

Alt 1: “TRON: Legacy”
Alt 2: “Salt”

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. “Inception”
2. “Black Swan”
3. “TRON: Legacy”
4. “Toy Story 3”
5. “True Grit”

Alt 1: “How to Train Your Dragon”
Alt 2: “Iron Man 2”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “Inception”
2. “TRON: Legacy”
3. “Alice in Wonderland”
4. “Iron Man 2”
5. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part I”

Alt 1: “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”
Alt 2: “Hereafter”

BEST MAKEUP EFFECTS
1. “Alice in Wonderland”
2. “The Wolfman”
3. “Barney’s Version”

Alt 1: “The Way Back”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” – “Burlesque”
2. “Shine” – “Waiting for Superman”
3. “If I Rise” – “127 Hours”
4. “I See the Light” – “Tangled”
5. “We Belong Together” – “Toy Story 3”

Alt 1: “Coming Home” – “Country Strong”
Alt 2: “Sticks and Stones” – “How to Train Your Dragon”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. “Inception”
2. “The King’s Speech”
3. “The Social Network”
4. “How to Train Your Dragon”
5. “Never Let Me Go”

Alt 1: “Alice in Wonderland”
Alt 2: “The Ghost Writer”

The final tally for Best Picture nominees:

“Inception” – 10 nominations
“The King’s Speech” – 10 nominations
“The Social Network” – 9 nominations
“Black Swan” – 9 nominations
“True Grit” – 8 nominations
“The Fighter” – 6 nominations
“Toy Story 3” – 5 nominations
“127 Hours” – 5 nominations
“The Kids Are All Right” – 4 nominations
“Winter’s Bone” – 4 nominations

Here we go. I shall officially have no more nails left to bite by Tuesday morning.

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  1. lily
    January 24, 2011 at 6:01 am

    agree 100% with this 🙂

  2. January 24, 2011 at 6:47 pm

    We have pretty much the same predictions, except for Best Costume Design. I doubt the academy will nominate “Burlesque” over “Black Swan”.

  3. January 24, 2011 at 8:22 pm

    I feel as though the immensity, expanse and overall showiness of “Burlesque”‘s will win out with the Academy. I mean when you really think about, how much costuming is really done in “Black Swan”? Yes, they do a lot of great stuff with tones of black and white and the actual swan costume is vastly impressive. But for seventy-five percent of the film, we’re basically just talking about pea coats and tights. Not sure if it will merit well with the costume branch.

    I’d say the film’s biggest chance of making it in here is if the category gets folded into the overall “Black Swan” sweep.

    I’d say a real spoiler in this category might be “Made in Dagenham” for its British-sixties fare.

  4. backtodavid
    January 25, 2011 at 8:54 am

    You did really well – funny that Burlesque, nor Black Swan got a costume design nomination 🙂

  5. January 25, 2011 at 1:05 pm

    Nice job here! Good call on Michelle Williams, and Dogtooth. We called all the Supporting Actresses as well. Tough to see the Nolan snub coming though.

  6. January 25, 2011 at 1:15 pm

    i can’t believe anyone in their right mind could have predicted the Nolan snub. That, “Inception” for Editing, and “I Am Love” for Costumes had to have been the most difficult to foresee.

    Goddamn it, I’m so happy about John Hawkes, as I see you are, as well.

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