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Oscar Predictions 11/27!

So it’s now only a little more than 2 months until the 2011 Academy Award nominations are officially announced. And now that Thanksgiving has passed, this blog will soon be buzzing with critics groups awards, top ten lists and guild nominations. Therefore, I figure it’s about time to update my predictions.

Some things are falling apart, and some stars are rising. Some things are, well, staying pretty much the same. I’m starting to lose faith that “The Way Back” will be able to gain enough momentum going into January, even if it does live up to being one of Peter Weir’s best. Same thing for the women’s rights film, “Made in Dagenham.”

However, it seems that the planets are finally aligning for Darren Arronofsky, really for the first time, as “Black Swan” is riding one of the best publicity waves of the year. It doesn’t help that the film might actually be the best of the young auteur’s career. I don’t see “127 Hours” disappearing from the list any time soon, either. Also, it appears that “Toy Story 3” is becoming a nearly unstoppable force (deservingly so) and could actually become the third member of a 3-way race for the win. Who would have thought?

As of now though, it’s still between the same two horses: “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network.” It kind of seems as though it will remain that way, too. I imagine that “The Social Network” will garner a lot of the critics awards. A dream come true would be a sweep of the LAFCA, the NYFCC and the National Society of Film Critics, just as “The Hurt Locker” did. However, with “Toy Story 3″‘s reviews being nearly as good, it will have competition. I could further go into my guild hopes, as well, but we’ll try to keep the cart behind the horse and take this thing one step at a time.

BEST PICTURE

1. The King’s Speech
2. The Social Network
3. Toy Story 3
4. Inception
5. 127 Hours
6. Black Swan
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. The Fighter
9. True Grit
10. Winter’s Bone

Alt 1: The Way Back
Alt 2: Another Year

BEST DIRECTOR

1. David Fincher – The Social Network
2. Danny Boyle – 127 Hours
3. Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
4. Christopher Nolan – Inception
5. Darren Arronofsky – Black Swan

Alt 1: The Coen Brothers – True Grit
Alt 2: Mike Leigh – Another Year

BEST ACTOR

1. Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
2. James Franco – 127 Hours
3. Jeff Bridges – True Grit
4. Robert Duvall – Get Low
5. Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network

Alt 1: Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Alt 2: Javier Bardem – Biutiful

BEST ACTRESS

1. Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
2. Natalie Portman – Black Swan
3. Lesley Manville – Another Year
4. Sally Hawkins – Made in Dagenham
5. Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Alt 1: Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Alt 2: Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
2. Christian Bale – The Fighter
3. Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
4. Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
5. Sam Rockwell – Conviction

Alt 1: Matt Damon – True Grit
Alt 2: Ed Harris – The Way Back

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
2. Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham
3. Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
4. Melissa Leo – The Fighter
5. Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole

Alt 1: Amy Adams – The Fighter
Alt 2: Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Kids Are All Right
2. The King’s Speech
3. Another Year
4. Inception
5. Black Swan

Alt 1: Blue Valentine
Alt 2: The Fighter

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Social Network
2. Toy Story 3
3. 127 Hours
4. True Grit
5. Winter’s Bone

Alt 1: Rabbit Hole
Alt 2: How to Train Your Dragon

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Toy Story 3
2. How to Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist

Alt: Despicable Me

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Inside Job
2. Waiting for Superman
3. Restrepo
4. The Tillman Story
5. Exit Through the Gift Shop

Alt 1: Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Alt 2: Wasteland

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

*****COMING SOON*****WAITING ON FINAL LIST OF SUBMISSIONS*****

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. True Grit
2. 127 Hours
3. Inception
4. Shutter Island
5. The Way Back

Alt 1: Black Swan
Alt 2: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part I

BEST EDITING

1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. 127 Hours
4. The King’s Speech
5. Black Swan

Alt 1: True Grit
Alt 2: The Fighter

BEST ART DIRECTION

1. The King’s Speech
2. Alice in Wonderland
3. Inception
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part I
5. Shutter Island

Alt 1: True Grit
Alt 2: TRON Legacy

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Alice in Wonderland
2. The King’s Speech
3. True Grit
4. The Tempest
5. Get Low

Alt 1: Secretariat
Alt 2: Robin Hood

BEST SOUND EFFECTS MIXING

1. Inception
2. TRON Legacy
3. 127 Hours
4. Toy Story 3
5. True Grit

Alt 1: Robin Hood
Alt 2: Iron Man 2

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

1. Toy Story 3
2. Inception
3. TRON Legacy
4. 127 Hours
5. How to Train Your Dragon

Alt 1: Iron Man 2
Alt 2: Robin Hood

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. TRON Legacy
2. Inception
3. Alice in Wonderland
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part I
5. Iron Man 2

Alt: 1: Clash of the Titans
Alt 2: The Last Airbender

BEST MAKE-UP EFFECTS

1. Alice in Wonderland
2. Black Swan
3. The Wolfman

Alt: Splice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The King’s Speech
2. Never Let Me Go
3. Inception
4. Toy Story 3
5. True Grit

Alt 1: How to Train Your Dragon
Alt 2: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

*****COMING SOON*****WAITING ON FINAL LIST OF SUBMISSIONS*****

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  1. Dan G.
    November 27, 2010 at 2:01 pm

    Sounds legit. lovin the boyle love

  2. November 27, 2010 at 2:36 pm

    Indeed. Tis a great movie. But I hate when a director turns in a great career of work and then suddenly starts getting nominated for everything after one thing breaks the mold. I mean nothing he’s ever done has ever equaled “Trainspotting.”

    • ASherman
      November 27, 2010 at 3:04 pm

      Shallow Grave is better than Trainspotting.

  3. November 27, 2010 at 3:11 pm

    You and your Shallow Grave.

  4. Dan G.
    November 27, 2010 at 6:06 pm

    I am, however, interested to see you left The Ghost Writer out of the running for anything. Adapted screenplay dark horse?

  5. November 27, 2010 at 7:39 pm

    I was actually very close to giving it the Number 7 spot for that. Other than that, though, it’s going to be popular in Europe, but not so much in America. I very much doubt the AMPAS will go for it, especially with the strong fields.

  6. November 27, 2010 at 8:34 pm

    Good choices, though I’d love to see Blue Valentine somewhere in there too
    I thought Ryan Gosling was absolutely amazing in that film.
    http://moviegeekblog.wordpress.com/

  7. November 28, 2010 at 11:30 am

    Gosling is, in my opinion, probably the best actor of his generation. Therefore, nothing would really make me happier than seeing him receive his second nomination. However, I’m really not convinced of the banter that the NC-17 rating (absurd as it may be) is actually doing it better than good. Rarely ever do films with that type of rating make it to the Oscars without editing down, first, and I doubt Weinstein will ever give up that ground.

    My dream is that Duvall or even Bridges (no matter how much I love him) will fall out of the race, because if Eisenberg doesn’t make it, I will not be a happy camper.

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