The Edge of the Frame

What with everything that has happened in the last month in regards to the critics, the Globes and the SAGs, I figure that it’s time to do a full update on my Oscar predictions. Not a lot has shifted in the technical cateogories, except that “The Social Network” is looking more and more like a sure thing for a Best Original Score nomination. I’ve also taken “The King’s Speech” out of Best Editing. If it does miss that nomination, and somehow goes on to win Best Picture, it will be the first film in 30 years to win the big one without the support of the editors. Those two awards somehow go hand in hand.

As far as the acting categories go, Best Actor seems pretty much locked. Jesse Eisenberg has carved his name in stone and is just as solid as the top two contenders. There’s an outside chance that Ryan Gosling might break in and knock out one of the two veterans, but becoming less and less likely. A big question for Best Actress is who will take the place of Hilary Swank, after the odd as hell SAG nomination. I’m still betting on Lesley Manville, and not just because of the NBR stat, but because it’s a truly endearing character. However, much like Gosling, Williams is looming, and I can definitely see her getting a nomination, much like Laura Linney did for “The Savages” in 2007, and she didn’t even have the Golden Globe nod.

I think its safe to say that Justin Timberlake has fallen out of the running, especially since Andrew Garfield is no longer a lock. I refuse to predict Jeremy Renner until there’s no hope left. Never thought I’d find myself rooting against one of my favorite performers. My how the tables turn. I am however, hoping that the Academy will remain as bold as the SAG and nominate John Hawkes, but its a crap shoot. In Best Supporting Actress, it’s pretty solid that both of “The Fighter”‘s ladies will be making it in, though Leo definitely has the edge. Mila Kunis and Jacki Weaver will fight it out for the last slot.

One thing that I think is safe to say is that “The Fighter” is now as solid a contender as it has ever been. We shall see how it fares with the rest of the guilds, but from the SAGs and Globes, alone, it has gained even more ground than “Black Swan.”

Read all of my predictions after the jump:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Toy Story 3
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. The Fighter
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. 127 Hours
9. True Grit
10. Winter’s Bone

Alt 1: The Town
Alt 2: Another Year

BEST DIRECTOR

1. David Fincher – The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
3. Christopher Nolan – Inception
4. Darren Arronofsky – Black Swan
5. Danny Boyle – 127 Hours

Alt 1: David O’Russell – The Fighter
Alt 2: The Coen Brothers – True Grit

BEST ACTOR

1. Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
2. James Franco – 127 Hours
3. Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
4. Jeff Bridges – True Grit
5. Robert Duvall – Get Low

Alt 1: Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Alt 2: Javier Bardem – Biutiful

BEST ACTRESS

1. Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
2. Natalie Portman – Black Swan
3. Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
4. Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
5. Lesley Manville – Another Year

Alt 1: Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Alt 2: Hilary Swank – Conviction

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
2. Christian Bale – The Fighter
3. Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
4. Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
5. John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone

Alt 1: Jeremy Renner – The Town
Alt 2: Sam Rockwell – Conviction

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Melissa Leo – The Fighter
2. Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
3. Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
4. Amy Adams – The Fighter
5. Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Alt 1: Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Alt 2: Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Kids Are All Right
2. The King’s Speech
3. Inception
4. Black Swan
5. Another Year

Alt 1: The Fighter
Alt 2: Blue Valentine

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Social Network
2. Toy Story 3
3. 127 Hours
4. Winter’s Bone
5. True Grit

Alt 1: The Ghost Writer
Alt 2: The Town

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 3
2. How to Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist

Alt: Despicable Me

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Inside Job
2. Waiting for Superman
3. Restrepo
4. The Tillman Story
5. Exit Through the Gift Shop

Alt 1: Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Alt 2: Wasteland

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

*****COMING SOON*****WAITING ON FINAL LIST OF SUBMISSIONS*****

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. True Grit
2. 127 Hours
3. Inception
4. Black Swan
5. Shutter Island

Alt 1: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part I
Alt 2: The Social Network

BEST EDITING

1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. 127 Hours
4. Black Swan
5. The Fighter

Alt 1: True Grit
Alt 2: The King’s Speech

BEST ART DIRECTION

1. The King’s Speech
2. Alice in Wonderland
3. Inception
4. True Grit
5. Shutter Island

Alt 1: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part I
Alt 2: Black Swan

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Alice in Wonderland
2. The King’s Speech
3. True Grit
4. The Tempest
5. Get Low

Alt 1: Burlesque
Alt 2: Shutter Island

BEST SOUND EFFECTS MIXING

1. Inception
2. TRON Legacy
3. 127 Hours
4. Toy Story 3
5. True Grit

Alt 1: Iron Man 2
Alt 2: The Fighter

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1. Toy Story 3
2. Inception
3. TRON Legacy
4. 127 Hours
5. Robin Hood

Alt 1: Iron Man 2
Alt 2: How to Train Your Dragon

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. TRON Legacy
2. Inception
3. Alice in Wonderland
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part I
5. Iron Man 2

Alt: 1: Clash of the Titans
Alt 2: The Last Airbender

BEST MAKE-UP EFFECTS

1. Alice in Wonderland
2. Black Swan
3. The Wolfman

Alt: Splice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The King’s Speech
2. Never Let Me Go
3. Inception
4. The Social Network
5. How to Train Your Dragon

Alt 1: True Grit
Alt 2: Toy Story 3

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Shine” – Waiting for ‘Superman
2. “Coming Home” – Country Strong
3. “If I Rise” – 127 Hours
4. “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” – Burlesque
5. “We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3

Alt 1: “I See the Light” – Tangled
Alt 2: “Alice” – Alice in Wonderland